Vikings vs Chargers Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings on Thursday Night Football
• LA ranks 30th in successful run rate allowed, and has the third worst pass rush grade
• See below for my Vikings vs Chargers picks and predictions, plus the closing lines

Two teams desperate for a victory square off on Thursday Night Football as the Vikings (3-3, 2-1 away) visit the Chargers (4-3, 2-2 home). The spread has fluctuated between LA -3 and -3.5 all week per the TNF odds, and I’m looking to back the underdog in what should be a high-scoring game.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA, and on Amazon Prime.

Vikings vs Chargers Picks

Minnesota’s offense has been a major disappointment so far, but this is a get right spot. I’m betting Justin Jefferson and Co. +3.5 as my favorite Vikings vs Chargers pick, as the Vikes have exploitable matchups on the ground and through the air.

LA Chargers Defense

Let’s start with the LA run defense, that’s been gashed by the Dolphins and Colts in consecutive weeks. The Chargers rank 30th in successful run rate allowed, yards per carry and explosive runs surrendered. That’s good news for Jordan Mason and the middling Minnesota rushing attack, that grades out in the bottom-11 per PFF.

When the Vikings run game is successful, it’s usually a good indicator of success. Minnesota is 3-0 this season when they average at least 3.9 yards per carry.

As for the Chargers pass defense, it’s nearly as underwhelming as their play versus the run. LA is 30th in pass rush grade per PFF, and in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate. That means Carson Wentz should have plenty of time to operate, and few quarterbacks have a better wide receiver duo to throw to in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Keeping the pocket clean for Wentz is paramount for his success. Wentz’s passing grade falls from 67.6 to 35.4 under pressure, while his completion percentage dips from 71% to 56%.

Vikings vs Chargers Predictions

The Chargers Super Bowl odds are fading due to their defensive play, but there’s still plenty to like about their offense. Justin Herbert leads the NFL in passing yards (1,913) and has already thrown 13 TD.

He’ll be under constant pressure tonight thanks to a banged up offensive line and the Minnesota blitz-happy defensive scheme, but that suits him just fine. Herbert has the fourth best passing grade under pressure, and averages just as many yards per attempt under duress as he does when kept clean.

His ability to deal with a muddy pocket is why I like LA’s chances to help take this game over the total. The last time he faced a Flores defense, Herbert went for 405 yards and 3 TD.

Looking for more Texans vs Seahawks plays? Check out the following:

• Vikings vs Chargers same-game parlay
• Vikings vs Chargers player props
• Vikings vs Chargers Anytime Touchdown Scorers

MIN Vikings vs LA Chargers Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps before placing a wager on tonight’s game. The best spot to bet Minnesota +3.5 is at BetMGM, as most other books have dropped the spread back down to a field goal.

Bet365 is offering the best odds on a Vikings upset or over 44.5, while DraftKings has the most favorable Chargers moneyline at -170.

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Per the NFL public betting trends, Vikings +3.5 is shaping up to be a popular wager. Minnesota is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games, while LA has gone four straight games without covering.