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Odds on Tom Brady’s Future: Browns Favored to Sign Him if He Leaves Pats

Tom Brady looking solemn
Has Tom Brady quarterbacked his last game for the New England Patriots? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • If he leaves the New England Patriots, oddsmakers are offering +550 odds that Tom Brady’s next NFL destination will be the Cleveland Browns
  • The sportsbook is also offering -200 odds that Brady stays with the Pats in a separate prop wager
  • Oddsmakers are offering -1000 odds that Brady won’t retire from football prior to the 2020 season

Where is Tom Brady’s football future headed?

Will the New England Patriots’ six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback stand with the Pats? Is he headed to another NFL team for the 2020 season? Or, is Brady, 42, destined to call it quits before the 2020 season gets underway?

Speculation is running rampant regarding Brady’s options for 2020 following New England’s 20-13 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card playoff game. And oddsmakers wasted no time putting forth a series of prop wagers on what might be next for the GOAT.

The sportsbook is offering straightforward yes/no wagers on whether Brady’s destiny is to stay with the Patriots, or retire from football. There’s also a separate prop ranking the odds on Brady signing as a free agent with another NFL team.

Tom Brady’s NFL Team For Week 1, 2020

Team Odds
Cleveland Browns +550
Carolina Panthers +600
Las Vegas Raiders +600
Los Angeles Chargers +600
Dallas Cowboys +700
Indianapolis Colts +800
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +900
Minnesota Vikings +1200
Denver Broncos +1200
Miami Dolphins +1400
Chicago Bears +1600
New Orleans Saints +1600
New York Giants +2000
New York Jets +2000
Arizona Cardinals +2500
Cincinnati Bengals +2500
Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
Los Angeles Rams +2500
Philadelphia Eagles +2500
Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
Washington Redskins +3300

Odds taken Jan. 5. Note: Wager only offers action if Brady leaves the Pats.

Brady’s final pass of Saturday’s game, perhaps his final pass as a Patriot, was a pick-six. Logan Ryan, his former New England teammate, had barely taken his interception to the house when discussions were launched whether Brady would be seeking a new home for 2020.

 

In his post-game media session, Brady danced around questions about next season. He insisted he can’t predict the future, so he won’t even try.

Fortunately, not everyone is governed by such notions.

Brady’s Bunch Of Options

Establishing Cleveland as the chalk certainly seems predicated on Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels filling the vacant head coaching position with the Browns. But are the Browns ready to move on from Baker Mayfield?

“Who knows what the future holds? We’ll leave it at that.” – Tom Brady

There’s been speculation on a connection between Brady and the Chargers for some time now. In October, sportsbooks listed the Chargers as the +275 chalk should Brady move on from the Patriots in 2020.

The Chargers are uncertain about the status of Philip Rivers going forward. They were a playoff team a year ago, and Brady would be a sensational drawing card as the team moves into its new stadium next season.

Jacoby Brissett used to be Brady’s understudy with the Pats. In two seasons as the Colts starter, he’s guided Indy to losing campaigns. The Colts are a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.

Imagine Brady winning his final Super Bowl with Peyton Manning’s old team.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+600).

Will Tom Brady Be On Pats Roster Week 1 of 2020 NFL Season?

Outcome Odds
Yes -200
No +150

There’s a couple of solid reasons to believe that Brady stays put with the Pats. Firstly, New England really doesn’t have an option to replace Brady at this point. The Patriots could draft a QB and allow Brady to mentor him until he’s ready to take over.

Secondly, there’s the cap hit a Brady departure would cost the team. Should they opt not to re-sign him, it costs the Patriots $13.5 million in cap space next season, and $6.75 million in 2021.

Pick: Yes (-200).

Will Tom Brady Retire Before Week 1 of 2020 NFL Season?

Outcome Odds
Yes +600
No -1000

This is the safest bet of the bunch. Saturday, Brady called it “pretty unlikely” that he’d retire. He’s previously stated a desire to play until he’s 45.

Vinny Testaverde, Steve DeBerg and Warren Moon all started an NFL game at age 44. Brady wants to break that record.

Pick: No (-1000).

Pats Outcomes If Brady Plays 2020 NFL Season?

Outcome Yes Odds No Odds
Make Playoffs -700 +400
Win Division -200 +150
Win Super Bowl +1200 -2500

The Patriots gave off every indication this season that they are a team in transition.  The Buffalo Bills look to be the heir apparents in the AFC East.

New England missed the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs for the first time in a decade. Play a no parlay on all three of these props.

New England Patriots 2020 Season Win Total With Brady

Total No Odds
Over 10 -110
Under 10 -130

The Pats played the softest schedule in the NFL this season and went 12-4. But the only other division winner they beat was the 9-7 NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Speaking of 9-7, that sounds like a good number for New England’s record next season.

Pick: Under 10 (-130).

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