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Total in Patriots vs Redskins Game Has Dropped from 47.5 to 42.5

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 2:21 PM PDT

Washington Redskins
Will Colt McCoy find his way onto the field this week for Washington? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • The total for Sunday’s Patriots-Redskins game has fallen to just 42.5
  • Washington has yet to publicly name a starting QB
  • Patriots defense has been one of the best in the league through four weeks of the season

The over/under of this Sunday’s Patriots vs. Redskins game took a dive recently, and it’s not a fluke.

Oddsmakers took note of the uncertainty expressed by Jay Gruden on Wednesday, when the Washington head coach met with media members and opted not to name a starting quarterback ahead of game time.

New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
New England Patriots -1000 -15 (-110) Over 42.5 (-110)
Washington Redskins +664 +15 (-110) Under 42.5 (-110)

Odds taken 10/03/19.

Gruden Lost on QB Choice

Jay Gruden was honest with reporters this week when he wouldn’t make a decision on a possible starting quarterback this week against New England.

Gruden’s options, to be fair, are grim. Case Keenum is questionable with a foot injury for a second consecutive week, and left last week’s game against the Giants after completing just 6 of 11 passes for 37 yards with an interception.

Dwayne Haskins, the 2019 first-rounder who replaced Keenum had three of his 17 pass attempts picked off in his underwhelming NFL debut. There’s also Colt McCoy, who broke his leg last December and hasn’t played in an NFL game since.

None of those options inspire much confidence in leading an offense to any kind of success against the white-hot Patriots, who unsurprisingly enter as heavy favorites.

New England Running on All Cylinders

The Patriots are scoring 30.5 points per game, good for fourth in the NFL so far through their 4-0 start.

There’s been no uncertainty about the quarterback situation in New England, where 42-year-old Tom Brady looked like his vintage self in the first three weeks (303 yards/game, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions) before struggling on the road against a strong Bills defense.

Running the ball hasn’t been as much of a strength as the Patriots would like (3.2 yards/carry, 28th in the NFL), but they haven’t trailed for a single snap this year and therefore are often running the ball in predictable game scripts. In time, Sony Michel is sure to break out.

If there’s one problem here, it lies with the team’s all-time scoring machine: Stephen Gostkowski. The kicker was placed on injured reserve Wednesday with a hip injury and the Patriots will have to replace him in a matter of days.

Patriots Defense Has Carried Them

It seems crazy to say, but the Patriots’ defense has been its actual strong suit. They’ve allowed just 6.8 points/game and 243 yards/game, which are both tops in the NFL.

So if you thought taking the over on 42.5 points with such a high-scoring offense, think again.

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As you’ll see in the New England Patriots vs Washington Redskins odds & stats, games involving New England have finished under the total points mark three out of four games so far.

The Patriots are doing their part offensively — topping 30 points three of four games — but they’re not letting their opponents keep up.

This game is very much at risk of having a repeated result. New England’s defense is likely to feast on whichever quarterback Gruden decides upon.

Pick: Stick with the under (42.5), but revisit the situation if the mark continues dropping.

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