By Brady Trettenero in NFL News
Published:
Another winning week of NFL predictions is in the book as I went 2-1 in Week 14, cashing both upset picks. The Texans beat the Chiefs 20-10 at Arrowhead as +175 underdogs, and Jacksonville handled the Colts 36-19 at +110. The only miss? Colts-Jaguars Under 46.5, which fell short when the two teams combined for 55 points.
That’s four straight weeks without a losing record since taking over this article mid-season. Knock on wood, of course, as we head into the fourth-last weekend of the NFL regular season.
Week 15 brings snow to Philadelphia and freezing temperatures throughout the league. The computer model predicts three ties but only one upset: Patriots over Bills. I am not buying it. I do not expect Buffalo to lose to New England twice in one season, especially after last week’s uneven shootout over Cincinnati.
My Week 15 NFL picks target a weather-impacted Under in Philly and two plus-money underdogs where I think the betting market hasn’t adjusted for injuries and matchup edges. Here are my Week 15 NFL predictions against our computer model projections.
The model loves home teams this week. It’s projecting the 49ers to beat Tennessee by 18 points, the Jaguars to handle the Jets by 16, and the Texans to cruise past Arizona by 14.
I mostly agree with that approach for my expert NFL picks. Week 15 in December means home field matters more, especially with weather playing a factor in half these games. That’s why I’m backing the Broncos at home as a short dog.
But I’m also finding value on one road team where I think the matchup overrides the venue. The model has three games projected as ties this week – Commanders-Giants at 25-25, Packers-Broncos at 17-17, and Steelers-Dolphins at 20-20. When the computer can’t pick a winner, that tells me the underdog is getting free money with the points.
This article features straight-up predictions and NFL betting analysis for Week 15. For ATS predictions, get NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 15.
My Week 15 NFL best bet is an Over/Under play with obvious sharp action. The Eagles vs Raiders total opened at 39.5 and was bet down to 38.5 early in the week. When pros hammer down a total that’s already below 40, there’s usually very good reason.
Kenny Pickett is making his first start for the Raiders after Geno Smith went down with a shoulder injury. Pickett spent last season in Philadelphia as Jalen Hurts’ backup, which means Vic Fangio’s defense knows his tendencies from watching him in practice every day. That’s not ideal when making your debut against a top-10 defense.
The Raiders are scoring 15.1 points per game, dead last in the NFL. They’ve managed just seven touchdowns in their last six games combined. That’s barely more than one per week. Their running game ranks equally bad at 72.7 yards per game, also last in the league.
Now throw in some brutal weather. Philly’s expecting 2–4 inches of snow and wind gusts up to 40 mph. Wind chill could dip to 10 degrees at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Eagles’ offense hasn’t looked right either. They’ve gone under the total in five straight games, scoring 21 or fewer points each time. That’s their worst offensive drought since 2005. Philly leads the league in three-and-outs, with 29.3% of their drives stalling early.
And now, Lane Johnson is out. That leaves Jalen Hurts vulnerable, especially against Maxx Crosby and his 68.5 career sacks. The offense is already struggling, and missing their best lineman only makes things harder. Hurts has been harassed all season, and without Johnson shielding the edge, I expect the Raiders’ pressure to remain constant.
Eagles vs Raiders features two cold offenses, a snowstorm, and kicking conditions that make 40-yard field goals risky. This one has Under written all over it.
Kicking off my Week 15 NFL upset picks is Washington against the Giants. Yes, the Commanders are 3-10 and on an eight-game skid. But this matchup in the trenches leans their way.
Washington ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing offense at 136.5 yards per game. The Giants rank 31st in rush defense, allowing 154.2 yards per game. That’s a notable advantage for the Commanders’ ground game.
Marcus Mariota is starting for the injured Jayden Daniels. That’s not as bad as it sounds for Washington’s system. Mariota is mobile enough to run the same RPO concepts the offense is built on. He won’t turn the ball over against a Giants defense this banged up.
With the Giants ranked near the bottom against the run, the former Heisman winner just needs to manage the game.
The Giants defense is beat up. Kayvon Thibodeaux is out, and Dexter Lawrence is questionable with a hamstring issue. Even if Lawrence plays, he’s unlikely to be 100%.
The Giants fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowen two weeks ago. They replaced him with Charlie Bullen, an outside linebackers coach who had never called plays at this level. Bullen’s first game as DC saw the Patriots score 33 points last Monday night.
Washington’s plan should be simple: pound the rock with Chris Rodriguez Jr. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns over his last six games. Against a depleted Giants front, they should find plenty of room to run.
On the other side, rookie Jaxson Dart is starting for the Giants. He’s missed games due to concussion issues and has struggled under pressure. Washington has 30 sacks this season. That’s a bad combo for New York.
Over the last six weeks, the Giants have sacked their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and an assistant defensive line coach. Their temporary head coach, Mike Kafka, is simply overwhelmed.
Washington still has Dan Quinn calling defensive plays and a distinct identity on offense. I am siding with the Commanders, and I predict they will win this outright.
My second NFL upset pick is the lone remaining unbeaten home team. The Broncos are 11-0 at home and haven’t lost at Mile High in 14 months. No other team in the NFL can claim that record right now, and the Packers are walking into the toughest road environment in football.
Mile High is more than simply crowd noise. The altitude depletes visiting teams by the fourth quarter, particularly in December. The Broncos have won nine of their last ten games through comebacks, a team record. They have a +50 fourth-quarter point differential, the second-best in the NFL.
Denver’s pass rush is a massive problem for opponents. They’ve got 55 sacks through 14 games and are on pace to challenge the 1984 Bears’ all-time record. Bonitto (12.5 sacks), Cooper (7.5), and Allen (6) lead a very deep group, as 11 players have multiple sacks.
The problem for Green Bay is that they had a 15.5 PFF pass-blocking grade against the Bears in Week 14. This is the worst pass protection performance by any club in a game since 2021. They now face football’s most dominant pass rush.
Jordan Love has been sacked only 18 times all season, which ranks fourth-fewest in the league. But he’s never faced a pass rush like this, especially with Josh Jacobs questionable with a knee injury. If Jacobs can’t go or is limited, Green Bay loses significant pass protection help and short-yardage power. I think that makes them one-dimensional.
Bo Nix is clicking for Denver. He’s completed 70% of his passes over his last three games with just one interception and is averaging 276 passing yards. He’s cleaned up the early-season mechanics and is playing with confidence. Nix is now setting his feet instead of scrambling and overthrowing receivers.
Green Bay has looked great in the NFC North, but Mile High is a different beast. Their communication will be tested, and their offensive line is already struggling. Matt LaFleur is 21-4 in December games, but Denver hasn’t lost at home since October 2024.
Denver can secure a playoff spot with a win and still have a chance at home-field advantage if things go well. I am taking the points and playing the Broncos outright at home.
Lane Johnson missing is huge for Philadelphia. That leaves the Eagles without their best offensive lineman against Maxx Crosby. Carter out on defense is also a big loss up front. Kenny Pickett makes his first start for Las Vegas after Smith went down last week.
Marcus Mariota gets the start for Washington with Daniels sidelined. The Giants defense is in rough shape with Thibodeaux out and Lawrence banged up. Even if Lawrence plays, I don’t expect him to be at full strength.
Green Bay’s backfield is a mess heading into Denver. Jacobs has been limited all week with swelling in his knee. If both Jacobs and Wilson can’t go, Chris Brooks becomes the primary back against Denver’s second-ranked rush defense.
Higgins will miss his second game in the last three weeks with a concussion. That’s a major blow to Cincinnati’s passing attack. Hendrickson on IR for the season is equally devastating for the Bengals’ pass rush. Bateman was limited late in the week for Baltimore.
Harrison is out for the second week in a row and fourth time in the last five games. Big loss for Arizona’s offense. If Chubb can’t go for Houston, Woody Marks will carry the load again.
The big story here is Philip Rivers signing out of retirement. The 44-year-old hasn’t played since 2020 but has a real chance to start Sunday. Riley Leonard is the other option if Shane Steichen doesn’t go with Rivers. Either way, it’s a downgrade for Indianapolis.
Kamara remains out for New Orleans. The 3-10 Saints have little reason to rush him back. Evans returns for Tampa Bay after missing time with a collarbone injury. His 1,000-yard streak is on life support, but I expect him to play Thursday night.
Brady Cook gets the start for New York with both Fields and Tyrod Taylor out. Little practiced fully Friday for Jacksonville, which is a good sign for his availability.
Adams is questionable but I expect him to play. If he sits, Puka Nacua becomes even more of a focal point and Colby Parkinson becomes an intriguing tight end streamer.
Lamb cleared concussion protocol and will play. Ferguson’s status is still up in the air. Addison was limited early in the week for Minnesota.
Achane sustained a rib injury in Week 14 but should be fine for Monday night. Metcalf isn’t expected to miss time after his big Week 14 performance.
Week 15 brings the coldest weather we’ve seen all season, with snow chances and brutal wind conditions in multiple games. I’m factoring weather heavily into my picks this week.
Eagles vs Raiders (Philadelphia):
Snow Saturday night into Sunday morning with 2-4 inches expected. Winds sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Temperature around 35 degrees but wind chill around 10 degrees. This has the greatest weather impact of any game this week.
Bills @ Patriots (New England):
Cold but manageable. Temperatures in the low 30s with winds around 8-10 mph from the northwest. Not enough to significantly impact the game.
Packers @ Broncos (Denver):
Clear skies but cold. Temperature around 28 degrees at kickoff with minimal wind. Altitude is the bigger factor than weather.
Browns @ Bears (Chicago):
Frigid temperatures in the teens with wind chill in single digits. Winds around 12-15 mph. Both teams will lean heavily on the run game.
Vikings @ Cowboys (Dallas):
Indoor stadium. No weather concerns.
Dolphins @ Steelers (Pittsburgh):
Cold temperatures in the low 30s but manageable wind. Miami coming from warm weather to December in Pittsburgh is always an adjustment.
Download the best NFL betting apps to lock in your Week 15 NFL predictions before Sunday’s slate kicks off.
USE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
BET & GET UP TO $2,000 IN FANCASH
BET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS
BET $5 & GET $150 IF YOUR BET WINS
USE CODE SBD20X & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!
USE CODE DIME TO UNLOCK BET $10, GET $100 BONUS
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 1/11/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/4/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
