Week 18 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

• Compare computer and expert predictions for Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season
• Find computer score projections for each game
• Check out the best NFL picks and upset predictions below

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NFL Week 18 is always chaos, and this year is no different. Saturday gave us two games, and Sunday brings 14 more to close out the regular season.

The Seahawks clinched the NFC’s top seed with a 13-3 win over the 49ers in ugly, rainy conditions. Tampa beat Carolina 16-14 to stay alive in the NFC South race. Now it all comes down to Sunday’s Falcons-Saints matchup to decide the division.

Teams are resting starters, backups are getting auditions, and betting value is everywhere if you know where to look. The Eagles are sitting Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and most of their starters. The Packers aren’t playing Jordan Love. The Chargers have Justin Herbert on the bench.

My best bet is the Over 43.5 in the Falcons-Saints game. I’m also backing two outright upsets: Saints ML at +135 and Giants ML at +155. The computer has three projected upsets, but I’m fading all of them.

Week 18 NFL Predictions: Expert & Computer Picks

The computer projects six games decided by three points or less, making Week 18 perfect for live betting and close finishes.

The model loves three outright upsets this Sunday: Browns over Bengals (21-20), Packers over Vikings (19-13), and Lions over Bears (31-28). I’m fading all three. Cleveland’s 4-12 and checked out, Green Bay is starting third-string QB Clayton Tune with everyone resting, and Detroit is banged up with Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill, and Alex Anzalone all out.

My upset picks go in a bit of a different direction. I’m backing Saints ML at +155 and Giants ML at +155, while my best bet also comes in the Atlanta-New Orleans NFC South showdown.

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Best Bet: Saints vs Falcons Over 43

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 4, 2026 at 9:42am

Pick

Odds

Over +43

Over/Under

NFL • New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

-110 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 01/04/2026

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1767519750201-481c-524

The total sits at 43 in most spots, which I believe is too low for how these offenses are playing right now.

Tyler Shough is driving an over-friendly offense. The Saints rookie QB has thrown for 300+ yards in back-to-back games without an interception, tying C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert for the longest such streak by a rookie QB in NFL history. He just posted a 142.7 passer rating against Tennessee, one of the highest rookie marks in the Super Bowl era.

New Orleans hung 34 on the Titans last week in a 60-point game. They did it without Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, both out again this week. But Shough has already proven he can score with backup weapons. In his eight starts, he’s 5-3 with a 67.8% completion rate and 9 total touchdowns.

Tyler Shough is truly unbelievable 🚀

Without a doubt the rookie of the year.pic.twitter.com/Yo5kaxuY0g

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 28, 2025

On the other side, Bijan Robinson has averaged 25.2 touches over his last five games with 5 touchdowns. He accounts for 40.2% of Atlanta’s scrimmage yards this season, the highest percentage in the NFL by a wide margin. The Falcons are going to feed him relentlessly.

The Saints rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game at 93.4, and they just lost both starting interior defensive linemen. Bryan Bresee and Nathan Shepherd are both out, leaving New Orleans extremely thin up front against a run-heavy Falcons attack.

Kirk Cousins has a 67.8% career completion rate against the Saints, the highest of any QB with at least 200 attempts against them. He carved them up for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns in their first meeting this season.

This is a dome game in Atlanta with no weather concerns. The Falcons averaged 50.0 combined points in their last five games. The Saints averaged 42.8. You don’t need a shootout here, just two offenses executing in perfect conditions.

• Best Bet: Over 43 (-110)

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NFL Week 18 Upset Picks

Upset Pick #1: Saints ML +155 @ Falcons

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 4, 2026 at 9:34am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

155 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 01/04/2026

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1767519296967-481c-989

The Saints are absolutely live in this spot.

Atlanta is 7-9 and favored by 3.5 at home, but New Orleans is the team playing better football. The Saints started 2-10 and looked dead. Then everything changed.

New Orleans went 4-0 in December, their first four-game win streak since the Drew Brees era in 2020. They’re scoring 26.8 points per game this month while allowing just 17.3. That’s a massive 9.5-point swing from their first 12 games.

The Saints have also covered five straight spreads and four straight on the road. When a team is that hot against the number, you don’t fade them for three and a half points.

SAINTS UPSET THE PANTHERS OFF A GAME-WINNING FG 😳

Saints playing spoiler to the Bucs and Panthers in back-to-back weeks

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/rbvx9ve3vu

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 15, 2025

ESPN’s FPI gives Atlanta only a 54.6% win probability and projects them by just 1.6 points. The spread implies closer to 60-65% win odds. That’s your value gap right there.

Atlanta is 0-3 ATS this season when favored by 3.5 or more. They’ve played 44 one-score games since 2022 and gone 19-25 in them, the worst record in the NFL. When games get tight, the Falcons find ways to lose.

The Saints’ defense has been elite in crunch time. They haven’t allowed a fourth-quarter touchdown since Week 12 against the Falcons, the longest active streak in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 4 fourth-quarter touchdowns all season, the fewest in the league.

New Orleans has also forced at least one takeaway in seven straight games, tied for the third-longest active streak. They create turnovers and shut teams down late. That’s how underdogs win on the road.

• Upset Pick: Saints ML +155

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Upset Pick #2: Giants ML +155 vs Cowboys

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 4, 2026 at 9:35am

Pick

Odds

HomeTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

155 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 01/04/2026

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1767519327765-481c-695

The Giants are a live dog at home.

Dallas has beaten New York nine straight times, but this Cowboys team is collapsing. They’re 7-8-1 and have allowed 32.6 points per game over their last five. The defense ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass, allowing 253.6 passing yards per game and 33 passing touchdowns, both worst in the league.

Dak Prescott hinted he won’t play the entire game. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer openly admitted he’s considering giving backup Joe Milton snaps. Javonte Williams is already ruled out with a shoulder injury, and the Cowboys’ running back room is down to rookie Jaydon Blue and possibly Phil Mafah.

Blue has just 65 rushing yards on 22 carries this season and hasn’t played since a costly fumble in Week 8. Dallas is riding backup running backs behind an offensive line that allowed a season-high 6 sacks last week against Washington.

The Giants, meanwhile, are all-in. Interim coach Mike Kafka said he’s playing starters “all the way through” with no regard for draft positioning. This is a young team fighting for jobs and trying to send the home crowd into the offseason with something positive.

Mike Kafka says he plans to play all the Giants "all the way through." Normal game plan and playing time in Week 18 vs. Cowboys. pic.twitter.com/ACswj4IN6A

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 31, 2025

Jaxson Dart has been one of the few bright spots in a brutal Giants season. The rookie QB has 2,497 yards from scrimmage with 22 total touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He’s rushed for 9 touchdowns this season, leading all NFL rookies and setting a franchise record for Giants quarterbacks.

Since taking over in Week 4, Dart ranks as the QB2 in fantasy points per game at 22.5, averaging 200.2 passing yards and 44.4 rushing yards per game with 13 passing TDs and 7 rushing scores. He just torched the Raiders for 207 passing yards plus 48 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in a 34-10 win.

The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing offense and have run for 146, 128, and 155 yards in their last three games. Dallas allows 4.7 yards per carry and 23 rushing touchdowns, both bottom-tier marks. You’ve got a surging rushing attack against a soft run defense.

New York’s pass rush has come alive late in the year. Brian Burns has 16.5 sacks, second in the league behind Myles Garrett. Rookies Darius Alexander and Abdul Carter have combined for 6.5 sacks in their last five games. They’re going after a Dallas offensive line that’s banged up and missing left tackle Tyler Guyton.

ESPN’s FPI actually has the Giants as slight favorites, giving them a 51.7% win probability. If you’re getting +155 on a team that advanced metrics see as a coin flip or better, that’s pure value.

• Upset Pick: Giants ML +155

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Week 18 NFL Injury Report

Here are the key injury concerns heading into Week 18. Make sure to check out a full list of Teams Resting Starters in Week 18.

Saints @ Falcons

• New Orleans: RB Alvin Kamara (knee) OUT. WR Chris Olave (back) OUT. DL Bryan Bresee (ankle) OUT. DL Nathan Shepherd (calf) OUT.
• Atlanta: WR Drake London (knee) QUESTIONABLE – expected to play. WR Darnell Mooney (knee) QUESTIONABLE – expected to play. TE Kyle Pitts (knee) QUESTIONABLE – expected to play. DL Brandon Dorlus (hamstring) OUT. CB Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness) OUT.

Kamara and Olave are both out for the fifth straight week, but the Saints scored 34 without them last week. The bigger concern is New Orleans’ defensive line being thin against Bijan Robinson. Both Bresee and Shepherd are out, weakening the interior against Atlanta’s run-heavy attack.

Coach Raheem Morris expects London, Mooney, and Pitts to all play despite being listed as questionable.

Cowboys @ Giants

• Dallas: RB Javonte Williams (shoulder/neck) OUT. RB Malik Davis OUT. TE Jake Ferguson (calf) good to go.
• New York: WR Wan’Dale Robinson (rib) OUT. TE Theo Johnson (illness) OUT. DT Dexter Lawrence (illness) QUESTIONABLE. S Jevon Holland OUT. CB Cor’Dale Flott (knee) OUT.

Williams and Davis are both out, leaving Dallas with rookie Jaydon Blue and possibly Phil Mafah to carry the load. Blue hasn’t played since Week 8 after a costly fumble and has just 65 rushing yards all season on 22 carries.

The Giants lose Wan’Dale Robinson (1,014 receiving yards this season) and Theo Johnson, but against the NFL’s worst pass defense, they should still be able to move the ball. Dexter Lawrence didn’t practice Thursday or Friday due to illness.

Packers @ Vikings

• Green Bay: QB Jordan Love (concussion) OUT. QB Malik Willis (shoulder/hamstring) QUESTIONABLE. WR Dontayvion Wicks (concussion) DOUBTFUL. RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle) cleared. WR Jayden Reed (illness) cleared.
• Minnesota: RB Aaron Jones (hip) OUT. TE T.J. Hockenson (shoulder) OUT.

Jordan Love cleared concussion protocol but won’t play. Third-string QB Clayton Tune gets the start for Green Bay. The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed and resting their starters. Minnesota loses Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson but is rolling out the rest of their starters.

Colts @ Texans

• Indianapolis: QB Anthony Richardson (eye) OUT. QB Philip Rivers retired. CB Sauce Gardner (calf) no injury designation – good to go.
• Houston: CB Kamari Lassiter (ankle/knee) likely out. RT Trent Brown (ankle/knee) QUESTIONABLE.

Philip Rivers’ three-game comeback is over. The 44-year-old confirmed he’s retiring again and returning to coaching high school football. Rookie Riley Leonard starts for Indianapolis in the finale. Sauce Gardner is back after missing three games, a huge boost for the Colts secondary.

Eagles @ Commanders

• Philadelphia: QB Jalen Hurts OUT (rest). RB Saquon Barkley OUT (rest). WR A.J. Brown OUT (rest). WR DeVonta Smith OUT (rest). TE Dallas Goedert (knee) OUT. DT Jalen Carter (hip) OUT. LB Nakobe Dean (hamstring) OUT. OT Lane Johnson (foot) OUT.
• Washington: QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) OUT. QB Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) OUT. Third-string QB Josh Johnson starting. OT Laremy Tunsil (oblique) OUT.

The Eagles are resting everyone. Tanner McKee starts at quarterback. Washington is down to third-string QB Josh Johnson with both Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota out. This is a JV game.

Bills @ Jets

• Buffalo: QB Josh Allen (foot) good to go but likely playing one series. TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) QUESTIONABLE. DE Joey Bosa (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE. DT DaQuan Jones (calf) OUT. LB Terrel Bernard (calf) OUT. S Jordan Poyer (hamstring) OUT.
• New York: RB Breece Hall (knee) OUT. RB Isaiah Davis (concussion) OUT. TE Mason Taylor (neck) OUT. DL Micheal Clemons (ankle) OUT.

Josh Allen will start to keep his NFL-leading consecutive starts streak alive, but isn’t expected to play more than one drive. Breece Hall is out for the Jets. Undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook gets another audition.

Chargers @ Broncos

• Los Angeles: QB Justin Herbert OUT (rest). RB Omarion Hampton OUT (ankle). LT Jamaree Salyer (hamstring) DOUBTFUL. C Bradley Bozeman (concussion) QUESTIONABLE. Trey Lance starting at QB. Several key starters resting.
• Denver: LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) OUT. LB Karene Reid (hamstring) OUT.

Justin Herbert and several key Chargers starters are resting. Trey Lance gets the start behind a banged-up offensive line. Denver has everything to play for, chasing the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win.

Ravens @ Steelers

• Baltimore: QB Lamar Jackson (back) good to go. WR Rashod Bateman (illness) OUT. DT Taven Bryan (knee) OUT. CB Marlon Humphrey (illness) QUESTIONABLE.
• Pittsburgh: LB T.J. Watt (lung) LIMITED – expected to play. G Isaac Seumalo (triceps) OUT.

Lamar Jackson practiced fully all week and is ready for Sunday night. T.J. Watt is listed as limited but expected to suit up. Both teams have playoff seeding on the line.

Rams @ Cardinals

• Los Angeles: WR Davante Adams (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE. RB Kyren Williams (ankle) QUESTIONABLE. RB Blake Corum (ankle) QUESTIONABLE. TE Terrance Ferguson (hamstring) DOUBTFUL.
• Arizona: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) OUT – placed on IR, season over. OL Evan Brown OUT (personal). LB Josh Sweat (ankle/knee) QUESTIONABLE.

Davante Adams missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Sunday. Marvin Harrison Jr. was placed on IR, ending his rookie season. Both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are questionable for the Rams.

Raiders @ Chiefs

• Las Vegas: QB Geno Smith (ankle) OUT. DE Maxx Crosby (knee) OUT – placed on IR for the season. TE Brock Bowers OUT – placed on IR for the season.
• Kansas City: G Trey Smith (ankle) OUT. WR Xavier Worthy (illness) DOUBTFUL. RB Isiah Pacheco (NIR-rest) QUESTIONABLE.

The Raiders shut down Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers for the season, placing both on IR. Crosby told reporters he doesn’t care about the No. 1 pick – the decision to sit him caused tension between him and the team. Kenny Pickett will start at QB with Geno Smith out.

Bears @ Lions

• Chicago: WR Rome Odunze (foot) QUESTIONABLE. DB Jaquan Brisker (illness) QUESTIONABLE. DB Nick McCloud (illness) QUESTIONABLE.
• Detroit: LB Alex Anzalone (concussion) OUT. C Trystan Colon (wrist) OUT. S Thomas Harper (concussion) OUT. DL Alim McNeill (abdomen) OUT. OT Penei Sewell (ankle) OUT. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) QUESTIONABLE.

The Lions are banged up with Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill, and Alex Anzalone all out. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a knee injury. Rome Odunze is questionable for the Bears.

Dolphins @ Patriots

• Miami: RB De’Von Achane (shoulder) DOUBTFUL. S Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf) OUT. WR Jaylen Waddle (rib) QUESTIONABLE. K Jason Sanders (hip) QUESTIONABLE.
• New England: WR Kayshon Boutte (concussion) LIMITED. WR DeMario Douglas (hamstring) LIMITED. OLB Harold Landry (knee) OUT. LB Robert Spillane (ankle) OUT. C Jared Wilson (concussion) OUT.

De’Von Achane is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Jason Sanders is questionable, which matters for a Miami team that may need field goals. Jaylen Waddle is questionable with a rib injury.

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Weather Impacting Week 18 NFL Games

Most Week 18 games have clean weather, but a few spots saw notable conditions.

Seahawks @ 49ers (Saturday)

Rain throughout Saturday night’s game with heavy downpours at times. Sustained winds in the low-teens with gusts into the low-20s. Temps in the mid-50s. The weather forced both teams to lean heavily on the run, with Seattle rushing for 171 yards.

Panthers @ Buccaneers (Saturday)

Light rain showers passed over Raymond James Stadium with 20% precipitation chance. Winds in the high single digits with occasional gusts into the mid-teens. The conditions stayed manageable for a defensive slugfest.

Jets @ Bills

Cold conditions at Highmark Stadium with temps around the mid-20s. Light winds and possible snow flurries, but no significant snow expected. The bigger factor is the temperature and what that does to the football.

Bears @ Lions

Clear skies but cold temps in the low-30s at kickoff with wind chill in the low-20s. No snow or rain, just typical January football in Chicago. Light winds throughout.

Dolphins @ Patriots

Snow earlier in the day should clear before kickoff. Mostly cloudy skies with light winds throughout the game. Temps in the upper-20s with wind chill in the mid-teens. Classic Miami-in-New-England setup where the warm-weather team travels to freezing conditions.

Commanders @ Eagles

No rain or snow expected with mostly clear skies. Winds in the high single digits. Temps in the low-30s with wind chill in the low-20s. Clean conditions in Philadelphia.

Ravens @ Steelers

Cold Sunday night game with kickoff temps in the low-20s. Light winds mean no crazy wind chill. No other weather issues. Both teams are used to these conditions in January.

Browns @ Bengals

Clear skies, no rain or snow, light winds, and temps in the high-30s. Perfect conditions in Cincinnati for the season finale.

Cowboys @ Giants

Partly sunny skies with light winds and temps in the mid-30s. Aside from the cooler temperatures, it’ll be smooth sailing at MetLife Stadium.