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  • Get the latest 2021 NFL MVP odds
  • Patrick Mahomes is the clear favorite to win 2021 NFL MVP
  • Track the movement over the course of the season for all contenders

Since 1957, the Associated Press has been presenting a Most Valuable Player award to the NFL’s most deserving candidate – also read as the best quarterback in the league. Here are the odds available at our most trusted betting sites; the graphs below show each player’s average odds to win NFL MVP.

Odds For Top NFL MVP Contenders

NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds to Win NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes (KC) +550
Matthew Stafford (LAR) +800
Kyler Murray (ARI) +1000
Russell Wilson (SEA) +1000
Tom Brady (TB) +1000
Dak Prescott (DAL) +1400
Josh Allen (BUF) +1400
Aaron Rodgers (GB) +1600
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +1600
Justin Herbert (LAC) +2000
Jameis Winston (NO) +2500
Baker Mayfield (CLE) +3500
Kirk Cousins (MIN) +3500
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +3500
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +3500
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) +4000
Joe Burrow (CIN) +4000
Deshaun Watson (HOU) +5000
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +6500
Derrick Henry (TEN) +6500
Derek Carr (LV) +6500
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +6500
Sam Darnold (CAR) +6500
Alvin Kamara (NO) +8000
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +8000
Carson Wentz (PHI) +10000
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +10000
Mac Jones (NE) +10000
Matt Ryan (ATL) +10000
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +10000

*Odds updated September 14

Looking for the latest NFL odds? – Get current spreads, totals, and moneyline odds for all upcoming games this week here.

Here are some notes on the NFL MVP odds movement:

  • [September 14] After Week 1, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray saw their NFL MVP odds improve significantly, both jumping into the top five contenders, pushing Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen out. Jalen Hurts and Jameis Winston also saw their NFL MVP odds improve after strong Week 1 performances. All of Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Ryan Tannehill plummeted down the board after rough games to open the 2021 NFL season.
  • [September 9] Ahead of the 2021 NFL season kickoff, Russell Wilson’s NFL MVP odds have shortened from an average of +1733 to +1550, putting him among the top five contenders. Dak Prescott’s odds have taken a small hit prior to Dallas’ trip to Tampa Bay to take on the defending champs.
  • [August 23] Despite concerns over Dak Prescott not being fully healthy, the Cowboys QB has seen his NFL MVP odds remain a little longer than 15-1. Carson Wentz’ odds haven’t seen any major movement, either. The Colts QB is back on the practice field and looking like he might not miss any time due to his foot surgery.
  • [June 14] Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds continue to shorten, now reaching an average of +488. Aaron Rodgers’ odds, on the other hand, have started to fade as the possibility of the reigning MVP sitting out for the season becomes more and more real. Deshaun Watson’s odds also continue to freefall with his future completely up in the air. Ryan Tannehill’s NFL MVP odds have shortened from an average of +3275 to +2800 after the Titans acquired Julio Jones, giving Tannehill two very good options on the outside with Jones and AJ Brown.
  • [May 3] No player saw their NFL MVP odds improve more thanks to the NFL Draft than Matt Ryan. Not only did the Falcons pass on taking Ryan’s eventual successor with the fourth-overall pick, but they provided their quarterback with arguably the best pass-catcher in the draft in Kyle Pitts. Ryan’s NFL MVP odds opened at +10000, were still +8000 prior to the draft, and have now improved to +4150, putting him among the top 20 contenders.
  • [March 30] For very different reasons, all of Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson have seen their 2021 NFL MVP odds worsen. Herbert’s odds went from +1800 to +2500, a much more reasonable price for the second-year QB. Wilson’s odds moved from +1300 to +2000 as concerns grow over how much Russ will be allowed to cook this season. Watson went from +1700 to +2500 as the current Texans signal-caller faces some very serious sexual assault allegations.
  • [February 18] Carson Wentz’ NFL MVP odds have improved from +4000 to +3000 after being traded to Indianapolis, reuniting him with his old offensive coordinator Frank Reich. With Jalen Hurts locked in as the starter in Philadelphia now, his NFL MVP odds have improved from +12500 to +8000.
  • [February 9] Patrick Mahomes has opened as the favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP. Matthew Stafford has opened as a top five contender after being traded to the Los Angeles Rams, and Justin Herbert opened as a top ten contender after his promising rookie season.

Opening 2020 Odds vs 2019 Odds

NFL MVP Betting Trends

  • A quarterback has won each of the last eight NFL MVP awards
  • Since 2001, only three non-QBs have won the award – all were running backs
  • Since 2001, only one player has won NFL MVP without their respective team winning at least 11 games – Adrian Peterson’s Vikings won 10 games in 2012

Top Contenders by Position

Of the 64 NFL MVP awards handed out, 43.5 have gone to quarterbacks – Brett Favre and Barry Sanders shared the honors in 1997. Looking to the remaining 20.5, 17.5 of them were running backs, two were defensive players, and one was a placekicker.

  • Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) were the two defensive players to win the award
  • Mark Moseley (1982) was the lone kicker to win an MVP, after he nailed an NFL-high 20 field goal attempts – he attempted 21 – for Washington
  • Jim Brown won the first two MVP awards in 1957 and 1958
  • The most recent RB to be named MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012
  • The NFL MVP has gone to a QB in his second season in the league two of the last three years

Odds For Previous Winners

The six players in this graph have accounted for each of the last seven MVP awards. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers lead all active players with three MVPs, but still have some work to do in order to catch Peyton Manning, who holds the all-time record with five.

Last 10 NFL MVP Winners

Year NFL MVP Pos Team Record
2020 Aaron Rodgers (3) QB Packers 13-3
2019 Lamar Jackson QB Ravens 14-2
2018 Patrick Mahomes QB Chiefs 12-4
2017 Tom Brady (3) QB Patriots 13-3
2016 Matt Ryan QB Falcons 11-5
2015 Cam Newton QB Panthers 15-1
2014 Aaron Rodgers (2) QB Packers 12-4
2013 Peyton Manning (5) QB Broncos 13-3
2012 Adrian Peterson RB Vikings 10-6
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB Packers 15-1

Teams with Most NFL MVP Winners

NFL Team Number of MVP Winners Most Recent MVP Winner
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 Peyton Manning (2009)
Green Bay Packers 8.5 Aaron Rodgers (2020)
San Francisco 49ers 5 Steve Young (1994)
Cleveland Browns 4 Brian Sipe (1980)
Los Angeles Rams 4 Kurt Warner (2001)

The Colts had five MVP winners during their time in Baltimore – Johnny Unitas accounted for three – but Peyton Manning provided four more when they moved to Indianapolis.

You may be a little surprised to see Cleveland on here, but keep in mind the NFL MVP has been awarded since 1957. Jim Brown won the first two and added a third in 1965.

Thanks to the Greatest Show on Turf, the Rams are the only team to win the award in three consecutive seasons – Brett Favre won it for the Packers in three straight, but he shared the award in 1997 with Barry Sanders.

Teams with No NFL MVP Winners

Teams with no MVP Winners Notable Players with “MVP-Type” Seasons
Arizona Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald/Carson Palmer/Kurt Warner/Jake Plummer
Houston Texans Arian Foster/Andre Johnson/JJ Watt
Jacksonville Jaguars Mark Brunell/Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew
New Orleans Saints Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara
New York Jets Curtis Martin/Joe Namath
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brad Johnson?

Patrick Mahomes was the first Kansas City Chief to ever win the NFL MVP award in 2018, and Lamar Jackson became the first ever Raven to win it in 2019.

The city of Baltimore did get to see five MVPs when they had the Colts, though.


Archived MVP Odds: 2020, 2019, 2018

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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.