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Week 7 Sunday Night Football Props (Bengals vs Chiefs)

Andy Dalton Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense is tasked with keeping up with the high-powered Chiefs in Week 7. Photo by emeybee (Wikimedia Commons).
  • See the three best props to bet for Sunday Night Football of Week 7
  • Can Andy Dalton carve up the Chiefs defense?
  • Which half will see more points?

The Chiefs are right back in the spotlight following the best game of the NFL season so far.

This time, the Cincinnati Bengals visit Kansas City for what’s shaping up to be another big time shootout. What props offer value in this game? Let’s examine three.

Best Week 7 Sunday Night Football Props

Prop #1: Andy Dalton passing yards

Andy Dalton Passing Yards  Odds
Over 290 yards -244
Over 310 yards -118
Over 330 yards +122
Over 350 yards +175
Over 370 yards +267
Over 390 yards +392

All odds taken on 10/20/18.

The Chiefs have only held two opposing QBs to under 330 passing yards this season: Jimmy Garoppolo (who left the game in the fourth quarter with an injury) and Case Keenum (who has no excuse and should be ashamed of himself).

The Red Rifle has had a pretty solid year so far, averaging a career high in yards per game this season.

It makes sense, Cincinnati has finally found some receivers who can be more than complements to AJ Green; they can be game wreckers themselves.

Dalton is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on the road this season and the typical Bengals game script calls for lots of passing: they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter in all but one of their games this season.

I feel comfortable taking Dalton to top 330. I wouldn’t blame you for getting greedier here.

Pick: Andy Dalton to throw for more than 330 yards (+122)

Prop #2: The game’s first score will not be a touchdown

What will the first score be?    Odds
Chiefs/Bengals TD -220
Any other score +175

Admittedly, this is more of a gut play, anticipating a regression in this category.

The first score has been a touchdown in five of six Bengals games this year and four of the Chiefs. Even in this new flag football NFL, that seems high.

As the season wears on, we’re seeing some improvements on the defensive side of the ball for both these teams, even if they still do rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive DVOA.

For example, both have tightened up in the red zone over the last few weeks, with KC allowing touchdowns 50% of the time and the Bengals doing it at 55.5% clip. (Sadly, that is an improvement.)

The Chiefs red zone D has been a stout 37.5% at home, although that is just a two-game sample size.

Still, all it takes to stall a drive is one sack or errant throw and both these defenses have a few playmakers who can force that field goal. For +175, its worth a shot.

Pick: First score is anything other than a touchdown (+175)

Prop #3: What will be the highest scoring half?

What will the highest scoring half be? Odds
1st Half -120
2nd Half +100

For the Kansas City Chiefs, the second half has been the highest scoring one in four of their first six games.

Sometimes, that’s when their offense is firing on all cylinders. Sometimes, their opponent is just making a mad dash to try and catch up. But second half fireworks have been more common in their games.

As for the Bengals, the first half has been the highest scoring half in four of their six games.

But unlike the Chiefs, whose games all have the same theme of “all the points,” Cincinnati adjusts their game script to fit their opponent.

When they played the Ravens, who don’t allow second-half touchdowns, they were sure to score them all in the first. When they played an unstoppable Falcons offense, they were sure to take the lead with no time left.

When they played a Dolphins team that is only involved in ridiculous games, they were sure that their fourth quarter comeback was utterly implausible.

The point is, the Chiefs will dictate how this game goes and the Bengals will just come along for the ride. That means I like a high scoring second half.

Pick: Second half if the highest scoring half (+100)

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