By Brady Trettenero in NFL News
Published:
We’re red-hot with NFL predictions, going 3-0 in Week 15 to keep the winning streak alive. The Eagles demolished the Raiders 31-0, crushing our Under 38.5 pick. Meanwhile, the Commanders beat the Giants as road dogs, and the Broncos upset the Packers behind Bo Nix’s four touchdown passes.
The model and I are pretty aligned this week, which is always great to see. There have already been some fantastic Week 16 NFL games, including the Bears beating the Packers in overtime and the Seahawks winning the game of the year over the Rams. The model had LA winning that one by a point.
I have analyzed the 12 remaining games on the Week 16 slate and provided my picks for each, as well as my computer’s score projections. I have surfaced up my best bets, upset predictions, and also dropped in some info on injuries and weather that are needed before betting Week 16 of the NFL season.
The computer is projecting two games decided by two points or less: Buccaneers-Panthers (20-19), Jaguars-Broncos (20-18). The largest projected blowout is Houston winning 24-2 over Las Vegas.
As usual, these are straight-up (moneyline) NFL picks. If you want spread picks, use my computer’s score projections to identify value in the NFL odds. I’ve bolded the games where I disagree with the model.
The model is predicting four upsets this week: Chargers over Cowboys, Dolphins over Bengals, Patriots over Ravens, and Colts over 49ers. I’m only riding with one of those four.
Here is a quick summary of the games my computer and I disagree on:
The computer model’s projection of the Dolphins’ upset is surprising. Miami is starting Quinn Ewers for the benched Tua Tagovailoa. That’s a tough spot for a rookie making his first NFL start, even against Cincinnati’s league-worst defense.
The model projects the Patriots to upset the Ravens 27-16. I came close to picking this one, but I couldn’t get past the quarterback edge. Lamar Jackson is too good, and Baltimore needs this game more after dropping two of their past three.
The model has the Colts upsetting the 49ers 25-22 on Monday night. Philip Rivers is a great story, but it’s hard to see him leading Indianapolis to victory against a San Francisco team that continues finding ways to win.
In my opinion, the best bets to make for Week 16 in the NFL are:
I will break down why I like all three of these bets in my NFL predictions below.
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites in Charlotte, but I’m taking the moneyline in a division game this tight. Tampa Bay is 9-1 against Carolina since 2020. That’s complete dominance.
The Bucs have won four straight NFC South titles, and they’re not ready to hand the crown over to Bryce Young. Baker Mayfield is 4-0 against the Panthers as a Buccaneer with eight touchdowns against three interceptions and a 100.9 passer rating in those four games.
Mayfield has more touchdown passes against the NFC South since 2023 than any quarterback against any division. He’s thrown 33 touchdowns in division games over that span. He plays with a different level of intensity against his old team.
Tampa Bay has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both healthy for the first time in weeks. The Bucs injury report is completely clean with nobody even listed as questionable. Evans already owns Carolina with 118 career receptions against them, just one behind Roddy White’s all-time record of 119.
Carolina’s defense has improved this season, allowing 8.8 fewer points per game than last year. That’s the biggest drop in the NFL. But they’re 2-9 in December games since 2023.
The Panthers lost 20-17 to the 4-10 Saints last week at home. Losing to a struggling New Orleans team in a game you need for playoff positioning is a red flag. Tampa Bay lost 29-28 to Atlanta, but they put up 28 points against a competitive team and were in it until the final whistle.
The model projects this game at 20-19, which is the closest projection of the week. I think the Bucs win by a field goal or more. Take the moneyline.
My top upset prediction for Week 16 is:
The Cowboys opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line has moved to Dallas -2.5 at some books. I think that line is pricing the Cowboys on reputation instead of current reality.
The Chargers are 10-4 and have won six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are 6-7-1 with nothing left to play for. Philadelphia clinched the NFC East on Saturday night, officially eliminating Dallas from playoff contention before kickoff Sunday.
One team is fighting for playoff seeding. The other is playing out the string. The defensive matchup is night and day.
The Chargers rank second in total defense and third in pass defense. Dallas ranks dead last in pass defense, surrendering 254.8 yards through the air per game. The Cowboys are giving up 30 points per contest, 31st in the NFL.
Over their last three games, Dallas has allowed 112 points. That’s 37.3 per game. Their body language in the last two weeks against Detroit and Minnesota looked like a team that’s checked out. They lost 44-30 to Detroit and 34-26 to Minnesota.
Jim Harbaugh’s defense has been the exact opposite. Since their Week 12 bye, the Chargers have held opponents to 15.3 points per game during a three-game win streak. They picked off Jalen Hurts four times and held Patrick Mahomes to 189 yards with five sacks.
The Chargers’ pass rush has been relentless. When Tuli Tuipulotu, Khalil Mack, and Odafe Oweh are on the field together, LA pressures quarterbacks 55% of the time. Dak Prescott is going to feel that heat all afternoon.
LA is going to control time of possession and keep Dallas’s offense on the sideline. The Chargers controlled possession for 34 minutes and 42 seconds against Kansas City. They’re averaging the second-longest drive time in the NFL this season.
The Chargers have rushed 110 times over their last three games compared to Justin Herbert’s 75 pass attempts. They’re grinding teams down. Dallas gives up 120.1 rushing yards per game and ranks 29th in rushing EPA allowed.
Omarion Hampton has racked up 117 yards on 28 carries over his last two games. Kimani Vidal has increased his rushing average by 40.9 yards per game from 2024 to 2025, the second-biggest jump in the league.
I think the Chargers run it down their throats, control the clock, and win this game outright. The model projects LA 28, Dallas 23. Take the plus-money.
I can’t pick against Denver at home in Mile High. They’re 7-0 at home this season and haven’t lost a home game in 14 months. Playing at elevation wears teams down, especially in December when everyone’s banged up.
But I’m taking the points with Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 3.5-point underdogs, and the model projects this game at 20-18. That means Jacksonville is getting free money with the hook.
The Jaguars have won five straight games and covered the spread in all five. They’re 9-5 against the spread this season with a +22.73% ROI. Denver is 12-2 straight up, which looks great. But they’re 6-8 against the spread.
When the Broncos are favored by 3.5 points or more, they’re 2-6 ATS. Denver wins games but doesn’t cover numbers.
Trevor Lawrence just dropped six total touchdowns on the Jets last week, including five through the air and one on the ground. That was the first time in Jaguars history a quarterback accounted for six touchdowns in a single game. Lawrence is playing MVP-level football right now.
Jacksonville’s offense has scored 25-plus points in seven straight games. That’s a franchise record. They’ve won five games by 15 or more points this season, which they’ve only exceeded twice in franchise history.
The Jaguars’ run defense ranks first in the NFL, allowing just 86.3 yards per game. If they can stuff Denver’s ground game and force Bo Nix into third-and-long situations, they’ll keep this game within a field goal.
Lawrence leads the NFL in average depth of target at 9.5 yards, tied with Jaxson Dart and Lamar Jackson. He’s pushing the ball downfield and making defenses pay.
I think Denver wins at home, but I expect Jacksonville to cover. The Broncos have played 12 one-score games this season, the most in the NFL. They’re 10-2 in those games, but they rarely blow teams out. Take the points and the hook.
I have set out the key injury concerns for each matchup, below.
Tampa Bay is completely healthy for the first time in weeks. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both ready to go.
Justin Herbert is playing with a broken bone in his left hand but is not listed on the injury report. He’s taken 116 quarterback hits this season, the most in the NFL. He’s been sacked 51 times, which would be a new single-season high for a Chargers quarterback.
The Cowboys will be without cornerback DaRon Bland, which is a major loss against the Chargers’ passing attack. Quinnen Williams is questionable with a concussion.
Both teams are relatively healthy heading into this AFC clash. Denver has already clinched a playoff spot. Jacksonville can clinch with a win and a loss by either Indianapolis or Houston.
Quinn Ewers will make his first NFL start for Miami with Tua benched. Higgins is in concussion protocol for the second time this season.
Undrafted rookie Brady Cook will start for the Jets regardless of whether Taylor or Fields are active. Garrett Wilson has been shut down for the year. Alvin Kamara remains out for New Orleans.
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL last week and is out for the season. Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback. The Chiefs dropped from -7 favorites to -2.5 after Mahomes went down and Rice was ruled out.
T.J. Watt is out after surgery to repair a collapsed lung. That’s a massive loss for Pittsburgh’s pass rush against Detroit’s high-powered offense.
Drake London is expected to return after missing time with a knee injury. Marvin Harrison Jr. is questionable but indicated he’ll probably play through the heel injury the rest of the season.
Kyle Hamilton popped up on the injury report Friday as a limited participant with an ankle injury. Lamar Jackson practiced fully Thursday and Friday after not practicing Wednesday.
Philip Myes will start at quarterback for the Colts. Sauce Gardner and DeForest Buckner are both questionable for Monday night.
Lake effect snow showers and high winds at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. Temperatures from 26 to 33 degrees with 60% chance of precipitation and winds of 20-25 MPH.
Josh Allen’s deep ball won’t be as accurate in these conditions. The total sits at 41.5.
MetLife Stadium will see partly sunny skies but cold and blustery conditions. Temperatures from 29 to 38 degrees with 15-20 MPH winds.
The swirling winds at MetLife create chaos for quarterbacks and kickers. The total is 43.5.
Sunny but cold conditions in Denver with temperatures from 24 to 39 degrees. Winds will be light at 5-10 MPH with just 5% chance of precipitation.
Overcast skies with cold rain possible in Baltimore. Temperatures from 36 to 42 degrees with 40% chance of precipitation and winds of 10-15 MPH.
Wet conditions make ball security and route-running tougher. The total is 49.5.
Mostly cloudy and chilly in Charlotte with temperatures from 35 to 45 degrees. Just 15% chance of precipitation with light winds of 5-10 MPH.
Mostly sunny and cold in Nashville with temperatures from 34 to 44 degrees. Light winds of 5-10 MPH with 10% chance of precipitation.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 6 hours ago
