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Titans vs Ravens Props: Can Derrick Henry’s Incredible Run Continue?

Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry has been running over the competition for the last two months. Can he keep it going in the AFC Divisional round versus the Ravens? Photo by Mario957 (Wiki Commons).
  • The Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens clash in the AFC Divisional Playoffs on Saturday (Jan. 11, 8:15 pm ET)
  • Our Wild Card props were 1-3 last week (-2.67 units)
  • Derrick Henry has rushed for 393 yards on 66 attempts over his last two games

Upsets reigned supreme on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL playoffs, but now the heavyweights are set to join the party in the Divisional Round. Speaking of heavyweights, Derrick Henry ripped the New England Patriots for 182 rushing yards on 34 attempts in the Wild Card round, and now will square off against the AFC’s top seed in Baltimore.

Henry has been on absolute tear since the beginning of November, but can he keep it going against the Ravens fifth-ranked run defense?

Prop #1: Derrick Henry Over/Under 22.5 Carries

Carries Odds
Over 22.5 -113
Under 22.5 -113

All odds taken Jan. 10th

Henry has averaged 24.7 carries over his past seven games, but keep in mind six of those contests were victories. Over the last two weeks, he’s rushed for a combined 393 yards and four touchdowns on 66 carries.

He led the league in rushing this season, and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in six of his past seven outings. He’s the NFL’s tallest and heaviest running back, and he led the league in yards after contact and was third in broken tackles.

Unfortunately for the Titans, they’re 10-point road underdogs on Saturday, so game script is unlikely to be in Henry’s favor. His usage has been extraordinary in Tennessee victories this season, but it’s fallen off dramatically in games where they’ve been forced to play catch-up.

Derrick Henry in Losses This Season

Week Opponent Carries Yards
2 IND 15 82
3 JAX 17 44
5 BUF 20 78
6 DEN 16 28
9 CAR 13 63
15 HOU 21 86

Henry hasn’t topped 21 carries in any loss this season and the Titans project to run significantly fewer plays than normal versus the Ravens. Baltimore led the league in time of possession, hogging the ball for an average of 35 minutes and 30 seconds in home games. The Ravens limited opponents to an NFL low 57.6 plays per game, and if they jump out to an early lead, Tennessee will be forced to throw to keep up.

Pick: Henry Under 22.5 carries (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Mark Andrews Over/Under 51.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 51.5 -113
Under 51.5 -113

Make no mistake, the Ravens want to run the ball as much as possible, but when they do throw, their target distribution is incredibly narrow. Mark Andrews has seen 25.4% of Baltimore’s targets since Week 9 and 28.65% of the team’s total air yards this season.

Last time out (Week 16 versus Cleveland), Andrews hauled in six of his nine targets for 93 yards and two scores. He eclipsed 51.5 receiving yards in 47% of his games this season, and only three teams have given up more tight end production than the Titans this season. Over the last six weeks, Tennessee has allowed 72 or more receiving yards to Jack Doyle, Darren Waller and Jared Cook, and last week, Patriots tight end Ben Watson has his second-most productive game of the season.

Andrews’ matchup versus the Titans was already mouth watering and now looks to be enhanced by the fact that the Titans premier coverage linebacker, Jayon Brown, is unlikely to play.

Pick: Andrews Over 51.5 receiving yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

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