Week 9 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season arrives with playoff implications mounting across the league. The slate continues with 13 games from Sunday through Monday night, with several teams desperate for victories to salvage their seasons. After correctly predicting the Cowboys-Broncos shootout that sailed over 50.5 last week, I’m back with fresh predictions and two upset picks I believe hold value.

My picks last week delivered solid results. The Jets staged a wild comeback to win 39-38 as 6.5-point underdogs vs Cincinnati, giving us one upset pick. However, the Bears didn’t come close in Baltimore, losing 30-16. Fortunately, my best bet hit when the Cowboys and Broncos combined for 68 points, easily clearing the Over 50.5.

This week brings foggy conditions in Cincinnati and Los Angeles, plus potential rain in Green Bay that could impact scoring. I’m targeting the Giants and Broncos as my upset picks, both getting points in winnable road matchups. These are outright winner predictions. For spread analysis, check out Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 9.

Week 9 NFL Predictions

The computer model shows strong conviction on several games this week, projecting the Chargers to win 29-8 over Tennessee, the Rams to dominate 27-7 against New Orleans, and the Colts to roll 35-19 over Pittsburgh.

In terms of how the model correlates with my NFL picks this week, it doesn’t predict the Giants will pull off the upset against the 49ers. However, it’s predicting a narrow upset for Denver over Houston, and a convincing win for Chicago over Cincinnati.

NFL Best Bet for Week 9

Chicago Bears Moneyline (-148) over Cincinnati Bengals

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 2, 2025 at 6:59am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

-148 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 11/02/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1762066746414-481c-998

Forget the spread. Forget the over. If you’re betting this Bears-Bengals game, there’s only one play: Chicago straight up at -148 on DraftKings.

Cincinnati has the worst defense in NFL history through eight games in multiple categories. The Bengals allow 407.9 yards per game (dead last) and 31.6 points per game (also dead last). They’ve allowed at least 27 points and 350 yards in seven straight games, tied for the longest streak in NFL history. If the Bears hit those marks Sunday, the Bengals become the first team ever to surrender 27 points and 350 yards in eight consecutive games.

The key injury news: Trey Hendrickson is doubtful with a hip injury. He has four of Cincinnati’s 11 sacks this season. Without him, the Bengals haven’t recorded a single sack over the past two weeks. Joe Flacco is questionable with a shoulder injury, specifically an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder at age 40.

The #Bengals list Joe Flacco (AC joint sprain) as questionable, while DE Trey Hendrickson (hip) is doubtful.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 31, 2025

The Bears are 4-0 this season when forcing 2+ turnovers. They lead the NFL with 16 takeaways despite playing just seven games. Caleb Williams has faced three bottom-10 defenses this year, and they were his three best games by yards and yards per attempt. Cincinnati allows TDs on 68% of opponent red zone possessions.

At -148, you’re laying $148 to win $100, basically a 60% implied probability. Every expert prediction has the Bears winning by margins ranging from 3 to 14 points. Why mess around with the spread when you can just bet Chicago to win?

NFL Week 9 Upset Picks

New York Giants (+2.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 2, 2025 at 7:00am

Pick

Odds

HomeTeam

Moneyline

NFL • San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants

125 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 11/02/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1762066834179-481c-874

The 49ers’ injury report reads like a hospital census. Nick Bosa is done for the season with a torn ACL. Fred Warner is also on season-ending IR. That’s both their defensive anchors gone. Brock Purdy is questionable with turf toe, though Mac Jones will get his fifth straight start.

San Francisco ranks dead last in the NFL with just 1.13 sacks per game. Since Bosa went down in Week 3, they’ve generated only five sacks in six games. Against Houston last week, they couldn’t lay a finger on C.J. Stroud: zero sacks, two QB hits on 39 attempts.

CJ Stroud when asked how he played vs 49ers:

“I don’t think we gave up any sacks. Me getting the ball out of my hands definitely helped.. played solid, defintley things to clean up.. I know what I can do, I know I’m a top guy in this league when I’m rolling.” pic.twitter.com/mANNZJzKSg

— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) October 26, 2025

Meanwhile, the Giants have Brian Burns leading the league with 10 sacks, Kayvon Thibodeaux with 25 pressures, and rookie Abdul Carter putting up 33 pressures. Dexter Lawrence gets double-teamed on 61.2% of his pass rushes (best in the league), freeing everyone else.

Rookie Jaxson Dart just won NFC Offensive Rookie of the Month after throwing seven TDs in October. He’s scored rushing touchdowns in four of five starts and has thrown and run for a TD in the same game four times, tying the most by a Giants QB in a single season.

The Giants allow 148.9 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL), which should help Christian McCaffrey. But the 49ers’ offense ranks 26th in scoring at just 20 points per game. They’ve alternated wins and losses in their last six games. The line opened at 3 and dropped to 2.5, showing respected money on the Giants. Check out the 49ers vs Giants matchup page for detailed analysis.

Denver Broncos (+1.5) over Houston Texans

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 2, 2025 at 7:00am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans

118 on BetMGM

SCHEDULED • 11/02/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1762066858620-481c-568

The Broncos lead the entire NFL with 36 sacks, 10 more than any other team. They’re on pace for 76.5 sacks, which would shatter the 1984 Bears’ record of 72. Denver’s the first team in NFL history with at least 35 sacks on defense while allowing 10 or fewer on offense through eight games.

Here’s where Denver really separates itself: red zone efficiency. The Broncos allow touchdowns on just 40% of red zone trips (tied for best in the NFL). Houston? They’re scoring TDs on just 42.1% of their red zone possessions, 31st in the league and second-worst.

Broncos' defense leads the NFL in 3rd down defense (27.2%), 4th-down defense (20%) and red zone defense (28.6%) pic.twitter.com/ewxsVB1GRa

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) October 18, 2025

Yes, Pat Surtain is out with a pectoral injury. But Houston’s getting back Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, which actually helps Denver’s betting value. Houston hasn’t been explosive offensively even when healthy. They’re scoring 21.9 points per game (21st) and rank 31st in red zone scoring.

Bo Nix just threw for four TDs against Dallas. In his last five quarters, he’s thrown eight touchdowns. Denver’s scored 77 points in their last five quarters. When Houston blitzed at a season-high 33.3% last week, the 49ers picked them apart. Denver’s O-line has allowed the lowest QB pressure rate (25.6%) and just eight sacks all season.

The line opened with Denver slightly favored, but has flipped to Houston -1.5, likely a reaction to Surtain’s injury. The total crashed from 45.5 to 39.5. In defensive slugfests, you want the team getting points with the better defense. Take Denver +1.5. Visit the Broncos vs Texans odds for live line movement.

Most Impactful NFL Injuries for Week 9

Ravens at Dolphins

• No major injuries reported

Panthers at Packers

• Bryce Young, QB (Panthers): Will start – Ankle cleared
• Andy Dalton, QB (Panthers): QUESTIONABLE – Right thumb
• Dontayvion Wicks, WR (Packers): OUT – Calf
• Brandon McManus, K (Packers): QUESTIONABLE – Right quad

Young returns from his ankle injury to start. McManus went 2-for-4 on field goals last week and his status bears watching.

Broncos at Texans

• Pat Surtain II, CB (Broncos): OUT – Pectoral (expected 4-6 weeks)
• Marvin Mims Jr., WR (Broncos): OUT – Concussion
• Nico Collins, WR (Texans): Will play – Cleared from injury
• Dalton Schultz, TE (Texans): Expected to play – Knee/Shoulder

Denver loses their Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Collins returns to boost Houston’s passing attack.

Vikings at Lions

• J.J. McCarthy, QB (Vikings): Will start – Ankle cleared
• Christian Darrisaw, LT (Vikings): Will play – Knee
• Kerby Joseph, S (Lions): OUT – Knee
• Taylor Decker, LT (Lions): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder

McCarthy returns for his first start since Week 2, marking his return to Michigan where he played college football.

Colts at Steelers

• Will Howard, QB (Steelers): QUESTIONABLE – Right hand
• Jabrill Peppers, S (Steelers): OUT – Quadriceps
• Grover Stewart, DT (Colts): QUESTIONABLE – Foot

Howard’s hand injury needs monitoring. Stewart practiced fully Friday after missing time earlier in the week.

Bears at Bengals

• D’Andre Swift, RB (Bears): OUT – Groin
• Luther Burden III, WR (Bears): OUT – Concussion
• Roschon Johnson, RB (Bears): OUT – Back
• Trey Hendrickson, DE (Bengals): DOUBTFUL – Hip
• Joe Flacco, QB (Bengals): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder
• Logan Wilson, LB (Bengals): DOUBTFUL – Calf

Chicago’s backfield is decimated. Cincinnati’s best defensive player is likely out, and Flacco is playing through shoulder pain at 40 years old.

49ers at Giants

• Brock Purdy, QB (49ers): QUESTIONABLE – Toe (Mac Jones will start)
• Nick Bosa, DE (49ers): OUT – Season-ending injury
• Fred Warner, LB (49ers): OUT – Injured reserve
• Ricky Pearsall, WR (49ers): OUT – Knee
• Cor’Dale Flott, CB (Giants): OUT – Concussion
• Daniel Bellinger, TE (Giants): DOUBTFUL – Neck

Mac Jones starts his fifth straight game. San Francisco is missing both defensive cornerstones for the season.

Saints at Rams

• Alvin Kamara, RB (Saints): Expected to play – Ankle
• Rashid Shaheed, WR (Saints): Expected to play – Hip
• Puka Nacua, WR (Rams): Will play – Cleared from ankle

Kamara and Shaheed both expected to suit up. Nacua returns for the Rams after missing time.

Jaguars at Raiders

• Travis Hunter, WR/DB (Jaguars): IR – Knee (out 4 weeks minimum)
• Tim Patrick, WR (Jaguars): OUT – Groin
• Jakobi Meyers, WR (Raiders): Will play – Cleared
• Brock Bowers, TE (Raiders): Will play – Cleared

Hunter’s ACL appears intact, but he’ll miss at least four weeks. The Raiders get both top receiving targets back.

Chiefs at Bills

• Trey Smith, G (Chiefs): Expected to play – Back
• Josh Palmer, WR (Bills): OUT – Knee/Ankle
• DaQuan Jones, DT (Bills): OUT – Calf

Smith practiced fully Friday and should play. The Bills are missing depth on both sides of the ball.

Seahawks at Commanders (SNF)

• Julian Love, S (Seahawks): IR – Hamstring
• Cooper Kupp, WR (Seahawks): QUESTIONABLE – Heel/Hamstring
• Terry McLaurin, WR (Commanders): OUT – Quad
• Jayden Daniels, QB (Commanders): Will play – Cleared

Daniels returns but loses his top target, McLaurin. Seattle’s secondary takes another hit with Love on IR.

Cardinals at Cowboys (MNF)

• Kyler Murray, QB (Cardinals): Active but won’t start – Foot
• Jacoby Brissett, QB (Cardinals): Will start – Third straight game

Brissett gets another start as Murray continues recovering from his foot injury.

Weather Impacting Week 9 NFL Games

Week 9 brings some interesting weather conditions that could impact scoring and game plans across multiple matchups.

Bears at Bengals: Foggy conditions with temperatures at 47°F and light 3 mph SE winds. The fog could impact visibility for deep passes, potentially favoring the running game and short passing attack.

Panthers at Packers: Most impactful weather of the week with 45°F temperatures and a 33% chance of rain. Gusty 14 mph SW winds could affect the passing and kicking games. Consider the under if conditions worsen.

Chargers at Titans: 51°F with an 18% chance of rain and light 6 mph winds. Pregame rain is likely but should clear by kickoff with minimal game impact.

Saints at Rams: Fog expected with 64°F temperatures and light 4 mph SW winds. Similar to Cincinnati, visibility could be a factor for the passing games.

Chiefs at Bills: Mid-40s temperatures with no precipitation expected. Cold but manageable conditions for both high-powered offenses.

Seahawks at Commanders (SNF): 51°F with a 27% chance of light rain and minimal 2 mph winds. Monitor closer to kickoff, but impact should be minimal.

The remaining games feature clear or partly cloudy skies with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid-70s. Wind shouldn’t be a major factor in any dome or warm-weather games. Check out our NFL odds page for the latest lines on all Week 9 matchups.