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Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Sep 23, 2021 · 5:32 PM PDT

Christian McCaffrey carries the ball
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey plays against the New York Jets during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 12, 2021, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
  • Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, September 19th
  • Our best bets last week were 0-3
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 2 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

The key to betting Week 2 in the NFL is not to overreact to what we saw in Week 1. Easier said than done when it’s the only data we have to parse, but the fact is it’s too small of a sample size to draw a precise conclusion from.

A team like Arizona is likely nowhere near as good as they looked last Sunday, while a team like Tennessee is likely nowhere near as bad. We’ll dive deeper into the Cardinals later, but for now the focus is on New Orleans.

Week 2 ATS Picks

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers NO (-3.5) CAR (+3.5) 1
Dallas Cowboys vs LA Chargers LAC (-3.5) LAC (-3.5) 1
 Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals ARZ (-4) MIN (+4) 1

Odds as of Sept. 16th at FanDuel and DraftKings. See bottom for rest of Week 2 Picks.

The Saints are not an NFC juggernaut, despite the beatdown they put on Green Bay last week, and are currently dealing with COVID issues.

Pick #1: Panthers Upset Saints

Eight members of the New Orleans organization, mostly coaches, tested positive for COVID this week which will definitely interfere with their preparation for Sunday’s game at Carolina. The Saints are still 3.5-point favorites versus the Panthers, but there’s plenty of reason to be less bullish on them than oddsmakers.

For starters, the Packers looked like a team playing their first preseason game last week. Full credit to New Orleans for taking advantage of that and waxing Green Bay, but Carolina will be much better prepared.

Jameis Winston is not going to play mistake free football all season, and he most definitely will not throw for five touchdowns on just 20 attempts.

Winston has performed quite well as an underdog ATS in his career, but struggles as a favorite. His teams are 7-14-1 ATS in games he’s started, and the Saints offensive line is likely to be under a lot more pressure this week than last. Only five teams had a lower pressure rate than the Packers in Week 1, while only five teams had a higher pressure rate than the Panthers.

Talent wise the matchup favors Carolina, as New Orleans features no elite playmakers outside of Alvin Kamara. The Panthers on the other hand, boast the league’s most dynamic running back in Christian McCaffrey, and two stud receivers in DJ Moore and Robby Anderson.

The Saints will be without arguably their best two defenders in Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Davenport which will make containing the Panthers weapons even more challenging.

Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a ‘dog, while underdogs in divisional games are 146-91-7 ATS in the first three weeks of the season since 2006.

Pick #2: Chargers Crush Cowboys

Next, we’ll target the LA Chargers as 3.5-point home favorites over Dallas. The Chargers rebuilt offensive line did an incredible job protecting prized QB Justin Herbert in their Week 1 win over Washington, and will face a Cowboys d-line that is likely missing both its starting edge rushers.

Randy Gregory tested positive for COVID this week, while Demarcus Lawrence broke his foot in practice. Dallas surrendered 431 yards to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and will have its hands full with Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and company.

The Cowboys offense with Dak Prescott is once again one of the league’s best, but LA’s defense is no joke. The Chargers held Washington to 259 yards last week, while difference makers Derwin James and Joey Bosa are both healthy.

Dallas is also dealing with issues on its o-line, as right tackle La’el Collins is suspended for a missed drug test. Prescott is 1-5 ATS in his last six starts, while the Cowboys are just 6-11 against the number under Mike McCarthy.

Pick #3: Vikings Clip Cardinals

Back to Arizona. The Cardinals are 4-point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings, presenting an excellent opportunity to sell high on Arizona, and buy low on Minnesota.

Kliff Kingsbury’s defense was one of the biggest stories of Week 1, as Chandler Jones recorded five sacks, while the team racked up six in total to go along with three turnovers versus Tennessee.

The Titans ran one of the most vanilla schemes imaginable, abandoning play action and doing little to slow down the Arizona pass rush. The Vikings run play action at an above league average rate, and have the pieces to keep the defense honest. Dalvin Cook is an elite running back, while Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are a dynamic 1-2 punch for Kirk Cousins.

It’s always scary to fade Kyler Murray, especially after the phenomenal performance he put up last week, but Tennessee’s defense offered little resistance. Mike Zimmer is one of the sharpest defensive minds in football, and we can expect some exotic schemes to slow down Murray.

Zimmer is 30-15 ATS with the Vikings following a loss, and his team isn’t likely to commit another 13 penalties like they did last week. Murray on the other hand, is just 2-5 all-time ATS as a favorite.

Week 2 Quick Picks

  • Jaguars (+6) vs Broncos: Talk about an overreaction. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -2.5. Yes, Jacksonville was awful in Week 1, but this is too many points.
  • Colts (+4) vs Rams: Speaking of overreactions, the lookahead line for this game was Indy -1.5. There’s no arguing LA looked fantastic on Sunday Night Football, but the Colts are way too talented to be catching this many points at home.
  • Eagles (+3.5) vs 49ers: Philly’s o-line and d-line are elite, while San Francisco is once again banged up. Kyle Shanahan teams are 7-17-2 ATS as a favorite, while the Eagles have covered in five straight as a ‘dog.
  • Bengals (+3) vs Bears: Cincy’s questionable o-line held up very well against a strong Vikings front last Sunday. Chicago meanwhile, was embarrassed by the Rams, and are 2-8 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite.
  • Texans (+12.5) vs Browns: Houston may not be as bad as predicted, while this is a let down spot for Cleveland after its heartbreaking loss to KC. Tyrod Taylor is 6-0 ATS in his last six starts between Houston, LA and Cleveland.
  • Bills (-3) vs Dolphins: Buffalo bounces back after an underwhelming season opener versus Pittsburgh. Josh Allen has five straight wins over Miami, and is 11-4-1 ATS on the road in his career.
  • Patriots (-5.5) vs Jets: Bill Belichick owns New York. His teams have beaten the Jets in 10 straight outings, while they’re 21-6 SU against rookie QB’s since 2000.
  • Steelers (-6) vs Raiders: A tough ask for Las Vegas to come across the country for an early contest after playing an overtime game on Monday Night Football. Derek Carr and Jon Gruden are 5-10 ATS together in 1 pm ET games.
  • Falcons (+13) vs Buccaneers: This is just too many points for a divisional game. Sure, Atlanta looked atrocious in Week 1, but give Arthur Smith and Matt Ryan another week to iron things out. Tampa’s offense was on fire in its opener, but the defense allowed Dallas to march up and down the field at will.
  • Titans (+6) vs Seahawks: Tennessee still features one of the most dangerous offenses in football, despite its showing last week. Expect them to bounce back in a high-scoring game versus Seattle.
  • Chiefs (-3.5) vs Ravens: No team in football is more banged up than Baltimore. In addition to all the skill position injuries they suffered in the preseason, they’ll also be without All-Pro tackle Ronnie Stanley for this matchup. Not a recipe for success against the 2019 champs.

 

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