NFL Touchdown Picks for Saturday: Ravens vs Packers, Texans vs Chargers Anytime TD Bets

• Saturday brings two marquee NFL games: Texans vs Chargers (4:30 pm ET) and Ravens vs Packers (8:00 pm ET)
• I have analyzed the anytime TD odds and stats to find the best touchdown-scorer picks
• See the top anytime touchdown best for December 27th

Two marquee matchups are on the NFL schedule this Saturday (Dec. 27th): Houston Texans (10-5, 4-3 away) vs Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, 6-2 home), and Baltimore Ravens (7-8, 4-2 away) vs Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, 5-2 home).

Understanding which players consistently find the end zone forms the foundation of successful touchdown prop analysis. These are the athletes who command high-value touches near the goal line and possess the proven ability to convert opportunities into points. Below, I have set out relevant touchdown-scorer stats and my favorite touchdown pick for each of today’s games.

Jump to: HOU vs LAC TD PICKS || BAL vs GB TD PICKS

NFL’s Elite Touchdown Producers: Consistency Meets Opportunity

Total Touchdown Leaders

1. Jonathan Taylor (19)
2. Jahmyr Gibbs (17)
3. Christian McCaffrey (16)
4. Josh Jacobs (14)
5. Travis Etienne Jr (13)
6. Javonte Williams (13)
7. Kyren Williams (13)
8. De’Von Achane (12)
9. Derrick Henry (12)
10. RJ Harvey (12)

Jonathan Taylor has separated himself as the league’s premier touchdown machine, establishing a commanding lead in total scores. Among our featured players, Derrick Henry continues his assault on the record books despite being 30 years old, coming off a dominant two-touchdown performance against New England where he punched in scores from 21 and two yards out. The veteran running back now sits just two rushing touchdowns away from tying Adrian Peterson for fourth place on the NFL’s all-time rushing touchdown list.

Josh Jacobs has accumulated 13 rushing touchdowns while maintaining a perfect touchdown-per-game average. His 3.71 red-zone opportunities per game make him the Packers’ unquestioned goal-line weapon.

The following table highlights the featured players and their Week 17 matchup dynamics:

Josh Jacobs enters Week 17 facing a Ravens defense that ranks 16th in points allowed at 23.20 per game. This middle-of-the-pack scoring defense recently surrendered 28 points to New England, suggesting potential vulnerability at Lambeau Field. With odds at -115 and his consistent touchdown production, Jacobs presents strong value for home bettors.

Derrick Henry confronts a more formidable challenge against Green Bay’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (20.20 PPG). However, bookmakers still view him as a prime candidate at -106 odds, reflecting his elite talent and heavy goal-line usage averaging 3.4 red zone touches per game.

Dissecting Matchup-Specific Defensive Profiles

Saturday’s games present fascinating contrasts in defensive philosophy and execution:

The Ravens’ pass defense represents the clearest vulnerability in our featured contests, surrendering 254.20 yards per game through the air. This creates intriguing opportunities for Green Bay’s receiving corps at Lambeau Field. With quarterback Jordan Love’s pocket presence and the team’s efficient red zone operation (58.9% conversion rate), several Packers pass catchers offer compelling touchdown value:

• Christian Watson (+213)
• Romeo Doubs (+233)
• Jayden Reed (+237)

Conversely, the Packers’ stingy run defense (103.80 yards allowed per game) presents a legitimate test for Derrick Henry (-106). While his odds reflect elite status and goal-line usage, he’ll need to rely on raw talent against a defense that rarely breaks in ground situations.

This AFC showdown projects as a low-scoring affair featuring two of the league’s more complete defensive units. The Chargers’ defense excels across all phases, allowing just 103.80 rushing yards and 195.27 passing yards per game. This environment makes Nico Collins (+170) and Jo’Quavious Marks (+162) true value propositions, banking on individual talent to overcome system-wide defensive excellence.

Los Angeles faces an equally daunting challenge against Houston’s elite defense, which has an elite run defense (96.20 yards allowed) while maintaining exceptional pass coverage (197.60 yards allowed). Omarion Hampton (+140) must navigate one of the league’s most punishing front sevens, making his plus-money odds a high-risk, high-reward proposition in what could be a field position battle.

Red-Zone Offensive Efficiency Analysis

The NFL’s most generous red zone defenses (highest opponent scoring percentage) include:

1. Dallas Cowboys (50.00%)
2. Washington Commanders (48.12%)
3. New York Jets (47.90%)
4. Arizona Cardinals (46.88%)
5. New York Giants (45.34%)

Since none of the four teams in action today are facing bottom-five red-zone defenses, evaluating their offensive red-zone conversion rates becomes paramount:

• Green Bay Packers (58.9% Red Zone TD Conversion Rate): The Packers’ elite red zone efficiency strongly supports Josh Jacobs (-115) as a touchdown candidate. His goal-line workload combined with Green Bay’s ability to finish drives creates multiple high-percentage scoring opportunities.
• Baltimore Ravens (45.3% Red Zone TD Conversion Rate): The Ravens’ surprising red zone struggles add context to Derrick Henry’s (-106) odds. His short price reflects talent-driven expectations rather than system efficiency, making him a bet on individual excellence over offensive coordination.
• Los Angeles Chargers (50.0% Red Zone TD Conversion Rate): The Chargers’ average red zone performance suggests Omarion Hampton (+140) will have opportunities, though not at an elevated frequency. His plus-money odds reflect both matchup difficulty and system limitations.
• Houston Texans (45.1% Red Zone TD Conversion Rate): Houston’s red zone inefficiency adds intrigue to Nico Collins (+170). His plus-money odds account for both facing elite defense and playing within a system that doesn’t consistently finish drives, creating legitimate value for bettors willing to back individual talent over team trends.

Texans vs Chargers TD Scorer Odds & Picks

Best Anytime Touchdown Pick: Nico Collins (+175) at BetMGM

Nico Collins of the Houston Texans stands out as the best anytime touchdown bet with odds of +140. As Houston’s clear WR1, Collins should command heavy target volume from CJ Stroud, especially against a potentially undermanned Chargers secondary. His role in a potent passing attack combined with big plus-money odds exudes +EV in this crucial AFC matchup.

Ravens vs Packers Anytime Touchdown Odds & Picks

Best Anytime Touchdown Pick: Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110) at DraftKings

Given the expected run-heavy nature of this game and the Packers’ reliance on their ground attack with quarterback Jordan Love sidelined, Josh Jacobs is a strong candidate to find the end zone.

Derrick Henry (-110) for the Ravens is also a very strong option if you’re looking for another reliable scorer in a game where rushing touchdowns are likely to be prevalent.