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Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Nov 15, 2023 · 6:44 AM PST

In the Week 11 NFL Picks ATS, the Lions are 9.5-point home favorites over the Bears.
Lions receiver Jameson Williams celebrates with running back David Montgomery (5) after Montgomery's touchdown against the Panthers during the first half Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, at Ford Field.
  • In the Week 11 NFL picks against the spread, the Detroit Lions are displaying an NFL-best 7-2 ATS record
  • The Carolina Panthers (1-6-2) remain the NFL’s worst ATS team this season
  • All of the Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below

As we undertake assessment of the Week 11 NFL picks against the spread, the fall of 1-2 is continuing. This is the name that’s been chosen to designate my utter inability to pick teams capable of covering this season.

A second successive 1-2 week was turned in with the Week 10 NFL picks ATS. The Seahawks couldn’t get the job done against the Commanders. Let’s not even talk about how the Jaguars fared at home against the 49ers.

Thankfully, the Patriots and Bill Belichick can still be counted on to come through. Oddly enough, that’s now a certainty that New England will fail. The Patriots are an AFC-worst 2-8 ATS this season.

No sense living in the past. Let’s look ahead to the NFL lines for the Week 11 ATS picks.

Entering Week 11, the Detroit Lions have covered in 11 straight divisional games. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have lost straight up in 11 successive divisional games. And the Lions are an NFL-leading 7-2 ATS.

The Jaguars are favored at home over the Tennessee Titans by 6.5 points. It’s the perfect scenario for a patented underdog cover by Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who is the master of such ploys.

Hard to say which is more surprising – that the Denver Broncos have won three games in a row, or that the Broncos are favored over the Minnesota Vikings in the Week 11 SNF game.

Now, let’s check out all the top NFL picks and best early bets in the Week 11 ATS picks.

Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions DET -9.5 DET 1
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars JAX -6.5 TEN 1
Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos DEN -2.5 MIN 1

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Lions, Titans and Vikings.

Odds as of November 15 at ESPN BET. Get one of the best NFL betting promos to bet on all of your NFL Week 11 ATS picks here.

NFL ATS Picks 1: Titans Cover Against Jaguars

The Jaguars, who were 5-0 ATS in the five games to last Sunday’s home debacle against San Francisco, didn’t just lose the game. They lost the plot. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings with Tennessee.

As Titans coach, Vrabel is 29-21-1 ATS as a betting underdog. Tennessee is 8-5 ATS through the past 13 games against AFC South opponents. The Titans covered as 6-point underdogs in a 20-16 loss at Jacksonville last season.

NFL ATS Picks: Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-105), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 2: Bet Lions In a Bears Market

With a win at home Sunday over Chicago, Detroit will be 8-2 in an NFL season for the first time since 1962. That was so long ago, JFK was in the White House. Detroit is 15-5 ATS in the club’s past 20 home games.

The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Chicago is also 2-12 ATS in the past 14 games against NFC North opposition. Even if QB1 Justin Fields is back from his dislocated thumb, it’s still difficult to locate a reason to bet the Bears.

NFL ATS Picks: Detroit Lions -9.5 (-115), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 3: Vikings Burst Broncos Bubble

The Vikings have won and covered in five straight and six of the last seven. They haven’t missed a beat with Joshua Dobbs at QB. He’s 2-0 straight up and ATS. Add to that the fact that expectations are Justin Jefferson, the NFL’s best WR, will be activated for this game.

As impressive as Denver’s three-game run of success is, this isn’t a team that fares well with prosperity. The Broncos are 2-12-1 ATS the last 15 times they kicked off as the betting chalk.

NFL ATS Picks: Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (-110), 1 unit

Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Bengals (+3.5) vs Ravens: Cincinnati can forget the AFC North title with a loss in this game. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog
  • Giants (+9.5) vs Commanders: Sure, the Giants are terrible. But are they nearly 10 points more terrible than Washington? Oh, and New York is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 facing the Commanders
  • Cowboys (-10.5) vs Panthers: Like most bullies, the Cowboys are quite effective at beating up lousy opposition
  • Cardinals (+4) vs Texans: Kyler Murray was showing flashes of his old self in beating the Falcons last week
  • Steelers (+3.5) vs Browns: Does the NFL’s most surprising 6-3 squad have another trick up their sleeves? Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 against Cleveland
  • Packers (+3) vs Chargers: A west coast team at Lambeau in November is never a winning recipe, even against bad Packers teams
  • Dolphins (-12.5) vs Raiders: Like Dallas, the Dolphins are a team that feasts on the NFL’s weaklings
  • 49ers (-11.5) vs Buccaneers: San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 home games
  • Jets (+7) vs Bills: Does anybody still believe in the Bills? Buffalo is 0-6 ATS over the past six games
  • Rams (+1) vs Seahawks: LA is 4-0 ATS at home in the last four games against Seattle
  • Chiefs (-2.5) vs Eagles: Kansas City has won 14 straight November games. Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 as an away underdog


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