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Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 11:54 AM PST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady reacting on the field after winning the NFC championship game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady reacts after winning the NFC championship NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay, Wis., Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 31-26 to advance to the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
  • Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season continues Sunday, November 15th
  • Our Best Bets were 1-2 in Week 9 (13-14 overall, -2.28 units)
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 10 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

Football really is a game of inches. We were half a point shy of going 2-1 with our best bets last week, but in the end it was another disappointing 1-2 card.

Much like Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers we’re looking to bounce back in a big way. Tampa Bay was blasted by New Orleans 38-3 in prime time in Week 9, and now they head to Carolina on Sunday looking for blood. No quarterback has been as proficient covering the spread after a loss than Brady, and he’ll get another chance this week as a 5.5-point favorite.

Week 10 ATS Picks

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers TB (-5.5) TB (-5.5) 1
Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins MIA (-1.5) MIA (-1.5) 1
 Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears MIN (-2.5) CHI (+2.5) 1

Odds taken Nov. 12th at FanDuel. See bottom for rest of Week 10 Picks.

Pick #1: Bucs Beat Up Panthers

Brady’s ATS numbers following a loss are incredible. He’s 32-12 ATS overall, and 23-3 ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7-points or less.

Brady and the Bucs have been in this exact same situation twice already in 2020, and he’s come through for bettors in both instances. Following an 11-point loss in Week 1, Tampa Bay blew out the Panthers in Week 2. Then, after a Week 5 loss to the Chicago Bears (also in prime time), the Buccaneers rebounded in Week 6 by destroying the undefeated Green Bay Packers.

On paper, this is a huge mismatch as Tampa Bay is the number two team by DVOA, while Carolina ranks 16th. Brady should have all day to throw against the Panthers non-existent pass rush that ranks last in sack rate and 26th in QB hit rate. All but two of Brady’s touchdown passes this season have come in a clean pocket, and his entire arsenal of weapons have a clean bill of health.

On the other side of the ball, don’t let what the Saints accomplished against this Bucs defense fool you. Tampa Bay is allowing just 2.95 yards per carry and boasts the league’s number four ranked coverage unit according to Pro Football Focus.

Prior to garbage time in their first meeting, the Bucs held the Panthers to 114 total yards and forced four turnovers, while Carolina will be without Christian McCaffrey in this game.

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Pick #2: Dolphins Crush Chargers

The Tua Tagovailoa era is off to a promising start in Miami. After leading the Fins to a convincing victory over the LA Rams in his debut, Tagovailoa outlasted Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in a wildly entertaining affair in Week 9.

Both the Rams and the Cardinals are top-11 teams by DVOA, and now they face the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1.5-point favorite. Los Angeles has dropped six of its past seven, and has surrendered an average of 31.8 points per game over the last five weeks.

The Chargers grade out as the 23rd best offense according to PFF, and could find themselves in trouble against a very underrated Dolphins defense. The Fins rank fourth in the NFL in points allowed, and have forced a turnover in 15 straight games.

They rank 13th in pressure rate and have allowed a TD on just 3.7% of the pass attempts they’ve faced, which is the fourth lowest rate in the league.

Pick #3: Bears Over Vikings

Finally, we have the 5-4 Chicago Bears catching 2.5-points at home to the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings. After dropping five of their first six games, the Vikings enter play fresh off back-to-back wins, while the Bears have dropped three straight.

A major reason for Minny’s recent success has been the standout play of Dalvin Cook. The 25-year-old has racked up 487 total yards and 6 TD during the Vikings two-game winning streak. However, if there’s one thing the Bears excel at it’s stopping the run, just ask Derrick Henry.

Chicago limited him to 68 yards rushing in Week 9, and have now held the Titans, Saints, Rams and Panthers to a measly 3.88 yards per carry over the last four weeks.

The Bears have historically done an excellent job of containing Cook, holding the NFL’s leading rusher to yardage totals of 70, 60, and 10 over three career meetings.

Chicago would love nothing more than to put the game in Kirk Cousins’ hands, as he’s struggled badly in his last three matchups versus the Bears.

Since joining the Vikings, Cousins has averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt against Chicago, throwing as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns, and taking 12 sacks. Not surprisingly, Minnesota has failed to put up much offense in those games, scoring just 6, 10, and 20 points.

Week 10 Quick Picks

  • Texans (+3.5) vs Browns: Houston ranks 18th by DVOA yet is catching 3.5-points against Cleveland who ranks 23rd. Sure, the Texans only two wins have come against the Jaguars, but four of the Browns five wins have come against teams with two wins or less.
  • Giants (+3.5) vs Eagles: New York is 6-3 ATS and should have beaten Philadelphia in their last meeting in Philly.
  • Washington (+4.5) vs Lions: Detroit has been decimated by injuries, while Washington boasts the sixth best defense by DVOA and should get a boost with Alex Smith under center.
  • Packers (-13.5) vs Jaguars: Aaron Rodgers vs Jake Luton. Enough said.
  • Cardinals (-2.5) vs Bills: Arizona wins a shootout in what should be the most entertaining game of the week.
  • Raiders (-4.5) vs Broncos: Las Vegas quietly boasts a top-11 scoring offense, and come in hot having won three of four.
  • Bengals (+6.5) vs Steelers: Pittsburgh may be undefeated, but this is too many points against an underrated Cincy team.
  • 49ers (+9.5) vs Saints: This is a major overreaction after New Orleans destroyed Tampa Bay and San Fran was blown out by Green Bay. The Niners are getting healthy and can certainly keep this game within a score.
  • Seahawks (+2) vs Rams: Seattle bounces back after underwhelming in Buffalo in Week 9.
  • Ravens (-6.5) vs Patriots: Baltimore ran all over New England the last time they met, and should breeze pass this Pats team that is lacking talent at most key positions.

 

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