Week 8 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season resumes Sunday after the Chargers dominated the Vikings on TNF. The Week 8 NFL schedule features 13 more games through Monday night, with several matchups ripe for upsets. After missing both upset picks but nailing my best bet last week, I’m back with fresh predictions and two promising underdogs.

Last week was mixed. In terms of my picks, the Vikings lost 28-22 to Philadelphia while the Falcons fell 20-10 to San Francisco. But my best bet hit big when the Packers-Cardinals shootout sailed over 44.5 with a 34-24 final.

This week brings relatively clean weather conditions but notable injuries that will impact outcomes across the league. I’m targeting the Jets and Bears as my upset picks. These are outright winner predictions. For spread analysis, check out Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 8.

Week 8 NFL Predictions

The computer loves both my upset picks this week. It has the Bears winning by 10 and the Jets pulling off the road upset. That alignment gives me extra confidence in these selections.

NFL Best Bet for Week 8

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos: Over 50.5 Points

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • October 26, 2025 at 3:04am

Pick

Odds

Over +50.5

Over/Under

NFL • Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos

-112 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 10/26/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1761447851057-481c-708

The total opened at 48.5, and sharp money has already pushed it to 50.5. It’s still climbing, and for good reason. This game has everything we want for a shootout.

Dallas leads the NFL in total offense at 390.6 yards per game and ranks second in scoring at 31.7 points per game. Dak Prescott has thrown 16 touchdowns to just three interceptions while completing 71.4% of his passes. His 81.2 QBR leads the entire league. CeeDee Lamb has topped 110 receiving yards in all three games he’s played and finished.

DAK TO CEEDEE FOR A 74-YARD TD!

WASvsDAL on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/8qCbaD4boQ

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

The Cowboys’ defense is the real story here. They rank dead last in total defense (401.3 yards per game) and 30th in scoring defense (29.4 points per game). They’re missing Trevon Diggs (IR) and allow the most passing yards in the NFL at 260.3 per game.

Bo Nix just had the game of his life, scoring four total touchdowns in Week 7’s fourth quarter. He became the first player in NFL history to rush for two scores and pass for two touchdowns in a fourth quarter. Denver scored 33 points in the final 15 minutes—a franchise record and the most in NFL history by a team shut out through three quarters.

The Cowboys have hit the over in 15 of their last 21 games. Denver averages 23.3 points at home, but should exceed that against the league’s worst pass defense. This total should sail over.

NFL Week 8 Upset Picks

New York Jets (+6.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Don’t let the 0-7 record fool you. The Jets have lost five games by seven points or fewer, the most through seven games in franchise history. They’ve been in every game and are due for positive regression.

Cincinnati’s defense is still a big problem. They rank 31st in total defense, 30th in pass defense, and 29th in EPA per play allowed. Since Week 3, they’ve given up 252.2 passing yards per game and a 114.3 QB rating. Against the run, they’re surrendering 154.6 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.

Justin Fields will start at QB against the Bengals. pic.twitter.com/ht5lskylKU

— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 25, 2025

The Jets’ defense has improved dramatically over the last two weeks, allowing just 13 points per game (3rd in NFL) and 274 yards per game (6th). They’ve limited opponents to just three plays of 20+ yards over that span. Quinnen Williams has been dominant with an average depth of tackle of just 0.4 yards.

Joe Flacco is 40 years old with limited mobility. He’s been fortunate to avoid turnovers through two starts, but that streak feels unsustainable. The Jets have the league’s worst turnover luck, recovering just one of nine opponent fumbles. Regression is coming.

Justin Fields gets the start with Tyrod Taylor out. He’s 2-0 in his career against Cincinnati, and his mobility should exploit a Bengals defense that allows 5.0 yards per carry. Winless road underdogs in game eight or later have gone 21-12 ATS since 2003.

Chicago Bears (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are desperate at 1-5, but desperation without talent is just panic. Lamar Jackson is out for the third straight game with a hamstring injury. Tyler Huntley takes over after Cooper Rush was benched following four interceptions in two starts.

Baltimore is 4-12 without Jackson since 2019. They’ve scored just 13 combined points in the two games Rush started. The offense has managed 33 total points in three games Jackson hasn’t both started and finished. They’re averaging just 6.5 points per game since Week 5, fewest in the NFL.

The #Ravens have now made it official: Lamar Jackson is out and they updated his status on Friday from full to limited. pic.twitter.com/T06U6Po4MO

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 25, 2025

Chicago leads the NFL with 16 takeaways despite playing just six games due to their Week 5 bye. They have 11 interceptions and have forced at least three turnovers in each game during their four-game winning streak. Their +11 turnover margin is best in the NFL.

Baltimore’s defense ranks 31st against the pass and 26th against the run. They’re 30th in EPA per play allowed and have just eight sacks on the season, tied for fewest in the NFL. They allow touchdowns in the red zone 77.8% of the time.

D’Andre Swift has rushed for 232 yards over his last two games, averaging 7.0 yards per carry. The Ravens allow 134.3 rushing yards per game. Caleb Williams faces a secondary that allows 246.5 passing yards per game. The Bears have scored at least 21 points in all six games this season.

Teams with a winning percentage of 20% or less as 3+ point favorites against winning teams have gone 30-14-2 ATS since 2003. But I’m also not scared to take the Bears to win outright.

Most Impactful NFL Injuries for Week 8

Dolphins at Falcons

• Michael Penix Jr., QB (Falcons): QUESTIONABLE – Knee
• Tyler Allgeier, RB (Falcons): QUESTIONABLE – Hip/Knee
• Drake London, WR (Falcons): QUESTIONABLE – Hip

The Falcons are “highly likely” to turn to Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix battling a knee injury. London was added to the injury report late in the week and will be a true game-time decision.

Allgeier’s status will determine whether Atlanta has their change-of-pace back behind Bijan Robinson.

Bears at Ravens

• Lamar Jackson, QB (Ravens): OUT – Hamstring
• Tyrique Stevenson, CB (Bears): OUT – Shoulder
• Kyler Gordon, CB (Bears): OUT – Groin/Calf
• Cole Kmet, TE (Bears): OUT – Back
• D’Andre Swift, RB (Bears): QUESTIONABLE – Groin
• Braxton Jones, LT (Bears): OUT – Knee (IR)
• Austin Booker, DE (Bears): OUT – Knee

Jackson’s hamstring keeps him out for a third straight game, leaving Tyler Huntley to start after Cooper Rush’s benching. The NFL is investigating Baltimore’s handling of Jackson’s practice participation after the team changed his Friday status from full to limited and downgraded him from questionable to out.

The Bears defense takes a hit losing both starting corners Stevenson and Gordon, plus edge rusher Booker. Cole Kmet’s absence leaves a hole at tight end, and Swift’s groin issue could limit Chicago’s ground game that’s been rolling lately. Left tackle Braxton Jones was also placed on IR with a knee injury.

Bills at Panthers

• Bryce Young, QB (Panthers): DOUBTFUL – Ankle
• Dalton Kincaid, TE (Bills): QUESTIONABLE – Oblique
• Joshua Palmer, WR (Bills): OUT – Knee/Ankle
• Taylor Rapp, S (Bills): OUT – Knee (IR)

Andy Dalton will likely get the start for Carolina with Young’s ankle keeping him doubtful. The third-year QB has helped lead the Panthers to a 4-3 start, but now the veteran Dalton faces a Bills team coming off their bye.

Buffalo loses Palmer and could be without tight end Kincaid, which would mean more work for Dawson Knox. Safety Taylor Rapp was placed on IR and will miss at least four games, with backup Jordan Poyer stepping in.

Jets at Bengals

• Garrett Wilson, WR (Jets): OUT – Knee
• Sauce Gardner, CB (Jets): OUT – Concussion
• Breece Hall, RB (Jets): QUESTIONABLE – Knee
• Tyrod Taylor, QB (Jets): QUESTIONABLE – Knee
• Trey Hendrickson, DE (Bengals): QUESTIONABLE – Hip
• Cedric Johnson, DE (Bengals): OUT – Calf

The Jets are banged up on both sides of the ball. Losing Wilson removes their top receiving threat while Gardner’s concussion leaves a massive hole in the secondary.

Hall dealt with knee issues all week, but practiced in full Friday and should play. With Taylor questionable, Justin Fields appears locked in as the starter. Cincinnati’s pass rush takes a hit if Hendrickson can’t go after missing last week, and they’ll definitely be without Cedric Johnson.

49ers at Texans

• Brock Purdy, QB (49ers): OUT – Toe
• Ricky Pearsall, WR (49ers): OUT – Knee
• Jake Brendel, C (49ers): OUT – Hamstring
• Bryce Huff, DE (49ers): OUT – Hamstring
• Yetur Gross-Matos, DE (49ers): OUT – Knee/Hamstring
• Nico Collins, WR (Texans): OUT – Concussion
• Christian Kirk, WR (Texans): OUT – Hamstring

Mac Jones continues his impressive run as San Francisco’s starter, going 4-1 in Purdy’s absence. The 49ers will also be without center Brendel and defensive ends Huff and Gross-Matos.

The Texans offense faces a nightmare scenario without both Collins and Kirk against the 49ers’ elite defense.

Browns at Patriots

• David Njoku, TE (Browns): QUESTIONABLE – Knee
• Shedeur Sanders, QB (Browns): QUESTIONABLE – Back

Both teams enter relatively healthy. Njoku’s knee issue is worth monitoring as rookie QB Dillon Gabriel needs all the security blankets he can get.

Sanders was added to the injury report Saturday after his back tightened up, prompting Cleveland to elevate Bailey Zappe from the practice squad as insurance.

Giants at Eagles

• A.J. Brown, WR (Eagles): OUT – Hamstring
• Adoree’ Jackson, CB (Eagles): OUT – Neck
• Cam Jurgens, OL (Eagles): OUT – Knee
• Azeez Ojulari, LB (Eagles): OUT – Hamstring
• Jakorian Bennett, CB (Eagles): OUT – Pectoral
• Graham Gano, K (Giants): ACTIVATED FROM IR

Just when Brown was heating up with over 200 yards in his last two games, the hamstring strikes again. He didn’t practice all week and misses a favorable matchup against the Giants.

Philadelphia will also be without cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, offensive lineman Cam Jurgens, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari. The Giants get good news with Graham Gano returning from injured reserve.

Buccaneers at Saints

• Mike Evans, WR (Buccaneers): IR – Clavicle
• Chris Godwin, WR (Buccaneers): OUT – Fibula
• Bucky Irving, RB (Buccaneers): OUT – Foot
• Vita Vea, DT (Buccaneers): QUESTIONABLE – Foot
• Haason Reddick, LB (Buccaneers): OUT – Ankle/Knee

The injuries keep piling up for Tampa Bay. Evans landed on IR with a broken clavicle and is expected to undergo surgery this week, facing a recovery timeline of eight weeks or less. Godwin remains out with his fibula injury, and top back Irving can’t go with his foot problem. Linebacker Haason Reddick is also out with ankle and knee issues.

If Vea can’t play, the Saints should be able to run at will. New Orleans enters completely healthy.

Cowboys at Broncos

• Trevon Diggs, CB (Cowboys): OUT – Concussion (IR)
• Tyler Guyton, OT (Cowboys): QUESTIONABLE – Glute
• Cooper Beebe, IOL (Cowboys): OUT – Ankle (IR)
• Juanyeh Thomas, S (Cowboys): OUT – Migraine

Dallas’ already terrible defense loses starting corner Diggs, who was placed on IR with a concussion and will miss at least four games. Bo Nix should be licking his chops.

Center Cooper Beebe was also placed on IR with an ankle injury, while tackle Guyton remains questionable. Safety Juanyeh Thomas is out with a migraine. The Broncos have a completely clean injury report.

Titans at Colts

• Calvin Ridley, WR (Titans): OUT – Hamstring
• Jeffrey Simmons, DT (Titans): OUT – Hamstring
• Blake Hance, G (Titans): OUT – Shoulder
• Bryce Oliver, WR (Titans): OUT – Knee
• Samson Ebukam, DE (Colts): OUT – Knee
• Tyquan Lewis, DE (Colts): QUESTIONABLE – Groin
• Jaylon Jones, CB (Colts): OUT

Tennessee loses one key player on each side of the ball. Ridley’s absence opens opportunities for young receivers like Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Deke. Without Simmons anchoring the defensive line, Jonathan Taylor should have a field day for the red-hot Colts.

The Titans will also be without guard Blake Hance and receiver Bryce Oliver. Indianapolis has defensive end Samson Ebukam and cornerback Jaylon Jones out, with Tyquan Lewis questionable.

Packers at Steelers (SNF)

• Dontayvion Wicks, WR (Packers): OUT – Calf
• Matthew Golden, WR (Packers): QUESTIONABLE – Hip
• Christian Watson, WR (Packers): QUESTIONABLE – Knee

The Packers could be down three receivers in the Aaron Rodgers Bowl. Wicks is definitely out, first-round rookie Golden is questionable, and Watson hasn’t played all season with his knee issue.

Rodgers needs a win to complete victories over all 32 NFL franchises.

Commanders at Chiefs (MNF)

• Jayden Daniels, QB (Commanders): OUT – Hamstring
• Terry McLaurin, WR (Commanders): WILL PLAY – Quad
• Deebo Samuel, WR (Commanders): WILL PLAY – Heel
• Daron Payne, DT (Commanders): QUESTIONABLE – Toe
• Matt Gay, K (Commanders): QUESTIONABLE – Back
• Colson Yankoff, TE (Commanders): OUT – Hamstring
• Kareem Hunt, RB (Chiefs): QUESTIONABLE – Knee/Ankle
• Trey Smith, G (Chiefs): QUESTIONABLE – Back

Marcus Mariota takes over with Daniels sidelined by his hamstring. There’s a real possibility Daniels misses just one start with the low-grade strain.

The good news for Washington is that McLaurin returns after missing time since Week 3, and Samuel is back after sitting out last week. Defensive tackle Daron Payne and kicker Matt Gay are both questionable, while tight end Colson Yankoff is out.

For Kansas City, running back Kareem Hunt is dealing with knee and ankle injuries and guard Trey Smith missed the last two days of practice with a back injury. The line ballooned to Chiefs -12.5 after Daniels was ruled out.

Weather Impacting Week 8 NFL Games

Week 8 brings mostly favorable conditions across the board, though a few games need monitoring for precipitation.

Jets at Bengals: Temperature around 59°F with a 25% chance of light rain. Winds at 7 mph NE. The rain chance is low enough that it shouldn’t significantly impact the game. Start your players with confidence.

Browns at Patriots: Clear skies with temperatures at 51°F. Winds light at 7 mph NW. Perfect football weather in Foxborough.

Bears at Ravens: Mostly cloudy with temperatures at 60°F. Very light winds at 3 mph NE. No weather concerns at M&T Bank Stadium.

Buccaneers at Saints: The biggest weather concern of the week with a 42% chance of rain showers. Temperature at 79°F with 10 mph SW winds. This is the one game where weather could impact scoring. Consider the under if rain develops.

Cowboys at Broncos: Partly cloudy with temperatures at 69°F. Light 5 mph winds from the east. Mile High conditions should be ideal for scoring.

Packers at Steelers (SNF): Clear skies but chilly at 48°F. Light winds at 5 mph NE. Cold but dry conditions for Sunday night.

Commanders at Chiefs (MNF): 35% chance of rain showers with temperatures at 58°F. Winds at 6 mph SE. Worth monitoring closer to kickoff as rain could impact the total.

The remaining games (Dolphins-Falcons, Giants-Eagles, Bills-Panthers, 49ers-Texans, Titans-Colts) all have minimal weather concerns with mostly clear or partly cloudy conditions. Check out our NFL odds page for the latest lines on all Week 8 games.