- See the three best props to bet for Sunday Night Football of Week 7
- Can Andy Dalton carve up the Chiefs defense?
- Which half will see more points?
The Chiefs are right back in the spotlight following the best game of the NFL season so far.
This time, the Cincinnati Bengals visit Kansas City for what’s shaping up to be another big time shootout. What props offer value in this game? Let’s examine three.
Best Week 7 Sunday Night Football Props
Prop #1: Andy Dalton passing yards
|Andy Dalton Passing Yards||Odds|
|Over 290 yards||-244|
|Over 310 yards||-118|
|Over 330 yards||+122|
|Over 350 yards||+175|
|Over 370 yards||+267|
|Over 390 yards||+392|
All odds taken on 10/20/18.
The Chiefs have only held two opposing QBs to under 330 passing yards this season: Jimmy Garoppolo (who left the game in the fourth quarter with an injury) and Case Keenum (who has no excuse and should be ashamed of himself).
The Red Rifle has had a pretty solid year so far, averaging a career high in yards per game this season.
It makes sense, Cincinnati has finally found some receivers who can be more than complements to AJ Green; they can be game wreckers themselves.
#Bengals' Tyler Boyd is emerging as one of the league's best receivers in the NFL in 2018. It's time he gets the attention he deserves.
— PFF CIN Bengals (@PFF_Bengals) October 17, 2018
Dalton is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on the road this season and the typical Bengals game script calls for lots of passing: they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter in all but one of their games this season.
I feel comfortable taking Dalton to top 330. I wouldn’t blame you for getting greedier here.
Pick: Andy Dalton to throw for more than 330 yards (+122)
Prop #2: The game’s first score will not be a touchdown
|What will the first score be?||Odds|
|Any other score||+175|
Admittedly, this is more of a gut play, anticipating a regression in this category.
The first score has been a touchdown in five of six Bengals games this year and four of the Chiefs. Even in this new flag football NFL, that seems high.
“Remember, we can fine it on Monday.” NFL told its officials to show a bit more restraint on roughing the passer and lowering the helmet penalties https://t.co/X5OlfS1O9C
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) October 17, 2018
As the season wears on, we’re seeing some improvements on the defensive side of the ball for both these teams, even if they still do rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive DVOA.
For example, both have tightened up in the red zone over the last few weeks, with KC allowing touchdowns 50% of the time and the Bengals doing it at 55.5% clip. (Sadly, that is an improvement.)
Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs offense watching the defense: pic.twitter.com/bC9ncK2NwM
— Marshall Brigham (@BrighamMarshall) October 15, 2018
The Chiefs red zone D has been a stout 37.5% at home, although that is just a two-game sample size.
Still, all it takes to stall a drive is one sack or errant throw and both these defenses have a few playmakers who can force that field goal. For +175, its worth a shot.
Pick: First score is anything other than a touchdown (+175)
Prop #3: What will be the highest scoring half?
|What will the highest scoring half be?||Odds|
For the Kansas City Chiefs, the second half has been the highest scoring one in four of their first six games.
Sometimes, that’s when their offense is firing on all cylinders. Sometimes, their opponent is just making a mad dash to try and catch up. But second half fireworks have been more common in their games.
— Around The NFL (@X_AroundNFL_X) October 15, 2018
As for the Bengals, the first half has been the highest scoring half in four of their six games.
But unlike the Chiefs, whose games all have the same theme of “all the points,” Cincinnati adjusts their game script to fit their opponent.
When they played the Ravens, who don’t allow second-half touchdowns, they were sure to score them all in the first. When they played an unstoppable Falcons offense, they were sure to take the lead with no time left.
When they played a Dolphins team that is only involved in ridiculous games, they were sure that their fourth quarter comeback was utterly implausible.
— Todd Thacker (@todd_thacker) October 7, 2018
The point is, the Chiefs will dictate how this game goes and the Bengals will just come along for the ride. That means I like a high scoring second half.
Pick: Second half if the highest scoring half (+100)
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