- Chiefs have lost three of four, and are 1-4 recently against the spread
- Vikings have won four in a row, including three of four against the spread
- Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below
Narratives in a season can change quickly, based on a team getting hot or a player getting hurt or any number of other factors. In the case of the Minnesota Vikings vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, the Vikings have gotten hot while the Chiefs’ star player is hurt.
That’s why the Vikings find themselves as road favorites against a team that went to the AFC Championship game last year. A few weeks ago, typing that sentence wouldn’t have made much sense. But again, things change quickly.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
|Minnesota Vikings||N/A||-4.0 (-110)||Over 47.5 (-105)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||N/A||+4.0 (-110)||Under 47.5 (-115)|
Odds taken Nov. 2
The Patrick Mahomes Situation
The hottest storyline entering Sunday’s matchup is the status of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the all-pro gunslinger who missed last week’s game with a knee injury.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 31, 2019
According to the team, Mahomes was a limited participant in practice all week and is listed as questionable for the game. But on Saturday, Kansas City activated quarterback Chad Henne from injured reserve, which gives a strong indication that Mahomes will not return to game action just yet.
The #Chiefs move to activate backup QB Chad Henne is an indication that it’ll be another week for QB Patrick Mahomes. The team will work him out pre-game and see how it goes, but at this point, the plan is for Matt Moore to start tomorrow, I’m told.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 2, 2019
Matt Moore started in Mahomes’ place last week and performed fairly well against the Packers, throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns in his first start since 2017.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 29, 2019
Moore, 35, is a serviceable backup with plenty of experience. He doesn’t bring the game-breaking abilities of Mahomes, but the Chiefs have shown they aren’t totally lost with him at the helm.
Against the Spread Dread
At 5-3, Kansas City is still a strong team in playoff position in the AFC. But that means little to bettors, who’ve been burned by a team that is 4-4 against the spread — including 1-4 ATS in recent weeks.
What’s even more startling is Kansas City’s 1-3 ATS record at home this year. So if you thought Arrowhead Stadium might give the Chiefs some kind of edge this week, think again.
— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2019
Part of that might be due to the uncertainty of Mahomes. Before dislocating his knee cap against Denver two games ago, he had already been dealing with a nagging ankle injury. But part of that is simply a growing trend with how the Chiefs have played on both sides of the ball.
Week 5: The Turning Point
Simply put, the Minnesota Vikings were a struggling team entering Week 5, while the Kansas City Chiefs were rolling. The Vikings (2-2 at the time) then went on a four-game win streak while the Chiefs (4-0 at the time) have gone 1-3 since.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 31, 2019
Here’s what Minnesota has done since Week 5: 468.5 yards/game, 314.5 yards allowed/game; one interception and seven sacks against, five interceptions and 12 sacks forced.
Here’s what Kansas City has done since Week 5: 310.3 yards/game, 345.6 yards allowed/game; one interception and eight sacks against, three interceptions and 14 sacks forced.
The number that stands out most here is the Vikings’ offensive output, which has been off the charts. That would be difficult for any defense to stop, including the 24th-ranked Chiefs defense.
It’s never wise to count out the Chiefs, especially now with a healthy Tyreek Hill, but Minnesota is proving itself as a legitimate playoff team with an offense that can run over its opposition. Mahomes might be able to combat that, but there’s less reason to believe Moore is up to the task.
Pick: Minnesota, -4.0 (-110)
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