NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• NFL Week 16 will go a long way to deciding the 14-team NFL playoff bracket
• Two marquee matchups take place on Saturday, Dec. 21 (Texans vs Chiefs and Steelers vs Ravens)
• Below, see my three favorite NFL Week 16 ATS picks to target

Just three weeks remain in the 2024 NFL regular season and, in the AFC in particular, the playoff field could be set as soon as this Sunday. NFL Week 16 starts with a huge matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers on TNF, which is followed by a pair of heavyweight tilts on Saturday before New Orleans vs Green Bay wraps up the action on Monday Night Football. The table below lists my three favorite ATS picks to target early on in the Week 16 NFL odds.

Early NFL Week 16 ATS Picks

My trio of Week 16 picks all involve moving the line to give my team a little more wiggle room. It starts with betting the Ravens vs Steelers up from Pittsburgh +6.5 to +7.5 in a game that could decide the AFC North crown. Odds as of Dec. 17. See SBD’s full list of new betting sites ahead of NFL Week 16. 

NFL Week 16 ATS Pick #1: Steelers (+7.5) at Ravens

The Steelers have dominated this rivalry of late, going 8-1 against Baltimore since the start of the decade. That includes an 18-16 win at home in Week 11, a game in which Pittsburgh trailed for less than a minute.

Betting on either of these teams to win by a big margin just hasn’t been profitable in recent history. The last nine meetings have all been decided by seven points or fewer, and five of the last seven were decided by no more than a field goal.

Both of these teams are top-eight favorites in the 2025 Super Bowl odds and expecting anything other than another close, hard-fought division rivalry goes against every trend.

NFL Week 16 ATS Pick #2: Bengals (-6.5) vs Browns

In the Browns vs Bengals matchup, I am moving the line down from Cincinnati -7 to -6.5. Betting on the Bengals to cover a big spread is a terrifying proposition this year based on the way their defense is allowing points (27.6 PPG, second-last in the NFL). That trend continued in Week 15 as the unit allowed 27 points to the anemic Tennessee attack. But Joe Burrow and the offense put up 37 points of their own to win and cover.

Cleveland’s defense is looking more and more vulnerable as the season goes on. It’s allowed at least 24 points in five of the last seven games and averaged 27.7 PPG in that span.

The Browns’ offense, meanwhile, has scored just 21 points combined in its last two games, and now RB1 Nick Chubb is out with a broken foot, taking away one of the better weapons from a subpar attack.

If Cincinnati had a realistic shot at the postseason and Josh Allen wasn’t putting up record-setting numbers, Joe Burrow would absolutely be in the conversation in the NFL MVP odds. His Bengals should distance their AFC North rival as this game goes on.

NFL Week 16 ATS Pick #3: Seahawks (+3.5) vs Vikings

This line is Minnesota -3.0 at most sportsbooks, but BetMGM has it listed at 3.5 with a little extra juice (-122) on Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off an ugly 30-13 home loss to the Packers, which dropped them into second in the NFC West (both the Seahawks and Rams are 8-6 but LA owns the tiebreaker). Seattle’s defense was absolutely shredded on the ground early by Josh Jacobs and Geno Smith threw two more backbreaking interceptions (one in the Green Bay end zone).

The Vikings, on the other hand, dominated the reeling Bears on MNF (30-12) for their seventh straight win.

But there is a little too much recency bias baked into this line for my liking. Seattle had won four in a row before the loss to Green Bay. If/when Geno Smith – who only threw nine picks last year and has already tossed 13 this season – stops killing his team with red zone turnovers, Seattle is going to keep it close regardless of opponent.