Vikings-Lions Week 7 Spread Opens as a Pick

• The Lions are last in the NFC North with a 2-2-1 record
• Minnesota posted a season-high 38 points last week against Philadelphia
• Detroit lost to Minnesota twice last year, by a combined score of 51-18

After a crushing one-point road loss against the Green Bay Packers on Monday night, the Detroit Lions will have to turn around on a short week to welcome in the Minnesota Vikings, who are coming off their best offensive performance of the season. In the early going, oddsmakers are undecided on who the favorite should be.

* Odds taken 10/15/19

Now might be the time to strike, especially if you are leaning toward the Lions. As you can see from the Vikings vs. Lions odds and stats, there is reason to believe the Lions will eventually rise as the favorites.

Lions Could Easily Be Undefeated

A quick scan at the Lions’ 2-2-1 record doesn’t tell the whole story. In Week 1, they tied Arizona after leading 24-6 with 12 minutes left. In Week 4, they lost by four to Kansas City, but a pair of red zone turnovers — including a goal-line fumble by Detroit’s Kerryon Johnson — drastically changed that game.

The @Chiefs with the 99-yard scoop 'n score to take the lead in Detroit! #KCvsDET pic.twitter.com/HcmUTXytC6

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 29, 2019

And then on Monday, in a 23-22 loss against the Packers, Detroit suffered from a handful of questionable-at-best calls by the referees.

Two of the most notable ones were “illegal hands to the face” penalties against defensive end Trey Flowers, neither of which appeared to be correctly called. In one instance, it extended a Green Bay drive that resulted in a touchdown. In the other instance, it allowed Green Bay to run down the clock and kick a game-winning field goal.

Here are the two "hands to the face" penalties called against Lions DE Trey Flowers in the 4th quarter #DETvsGB pic.twitter.com/fWCFCccJzg

— Kevin Boilard (@KevinBoilard) October 15, 2019

It doesn’t change the outcome to begrudge these situations, but it does reveal that the Lions have outperformed their record to this point.

Vikings Have Been Vulnerable on the Road

Dating back to 2018, the Vikings have lost five of their last seven road games. This year, that includes losses to the Packers and Bears (in which Minnesota scored a combined 22 points) and a win over the lowly Giants, who played without reigning Rookie of the Year running back Saquon Barkley.

It’s easy to look at Minnesota’s recent 38-point outburst against Philadelphia and get excited, but it’s also important to consider how much less effective the Vikings have been away from home.

Don't want to defend Diggs?

You're going to regret that decision. pic.twitter.com/lQ0zfOHOLt

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 13, 2019

In three home games, the Vikings are plus-five in the turnover battle (seven created, two allowed). In three road games, they are minus-four (three created, seven allowed).

Decision Time

If you want to pick the Vikings, it would be best to wait on placing a bet until later this week. Detroit is likely going to become the favorite as the home team, particularly if defensive starters Quandre Diggs (cornerback) and Mike Daniels (defensive tackle) return to action. Diggs practiced throughout the week before being ruled out on Monday, but he seems fired up to return.

My dawg! We got you bro! https://t.co/rw8CnDnnLm

— Nino (@qdiggs6) October 15, 2019

For now, the smart pick is on Detroit, a deceptively strong team.

Pick: Detroit, pick (-110)