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Updated Odds to Lead NFL in Sacks with 3 Games Left – Donald Favored Over Watt

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Dec 16, 2020 · 7:18 AM PST

Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald
Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (99), left, sprints towards New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton (1), not shown, past New England Patriots offensive tackle Justin Herron (75) during an NFL football game Thursday, Dec. 10, 2020, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
  • Aaron Donald currently leads the NFL with 12.5 sacks
  • Donald and the Los Angeles Rams will face the New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals in their final three games
  • TJ Watt might have a tough time closing the gap given the injuries to the Pittsburgh Steelers other key edge rusher, Bud Dupree. Which player is the best bet to have the most sacks this year?

With just three games left in the 2020 NFL regular season, the race to lead the league in sacks is heating up. Aaron Donald currently leads the way with 12.5 sacks, which is why he’s favored to win this prop at -105. However, five other players are within 2.5 sacks, so there is some tight competition. Which player is the best bet to win here?

2020 NFL Sack Leader Odds

Player Odds
Aaron Donald (Rams, DT) -105
TJ Watt (Steelers, OLB) +120
Myles Garrett (Browns, DE) +600
Za’Darius Smith (Packers, OLD) +1000
Trey Hendrickson (Saints, DE) +1700
Haason Reddick (Cardinals, OLB) +3200
Shaq Barrett (Buccaneers, OLB)  +3200

Odds as of December 14th at FanDuel

Donald Is the Frontrunner

One reason why Los Angeles Rams tackle Aaron Donald is favored to win this prop is because he has compiled 12.5 sacks this season in 13 games played. He’s been on fire of late as he has 4.5 sacks in his last four contests. He’s collected at least a half-sack in all but three games this season, so he will really have to hit the skids to blow this.

What’s working in his favor is the remaining schedule. The Rams will host the New York Jets this week, who have allowed the eighth-most sacks. After that, they’ll face the Seattle Seahawks, who have allowed the fourth-most. The last matchup will a contest with the Arizona Cardinals and Donald had a sack the first time these teams met.

Donald looks like he’s in great shape to finish the year strong. He’s been playing really well, he’s healthy and the schedule is conducive to him being productive.

Watt Is Slowing Down

Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker TJ Watt is the closest to Donald as Watt has compiled 12.0 sacks on the year. Like the Steelers, Watt was shot out of a cannon to start the year but has slowed down of late. He had nine sacks in his first nine games and registered at least a sack in seven of those games. He has gone sack-less in two of his last four outings and has three sacks in that span.

A bigger issue for Watt going forward is that the Steelers linebacking corps has been really banged up. Bud Dupree lined up opposite of Watt and was a force, notching eight sacks in 11 games. That prevented teams from focusing too much attention on Watt. Dupree is out for the year, as is Devin Bush, another star linebacker, so that means Watt has a tougher path to sacks.

The other issue for Watt is that he has a tough schedule remaining. There are still two teams with at least nine-wins on the docket with Indianapolis and Cleveland coming up. Those two teams are in the top five of fewest sacks allowed, so it could be tough for Watt to close this gap.

Value With Garrett?

One player who could be offering some value is Myles Garrett. The Cleveland Browns edge rusher has played at a Defensive Player of the Year-like level, picking up 10.5 sacks so far. The thinking here is that he’ll get to face the New York Giants and New York Jets in the coming weeks where he could make up some ground.

Only two teams have allowed more sacks than the Giants and the Jets are eighth-worst in that category.

Aaron Donald vs TJ Watt

12.5 2020 Sacks 12.0
-105 Odds to Lead League In Sacks +120
vs New York Jets Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
at Seattle Seahawks Week 16 vs Indianapolis Colts
vs Arizona Cardinals Week 17 at Cleveland Browns

What’s the Best Bet?

The best bet here is Donald as he is in the lead and has a soft schedule coming up. However, with these types of props, you always want to be wary of laying juice. Things can change quickly as we’ve seen with the MVP race where some players were favored early and are not even in the running in the final month of the year.

If you want to take a flier, Garrett would be the guy as he could possibly collect three or four sacks in the next two weeks and then edge out Donald. At +600, that might be worth a shot.

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