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  • Get the latest 2021 NFL MVP odds
  • Tom Brady is currently the favorite to win NFL MVP 
  • Track the movement over the course of the season for all contenders

Since 1957, the Associated Press has been presenting a Most Valuable Player award to the NFL’s most deserving candidate – also read as the best quarterback in the league. Here are the odds available at our most trusted betting sites; the graphs below show each player’s average odds to win NFL MVP.



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Odds to Win 2021 NFL MVP

Player Odds to Win NFL MVP
Tom Brady (TB) +350
Josh Allen (BUF) +450
Aaron Rodgers (GB) +1000
Kyler Murray (ARI) +1000
Patrick Mahomes (KC) +1000
Dak Prescott (DAL) +1200
Matthew Stafford (LAR) +1600
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +1600
Justin Herbert (LAC) +1800
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +1800
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +3500
Derek Carr (LV) +4000
Joe Burrow (CIN) +4000
Kirk Cousins (MIN) +5000
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +10000
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +10000
James Conner (ARI) +10000
Austin Ekeler (LAC) +10000
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +10000
Mac Jones (NE) +10000
Joe Mixon (CIN) +20000
Deebo Samuel (SF) +20000
Carson Wentz (IND) +20000
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +25000
Tyreek Hill (KC) +25000

*Odds updated November 29

Looking for the latest NFL odds? – Get current spreads, totals, and moneyline odds for all upcoming games this week here.

Here are some notes on the NFL MVP odds movement:

  • [November 29] Aaron Rodgers saw his NFL MVP odds improve from +1000 to +600 after taking down the LA Rams in Week 12. As a result, Matthew Stafford saw his odds to win NFL MVP fade from +1000 to +1600.
  • [November 22] After another game where he threw two interceptions, this time against the Colts, Josh Allen is no longer the favorite to win NFL MVP. Tom Brady now has the best NFL MVP odds after picking apart the Giants for 307 yards and two touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor’s five-touchdown performance against the Bills saw his odds improve from +10000 to +2000, putting him among the top ten contenders.
  • [November 15] Patrick Mahomes finally looked like himself against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football, passing for 406 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-14 rout. His MVP odds improved from +6500 to +1800. But favorite Josh Allen also put up big numbers against the Jets (366 yards, two touchdowns), shortening his odds from +350 to +250.
  • [November 8] Week 9 was not kind to NFL MVP favorites. Josh Allen, who was the lone favorite entering the week, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott all struggled mightily, with the first two throwing multiple interceptions. Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray did not play due to COVID-19 and injury, respectively. Lamar Jackson played a good game, seeing him move back into the top five contenders. Tom Brady’s NFL MVP odds also benefitted thanks to his Bucs being on bye. Brady is now listed as the co-favorite alongside Josh Allen.
  • [November 1] Josh Allen is breaking away from the pack in NFL MVP odds. The Bills QB now has odds as short as +200 at some sportsbooks. Both Dak Prescott, thanks to sitting out Week 8 with an injury, and Kyler Murray, who lost to the Packers, saw their NFL MVP odds worsen. Derrick Henry is also potentially out of the running for NFL MVP as he awaits confirmation on the severity of his foot injury.
  • [October 25] While on bye, Josh Allen became the favorite to win NFL MVP again. It’s not that Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford played poorly, but they didn’t have the huge performances many expected considering their Week 7 opponents. Injury concerns around Dak Prescott would be to blame for his odds fading slightly. Surprisingly, we haven’t seen Tom Brady’s NFL MVP odds improve much, in spite of him leading the league in both passing yards and touchdowns. Joe Burrow and Derek Carr saw their odds imopove significantly after eye-catching performances in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes is no longer among the top ten contenders after an awful outing against the Titans.
  • [October 19] Josh Allen is no longer the favorite to win the NFL MVP after his Bills were upset by the Titans in Week 6. Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are now tied for the best odds to win NFL MVP. Derrick Henry is now among the top ten contenders after rushing for 143 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6. The Titans running back now has 725 rushing yards in his last five games.
  • [October 11] Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds have faded all the way to +2000 as the Chiefs lost their third game of the season in Week 5. Mahomes is not even among the top five contenders anymore. Josh Allen has taken over as the favorite after Kyler Murray had a bit of a quiet week.
  • [October 4] Kyler Murray has broken away from the pack after Week 4, where he led his Cardinals to an upset win over the Rams. On the other side, Matthew Stafford saw his NFL MVP odds fade after the bad loss. Dak Prescott continues to see his odds improve, making a large jump after throwing four touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 4.
  • [September 27] For the first time this year, Patrick Mahomes is not the favorite to win NFL MVP. Depending where you look, any of Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, or Matthew Stafford have better odds to win NFL MVP after Mahomes’ Chiefs dropped their second straight game of the season.
  • [September 20] Some sportsbooks are listing Kyler Murray the co-favorite in their NFL MVP odds after he threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns, adding one more on the ground, in a win over the Vikings in Week 2. Derek Carr is also seeing significant movement in his NFL MVP odds, as he’s now a top ten contender after he has the Raiders off to a 2-0 start with wins over the Ravens and Steelers to start the season.
  • [September 14] After Week 1, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray saw their NFL MVP odds improve significantly, both jumping into the top five contenders, pushing Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen out. Jalen Hurts and Jameis Winston also saw their NFL MVP odds improve after strong Week 1 performances. All of Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Ryan Tannehill plummeted down the board after rough games to open the 2021 NFL season.
  • [September 9] Ahead of the 2021 NFL season kickoff, Russell Wilson’s NFL MVP odds have shortened from an average of +1733 to +1550, putting him among the top five contenders. Dak Prescott’s odds have taken a small hit prior to Dallas’ trip to Tampa Bay to take on the defending champs.
  • [August 23] Despite concerns over Dak Prescott not being fully healthy, the Cowboys QB has seen his NFL MVP odds remain a little longer than 15-1. Carson Wentz’ odds haven’t seen any major movement, either. The Colts QB is back on the practice field and looking like he might not miss any time due to his foot surgery.
  • [June 14] Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds continue to shorten, now reaching an average of +488. Aaron Rodgers’ odds, on the other hand, have started to fade as the possibility of the reigning MVP sitting out for the season becomes more and more real. Deshaun Watson’s odds also continue to freefall with his future completely up in the air. Ryan Tannehill’s NFL MVP odds have shortened from an average of +3275 to +2800 after the Titans acquired Julio Jones, giving Tannehill two very good options on the outside with Jones and AJ Brown.
  • [May 3] No player saw their NFL MVP odds improve more thanks to the NFL Draft than Matt Ryan. Not only did the Falcons pass on taking Ryan’s eventual successor with the fourth-overall pick, but they provided their quarterback with arguably the best pass-catcher in the draft in Kyle Pitts. Ryan’s NFL MVP odds opened at +10000, were still +8000 prior to the draft, and have now improved to +4150, putting him among the top 20 contenders.
  • [March 30] For very different reasons, all of Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson have seen their 2021 NFL MVP odds worsen. Herbert’s odds went from +1800 to +2500, a much more reasonable price for the second-year QB. Wilson’s odds moved from +1300 to +2000 as concerns grow over how much Russ will be allowed to cook this season. Watson went from +1700 to +2500 as the current Texans signal-caller faces some very serious sexual assault allegations.
  • [February 18] Carson Wentz’ NFL MVP odds have improved from +4000 to +3000 after being traded to Indianapolis, reuniting him with his old offensive coordinator Frank Reich. With Jalen Hurts locked in as the starter in Philadelphia now, his NFL MVP odds have improved from +12500 to +8000.
  • [February 9] Patrick Mahomes has opened as the favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP. Matthew Stafford has opened as a top five contender after being traded to the Los Angeles Rams, and Justin Herbert opened as a top ten contender after his promising rookie season.

Opening 2020 Odds vs 2019 Odds

NFL MVP Betting Trends

  • A quarterback has won each of the last eight NFL MVP awards
  • Since 2001, only three non-QBs have won the award – all were running backs
  • Since 2001, only one player has won NFL MVP without their respective team winning at least 11 games – Adrian Peterson’s Vikings won 10 games in 2012

Top Contenders by Position

Of the 64 NFL MVP awards handed out, 43.5 have gone to quarterbacks – Brett Favre and Barry Sanders shared the honors in 1997. Looking to the remaining 20.5, 17.5 of them were running backs, two were defensive players, and one was a placekicker.

  • Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) were the two defensive players to win the award
  • Mark Moseley (1982) was the lone kicker to win an MVP, after he nailed an NFL-high 20 field goal attempts – he attempted 21 – for Washington
  • Jim Brown won the first two MVP awards in 1957 and 1958
  • The most recent RB to be named MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012
  • The NFL MVP has gone to a QB in his second season in the league two of the last three years

Odds For Previous Winners

The six players in this graph have accounted for each of the last seven MVP awards. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers lead all active players with three MVPs, but still have some work to do in order to catch Peyton Manning, who holds the all-time record with five.

Last 10 NFL MVP Winners

Year NFL MVP Pos Team Record
2020 Aaron Rodgers (3) QB Packers 13-3
2019 Lamar Jackson QB Ravens 14-2
2018 Patrick Mahomes QB Chiefs 12-4
2017 Tom Brady (3) QB Patriots 13-3
2016 Matt Ryan QB Falcons 11-5
2015 Cam Newton QB Panthers 15-1
2014 Aaron Rodgers (2) QB Packers 12-4
2013 Peyton Manning (5) QB Broncos 13-3
2012 Adrian Peterson RB Vikings 10-6
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB Packers 15-1

Teams with Most NFL MVP Winners

NFL Team Number of MVP Winners Most Recent MVP Winner
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 Peyton Manning (2009)
Green Bay Packers 8.5 Aaron Rodgers (2020)
San Francisco 49ers 5 Steve Young (1994)
Cleveland Browns 4 Brian Sipe (1980)
Los Angeles Rams 4 Kurt Warner (2001)

The Colts had five MVP winners during their time in Baltimore – Johnny Unitas accounted for three – but Peyton Manning provided four more when they moved to Indianapolis.

You may be a little surprised to see Cleveland on here, but keep in mind the NFL MVP has been awarded since 1957. Jim Brown won the first two and added a third in 1965.

Thanks to the Greatest Show on Turf, the Rams are the only team to win the award in three consecutive seasons – Brett Favre won it for the Packers in three straight, but he shared the award in 1997 with Barry Sanders.

Teams with No NFL MVP Winners

Teams with no MVP Winners Notable Players with “MVP-Type” Seasons
Arizona Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald/Carson Palmer/Kurt Warner/Jake Plummer
Houston Texans Arian Foster/Andre Johnson/JJ Watt
Jacksonville Jaguars Mark Brunell/Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew
New Orleans Saints Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara
New York Jets Curtis Martin/Joe Namath
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brad Johnson?

Patrick Mahomes was the first Kansas City Chief to ever win the NFL MVP award in 2018, and Lamar Jackson became the first ever Raven to win it in 2019.

The city of Baltimore did get to see five MVPs when they had the Colts, though.

Archived MVP Odds: 2020, 2019, 2018

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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.