NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• NFL Week 11 includes some massive games in both the AFC and NFC playoff races
• The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs visit the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills
• Below, see my favorite NFL Week 11 ATS picks and early lines to target

The Week 11 NFL schedule starts with a huge matchup between the Washington Commanders (7-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) on Thursday Night Football, a game could go a long way to determining the NFC East winner. Sunday is replete with games with big playoff implications, as well, including the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) vs Buffalo Bills (8-2), and Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) vs Cincinnati Bengals (4-6), which both factor into my Week 11 ATS picks.

Early NFL Week 11 ATS Picks

With two of my three ATS picks this week, I am moving the line across zero and taking the underdog to win at plus-money.

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Week 11 ATS Pick #1: Patriots +5.5 (-110) vs Rams

The first pick of Week 11 is the New England Patriots (3-7) to cover as 5.5-point home underdogs against the LA Rams (4-5), who just had their three-game win streak snapped on Monday Night Football against Miami (23-12 home loss). The Patriots, meanwhile, are coming off a hugely impressive 19-3 road victory over Chicago, their second win in three weeks after also beating the Jets (25-22) in Week 8. In Week 9, they narrowly lost on the road to the Titans in overtime (20-17).

In sum, the Pats are playing much better than they did during the first quarter of the season. It isn’t entirely unexpected. They showed their potential in Week 1, upsetting the Bengals 16-10 in Cincinnati as 8.5-point underdogs.

Rookie starter Drake Maye, who’s played four full games and parts of two others, is showing modest signs of improvement, and next week he’ll get to feast on a bad Rams secondary. I took the Dolphins to beat LAR straight-up last night precisely because the Rams rate third-last in the league in coverage according to Pro Football Focus (and aren’t much better against the run).

The New England defense somehow ranks third-worst in the league in terms of D-DVOA might be the best of the bunch. But it’s much more effective than that, in reality. I firmly believe that more than half the league would swap defenses with the Patriots if given the chance. New England will keep this close at home, and don’t be surprised if they win straight-up with the Rams on a short week.

Week 11 ATS Pick #2: Chiefs -1.5 (+118) at Bills

I could just write “Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up as an underdog in his career” and leave it at that. But I won’t. The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) needed a miraculous last-second blocked field goal to keep their perfect record intact against the Broncos on Sunday (16-14) and there are plenty of nits to pick with Mahomes and the KC attack, which is currently 10th in O-DVOA and 11th in scoring (24.3 PPG).

Kansas City took down the Bills in Buffalo in last season’s AFC divisional round (27-24) and the Bills have taken a step back this season, ranking sixth in overall DVOA compared to third at the end of the 2023 regular season.

Every knows the injury issues KC is dealing with on offense (five WRs are on IR) but Buffalo’s receiver room is almost as badly banged up: Keon Coleman didn’t play in Week 10 due to a wrist injury, while Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid also had injury designations.

The Chiefs still have plenty of weapons on offense to move the ball, and they have – terrifyingly – gotten to 9-0 without two-time NFL MVP Mahomes playing very well. If he maintains his 90.3 passer rating, it will be his lowest ever as a starter.

Week 11 ATS Pick #3: Bengals -2.5 (+120) vs Chargers

My last pick is another line I’m moving across zero. The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) head into Week 11 in must-win mode, sitting a game back of a playoff spot and ninth overall in the AFC. The 6-3 LA Chargers are one of the teams the Bengals are trying to track down, and luckily for Joe Burrow and company, this is a team they matchup well against.

The Bengal offense is absolutely electric and can put up points on literally any defense in the league. Over the last nine weeks, Cincy is averaging 28.9 PPG, and that’s while playing a slate of teams that is 46-40 this season. They have also played considerably better on the road this season (3-2) than at home (1-4), while the Chargers are just 4-8 at home over the last one-plus seasons.

The problem for Cincinnati this year has been Lou Anarumo’s defense, which is sixth-worst in both scoring (26.4 PPG) and D-DVOA.  The Charger offense has been above average in terms of efficiency (12th in O-DVOA) but it struggles to find the end zone. The Chargers average just 20.7 PPG and 2.1 TDs/game, which is 22nd in the NFL. (Cincinnati averages 3.3 TDs/game, which is tied for fourth.)

If the Bengals defense can tighten up in the red zone and hold the Chargers to field goals, which most defenses have been able to this year, Cincinnati should be able to pick up a huge road victory. Note that the Bengals are getting 98% of the early money bet against the spread in the NFL public betting percentages for Week 11. Don’t be surprised if this line moves towards Cincinnati over the next couple days.