By Brady Trettenero in NFL News
Published:
Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season delivered chaos on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and now we turn to Sunday’s slate. My picks target desperate playoff teams and collapsing favorites, while my best bet backs Josh Allen to bounce back in Pittsburgh.
I went 2-1 in Week 12 for another profitable weekend of NFL predictions. My Falcons upset pick cashed when Atlanta handled New Orleans 24-10 as road dogs. The Vikings-Packers Under sailed home at 29 points, giving us more than 10 points of cushion on the 41.5 total.
The only loss was brutal. The Colts had Kansas City down 20-9 entering the fourth quarter at Arrowhead before the collapse. Mahomes erased an 11-point deficit to force overtime, and Harrison Butker won it with a field goal. If you played the +3.5 spread, you survived. But I called it an upset pick, which means moneyline, and that stung.
Let’s get into my Week 13 NFL predictions, best bet, and upset picks for Sunday and Monday’s slate.
The computer model went 0-4 on the Thanksgiving games, missing badly on all three Turkey Day contests and the Black Friday Eagles game. My NFL predictions for Sunday diverge from the computer on the Texans-Colts matchup. The model projects Indianapolis winning 21-17, which wouldn’t even cover the Texans +3.5. But I’m being bold and calling for Houston to win outright.
The Cardinals-Buccaneers projection is essentially a coin flip at 24-24. With Tampa Bay laying 3.5 points, I’m backing Arizona to keep it close or steal one in Raymond James Stadium. The most lopsided projections favor road teams: the Rams crushing Carolina 26-7, the Broncos hammering Washington 28-11, and the Jaguars routing Tennessee 28-11.
This article features straight-up predictions and NFL betting analysis for Week 13. For ATS predictions, get Zach Reger’s NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 13.
Missouri sports betting launches Monday, December 1st, giving fans a new way to bet on the final weeks of the NFL season. Check out the best Missouri betting apps to get ready for launch day.
My best NFL pick for Week 13 backs the desperate Bills to win in Pittsburgh. Buffalo sits at 7-4 and holds the seventh playoff seed by the thinnest of margins. Another loss drops them to 7-5 with Houston breathing down their necks at 6-5.
The Bills have won four of their last five meetings against Pittsburgh, including convincing victories of 38-3 and 31-17 in recent years. Josh Allen owns a 4-1 record against the Steelers with 8 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in those matchups.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense is the worst in the NFL at 258.7 yards allowed per game. Buffalo ranks third in total offense at 381.8 yards per game and fifth in scoring at 28.3 points. Aaron Rodgers will play through a fractured left wrist and looked terrible before the injury, throwing for just 161 yards with 2 picks against the Chargers in Week 11.
Buffalo is missing both starting tackles, which is a concern against T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush. But the Bills’ rushing attack ranks second in the NFL at 147.2 yards per game. James Cook has 1,084 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, and Buffalo is 12-2 when he rushes for 100-plus yards.
Since 2020, the Bills are 23-4 in December and January regular-season games, an 85.2% winning percentage that’s the best in the league. They rallied from 6-6 after Thanksgiving in 2023 to win five straight and capture the division. This team knows how to respond when backed into a corner.
Pittsburgh is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Bears and has dropped four of six. The Steelers rank 27th in total offense at just 292.2 yards per game. With Allen’s historical dominance against this opponent and Pittsburgh’s league-worst pass defense, the Bills win this game.
Check out the full Bills vs Steelers odds and analysis before kickoff Sunday afternoon.
My first upset pick backs Houston’s elite defense to slow down the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Texans vs Colts matchup features the NFL’s best defense against a quarterback playing through a fractured fibula.
The Texans own the NFL’s best defense at 264.3 yards allowed per game and rank second in scoring defense at 16.5 points allowed.
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter form the most terrifying edge-rushing duo in football. Anderson has 10.5 sacks through 11 games and has recorded a sack in six straight contests. Hunter has 11 sacks this season with four games of 2-plus sacks. Against Buffalo last week, the Texans sacked Josh Allen eight times and intercepted him twice.
Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula that showed up on the injury report after the bye week. The injury clearly affected him against Kansas City. Jones completed just 3-of-8 passes for 17 yards in the fourth quarter and overtime as the Colts blew a 20-9 lead. His QBR against blitzes has cratered from 93.4 in Weeks 1-8 to 31.0 since then.
Houston has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, including three straight. These clubs have faced each other 22 times since 2014, and 18 of those games were decided by one score. The Texans know how to win close games in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 8-3, but they’ve lost two of their last three games. The Colts are 5-0 at home this season, but those home wins include overtime victories over Kansas City (23-20) and Atlanta (31-25). They’re winning close games at home, which means variance can swing the other way. Houston has the defense to keep it close and the offense to steal this Week 13 matchup late.
Both teams enter this game on three-game losing streaks. The difference is Tampa Bay’s defense has completely imploded, while Arizona’s backup quarterback has been playing well. See the latest Cardinals vs Buccaneers odds for this afternoon matchup.
The Buccaneers have allowed 106 points over their last three games, an average of 35.3 per contest. They rank 29th in red-zone defense with a 66.67% touchdown rate allowed. Against the Rams on Sunday Night Football, Tampa Bay surrendered five consecutive scoring drives totaling 31 points before halftime in a 34-7 blowout loss.
Baker Mayfield will play through a low-grade AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder that forced him out of the second half against Los Angeles. He didn’t practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday before returning Friday. Mayfield compared this injury to his disastrous 2021 Cleveland season when he played through a torn labrum.
Jacoby Brissett has been legitimately good for Arizona. He’s thrown for 1,867 yards and 11 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions in six starts. Brissett has thrown for at least 250 yards and 2 touchdowns in every start this season. He completed 33-of-49 for 317 yards against Jacksonville last week with zero interceptions.
The betting trends strongly favor Arizona. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS against Tampa Bay in their last five meetings and 8-0 ATS as underdogs on the East Coast in their last eight games. The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS at home in their last six and 1-7 straight up in November games since 2023. This is one of my top NFL upset picks for Week 13.
This is a toss-up game disguised as a home favorite scenario. Arizona is getting three points in a matchup between two equally desperate, equally flawed teams. Take the Cardinals to cover with consideration for the moneyline.
Jones played through the fractured fibula last week and will start despite the injury. Warren is the Colts’ leading receiver with 662 yards and is questionable with an illness. Stroud is expected to return from concussion protocol after Davis Mills went 3-0 in his absence.
Buffalo loses both starting tackles and linebacker Terrel Bernard, one of their best defenders. Rodgers will start with a fractured left wrist in his non-throwing hand after missing Week 12.
Mayfield is trending toward playing after practicing Friday. Irving is expected to return in a hot-hand rotation. Harrison was limited all week attempting to return from appendicitis.
McCarthy remains in concussion protocol. Rookie Max Brosmer will make his first career start. McCarthy has struggled badly this season with just a 57.9 passer rating and 10 interceptions in six games.
New Orleans will be without Kamara, their starting running back. Rookie Devin Neal will lead the backfield. Olave’s potential absence would be a significant blow to the Saints’ passing game.
Kirk Cousins will be without his top receiver for the second straight week.
Washington will again be without its starting quarterback. Marcus Mariota starts for the third consecutive game.
Dart was cleared from concussion protocol Thursday and will start Monday night. He missed the last two games.
Week 13 brings the first significant weather impacts of the season, with wind and rain affecting several NFL betting matchups Sunday.
49ers at Browns: This is the biggest weather concern of the week. Winds sustained around 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Rain showers possible. Bump down to passing attacks and kickers. The total has moved to 36.5.
Bills at Steelers: 60% chance of precipitation with temperatures in the mid-40s. Winds sustained at 6 mph with gusts around 15 mph. Rain more likely before the game than during.
Rams at Panthers: 75% chance of rain with temperatures in the lower 50s. Light winds at 2 mph.
Falcons at Jets: 72% chance of rain with temperatures in the mid-40s. Wind gusts near 12-15 mph.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 3 hours ago
Updated: 3 hours ago
