Updated Super Bowl MVP Odds & Picks: Patriots/Seahawks
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- Sam Darnold is the +120 favorite to win Super Bowl MVP
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba offers value at +500, while Nick Emmanwori is my favorite longshot at +8000
- Keep reading for the updated Super Bowl MVP odds, plus my picks for Patriots/Seahawks
After nearly two weeks of lead up to Super Bowl 60, the bulk of the markets have been bet into place. The odds you see on Saturday and Sunday morning aren’t likely to move much before kickoff, meaning you’re probably not going to get a better number on your favorite MVP bet.
The award has been historically dominated by quarterbacks in the past, with a QB winning in five of the past six years. If there was ever a season and a game for a skill position or defensive player to raise the trophy it would be this year, as both Sam Darnold and Drake Maye have been plagued by inconsistency.
I’m going to avoid the QB’s with my Super Bowl MVP picks, zeroing in on three Seahawks I believe can take home the hardware.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
My favorite selection is recently named offensive player of the year Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +500, who’s the heart and soul of the Seattle offense. The last two non-QB’s to win MVP have been receivers, and JSN can absolutely find a ceiling type outcome versus this New England defense.
I’m also betting on Rashid Shaheed at +3000 and Nick Emmanwori at +8000. If you’re wondering why no Patriots made my card, it’s because I don’t believe they’re going to put up much of a fight in the Big Game.
Odds as of 5 pm ET on Feb 6th. Get the DraftKings promo code to score a bonus to bet on Super Bowl 60.
Super Bowl MVP Picks #1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards during the regular season, and just posted 10/153/1 line in the NFC Championship. He was responsible for 44% of Darnold’s passing yards this season, and the Pats are vulnerable against elite wide receiver talent.
New England ranked last against opposing number one wide receivers this season, despite not facing many superstars. The best wideout they took on was Atlanta’s Drake London, and he hung 118 yards and 3 TD on them.
Sure, Christian Gonzalez is a top corner, but JSN can get loose against anyone, and also moves all around the formation. The Patriots play one of the man heaviest schemes in the NFL, and Smith-Njigba ranked third in the league in yards per routes run versus that type of coverage.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Stats vs Man Coverage
I know what you’re thinking: if JSN has a big game Darnold will as well, but that’s not necessarily the case. Darnold is incredibly turnover prone and can sink his MVP chances with giveaways and too many sacks. The total of the contest is also relatively low in the Super Bowl odds, and if Darnold doesn’t throw for multiple scores his chances of winning MVP are greatly diminished.
I can easily envision a scenario where JSN puts up big reception and yardage totals, with Darnold underwhelming.
- Super Bowl MVP Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500)
Super Bowl MVP Picks #2: Rashid Shaheed
On to Shaheed next, who has multiple outs to steal this award. He’s Seattle’s best deep threat, and can easily bust one or two long touchdowns through the air. Shaheed is also one of the best returners in football, taking back multiple kicks for scores since joining the Seahawks.
A dream scenario would be a long receiving touchdown and a kickoff return, and while that may seem unlikely, it’s definitely well within his range of outcomes given his world class speed.
- Super Bowl MVP Pick: Rashid Shaheed (+3000)
Super Bowl MVP Picks #3: Nick Emmanwori
Just two defensive players have won Super Bowl MVP over the last 12 years, and I believe Emmanwori can be the next. The recipe for a defensive player to win the award is to wreck the game through sacks, interceptions, tackles for loss and a defensive score. Not very many players can check all of those buckets, but Emmanwori certainly can.
The jack-of-all trades rookie is a star in the making. He lines up all over the field and excels in coverage, pass rush and run defense. Emmanwori is also a special teams wizard capable of blocking kicks, just like he did in the regular season.
If there’s a concern it’s that he’s dealing with an ankle injury, but at +8000 I’ll gladly take the risk that he can play through the pain and put up a career defining performance.
- Super Bowl MVP Pick: Nick Emmanwori (+8000)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
