Week 12 NFL Picks – Best Parlay, Top Bets & +2334 Longshot for Sunday Afternoon

• I’ve cooked up a +2334 longshot parlay for Sunday’s Week 12 NFL slate
• Dak Prescott is 31-13 ATS all-time vs NFC East opponents
• See my Week 12 NFL picks, parlay and top bets for Sunday, below

There’s more than one way to bet football on Sundays. Some bettors like to focus on single outcome wagers, while others love to swing for the fences. I’m typically in the former camp, but every once and a while I like to go big.

This week is one of those weeks, and I’ve put together a well thought out, 5-leg parlay that pays a handsome +2334 if it hits.

Below you’ll find my favorite Week 12 NFL picks, including the best parlay and top picks to make for Sunday.

NFL Best Parlay for Week 12

My favorite longshot NFL parlay for Sunday comes with +2334 odds if you play it at bet365, which had (by far) the best odds at the time of writing.

I also like betting each of these legs as straights as well. I detail the best odds you can find on each leg in my analysis below. If you want to shop for the best odds on over/unders, check out the NFL player props tool.

Cowboys Cover vs Eagles

This is the second game between these NFC rivals after Dallas went toe-to-toe with Philly in Week 1. The Cowboys covered as big underdogs in that matchup, and I like them keep this game close as well.

Let’s start with the anemic Eagles offense. Despite being a top Super Bowl odds contender, this team has no offensive juice. Philadelphia has scored just 26 total points in its last two outings, and won’t have two of its starting offensive linemen for this matchup.

Both Cam Jurgens and Lane Johnson are out, and the ladder injury is massive. The Eagles splits with and without Johnson are shocking. Throughout his career, Philly ranks 3rd in EPA/play with Johnson in the lineup. Without him, they fall to 28th in that metric.

The Dallas defense meanwhile, is trending up. The acquisition of Quinnen Williams is a game-changer, as few players can cave in the interior of an offensive line like him. With Jurgens and Johnson out, the Cowboys pass rush should be able to get home more often, lowering Jalen Hurts ceiling.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas owns a top-7 offense in EPA/play and success rate. The Cowboys have averaged 35+ points per game at Jerry’s World this season, while Dak Prescott absolutely owns the NFC East.

Prescott is 31-13 ATS all-time versus divisional foes at home, and has won 18 straight vs NFC East opponents in Dallas.

Lions Bury Giants

Men lie, women lie, but numbers never lie. That’s a fitting quote to describe the likelihood of a Lions blowout win over the Giants on Sunday.

New York’s defense is truly awful, and doesn’t stand much of a chance versus Detroit indoors. The G-Men’s D ranks bottom-six in success rate and EPA/play, and last in EPA/rush. No team has surrendered more rushing TD than New York (19), while the Lions have not one, but two exceptional backs they can pound the ball with.

Detroit enters play averaging 33+ points at home, while QB Jared Goff is 36-13-1 ATS indoors with the Lions. Goff and Co. will also be hungry coming in off a loss, and historically that’s been bad news for their opponents.

Detroit has covered in 13 straight games following a defeat. They’re also 5-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite over the last two years, and have seven wins by 22+ points during that span.

With Jaxson Dart ruled out, New York will go back to Jameis Winston, and the result isn’t going to be pretty. The Giants are missing their number one receiver and running back, while Lions are the number one rated defense at home in 2025.

Cardinals Keep it Close vs Jaguars

The Jags vs Cards matchup is a perfect buy-low, sell-high opportunity. Jacksonville is the belle of the ball after last week’s destruction of the Chargers, but let’s not forget LA was playing with second and third stringers across its entire offensive line.

Arizona meanwhile, was blown out by San Fran, but a closer look reveals some encouraging offensive signs. For one, the Cardinals outgained the 49ers by 209 yards. Jacoby Brissett set a single game NFL record for completions, and should find plenty of success against the banged up Jags secondary.

Both of Jacksonville’s top corners are hut and could sit on Sunday. The Jags also lost preseason NFL OROY odds contender Travis Hunter for the year, and number one receiver Brian Thomas Jr. might miss as well.

That’s bad news for Trevor Lawrence, who’s not exactly a cover machine as a favorite. He’s 10-15 ATS all-time when laying points, and 7-16 against the spread versus teams with a sub .500 record.

Also working in favor of the Cards, is the health of their defense. Arizona should get both of their top-two corners back for this game, which is huge considering they’ve given up 44 and 41 points in two outings without them.

Another Touchdown for Trey

All it took for Trey McBride to become the best tight end in football was to remove Kyler Murray from the equation. Since Brissett took over the starting role, McBride has been on fire, and I don’t expect him to slow down on Sunday.

In five games with Brissett, McBride is averaging 8.4 catches, and 89 receiving yards per game. He’s been targeted 57 times during that stretch, and has at least one touchdown in all five outings.

Trey McBride with Jacoby Brissett in 2025

Now, McBride gets his most favorable matchup yet. Only the Bengals have allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than the Jaguars this season, while Jacksonville also ranks bottom-six in catches and receiving yards surrendered to that position.

Kelce Carves Up Colts

Patrick Mahomes may not be a threat in the NFL MVP odds this season, but he is having his best statistical campaign since 2022.

Travis Kelce has the biggest benefactor so far, leading the team in targets, catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. Kelce is no longer just catching the ball and falling down either. He’s already racked up 339 yards after the catch, which is 163 more than any of his teammates.

I expect a big performance from Kelce on Sunday, in what’s basically a must win game for KC. The matchup sets up favorably for him, and he’s historically shredded Lou Anarumo defenses, going back to the DC’s days in Cincy. Indy has allowed the sixth most production so far this season to opposing tight ends, and the third most receptions.