Vikings vs Chargers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Thursday Night Football

• Both coming off losses, the Vikings visit the Chargers to kickoff NFL Week 8
• QB2 Carson Wentz will start in place of injured JJ McCarthy for the fifth straight game
• See my Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions and expert picks for TNF

A pivotal game in both the AFC and NFC Wild-Card races, the Minnesota Vikings (3-3, 2-1 away, 3-3 ATS) travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers (4-3, 2-2 home, 2-4-1 ATS) on Thursday Night Football in Week 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:15 pm PT/8:15 pm ET at SoFi Stadium.

The primary storyline centers on whether Los Angeles can overcome its recent struggles as a betting favorite, or if Minnesota will once again prove profitable as an underdog.

This comprehensive preview sets out my Vikings vs Chargers picks (ATS, O/U, player props), the MIN/LAC public betting splits, and the latest TNF odds.

Go to: ATS Pick || O/U Pick || Prop Pick || Betting Splits || Odds

Vikings vs Chargers Expert Picks & Prediction

This matchup epitomizes the classic betting dilemma between a home favorite struggling to cover spreads and a road underdog with explosive offensive capabilities.

Vikings vs Chargers ATS Pick: Minnesota Vikings +3.5

The data surrounding Los Angeles as a favorite tells a concerning story for Chargers backers. Two critical trends emerge that cannot be ignored:

• The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite
• The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when favored by fewer than seven points

The Chargers, even in the Jim Harbaugh era, have consistently failed to meet elevated expectations when installed as the betting favorite.

The Vikings, conversely, have demonstrated remarkable resilience following losses, posting a 3-1 ATS record in their last four games after a loss. This bounce-back ability, combined with Minnesota’s offensive firepower featuring Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson, makes the points extremely valuable.

While the Vikings struggle against winning teams (1-4 in their last five against opponents above .500), their ability to keep games competitive regardless of opponent makes this spread appealing.

The 3.5-point cushion provides excellent insurance in what projects as a tightly contested affair.

MIN vs LAC Over/Under Pick: Over 44.5 Total Points

The over presents one of the most compelling statistical angles in this matchup, with both teams consistently involved in high-scoring affairs:

MIN Over Trends:

• Over has cashed in five of six games this season
• Perfect 4-0 O/U record in their last four
• Flawless 3-0 O/U record in road games this season

LAC Over Trends:

• Over has hit in seven of last nine home games

The Vikings offense averages 23.5 points per game while converting 52.4% of red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, demonstrating clinical finishing ability. Los Angeles generates 372.7 total yards per contest, creating myriad scoring opportunities throughout games.

With both defenses showing vulnerabilities and the pace of play favoring offensive production, this total appears conservatively set.

Best MIN vs LAC Player Prop to Bet: Herbert Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Herbert’s passing-touchdown prop correlates perfectly with my over bet. The Vikings defense presents a favorable matchup for the Chargers QB, ranking just 19th overall at PFF and 21st in pass-rushing effectiveness.

Herbert should have clean pockets and open passing windows throughout the game. The Chargers’ 261.6 passing YPG, combined with Herbert’s red-zone accuracy, positions him to find the end zone multiple times.

Updated Vikings vs Chargers Odds for TNF

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Viking moneyline has grown as long as +160 (best odds at bet365), while the Chargers are -175 or shorter (best odds at DraftKings). The game total is sitting at 44.5 points at most books, with slight juice favoring the over at -115. Bet365 has moved the total up half-a-point to 45.0 with -110 odds each way.

Based on vig-free calculations, the betting market implies a 61.7% probability for the Chargers to win outright, leaving 38.3% for the Vikings.

Odds commentary as of 1:29 pm ET, October 22nd. The odds in the table will update automatically with the best available price for each market if the NFL odds move before kickoff.

MIN Vikings vs LA Chargers Public-Betting Splits

The NFL public betting patterns reveal a fascinating divergence between casual money and professional action, particularly on the moneyline where sharp-versus-public dynamics are clearly evident.

• Moneyline: 58% of money backing Vikings (+150) on just 27% of ML wagers
• Spread: 54% of money backing Chargers (-3.5) on just 46% of ATS wagers
• Total: 82% of money backing over 44.5, along with 73% of O/U wagers

The most-significant indicator emerges on the moneyline, where the majority of actual dollars wagered favor the underdog Vikings despite the Chargers getting a massive 73% of moneyline bets. This represents a classic sharp-money situation, where larger, often more sophisticated wagers are backing the upset potential at plus-money.

Vikings vs Chargers Statistical Comparison