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Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends – Underdogs Profitable, 7 Seeds Struggle & Brady’s MNF Record

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 12, 2023 · 8:22 AM PST

Tom Brady is 4-2 SU in Wild Card Weekend games
Sep 11, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) in action during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends are showing that betting underdogs to cover is a wise strategy
  • Over the past five years, favorites are just 8-16 ATS on Wild Card Weekend
  • However, they bounced back in a big way last season, going 5-1

Sure, every dog has its day, but the NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends are showing that maybe the day of the underdog is done.

Heading into last season, underdogs were on a 15-3 against the spread roll over the previous four seasons on Wild Card Weekend. That’s an astonishing 83% coverage rate.

It turned around in a big way last season, though. Favorites were 5-1 both straight up and ATS during Wild Card Weekend last season. Home favorites were also 5-1.

Should you stick with the underdogs this season, or look at last year’s smaller sample size as a changing of the tide? What are some of the other quirky and unusual Wild Card Weekend betting trends to consider in the NFL odds?

For one, betting on an outright winner in the Wild Card Round has also proved to be profitable from an ATS standpoint. Straight-up winners on Wild Card Weekend have an ATS record of 54-7-1 over the past 62 games. So be sure to consider this and the following trends when making your Wild Card bets this weekend.


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Bengals Postseason Record

The Cincinnati Bengals are rolling into the playoffs unbeaten since Halloween. They’re the defending AFC champions. And yet, there’s a betting trend associated with the AFC North champs that perhaps should have you leaning toward a wager on the visiting Baltimore Ravens on Wild Card Weekend.

In franchise history, the Bengals have never won postseason games in successive years. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-2 straight up all-time on Wild Card Weekend. As a road team, Baltimore is 6-0 SU and ATS in Wild Card games.

Cincinnati is set as the 8.5-point home favorites in this game. The Ravens are 3-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog in Wild Card games.

Betting Against 7 Seeds on Wild Card Weekend

Last season was the second time in a non-strike season that there were #7 seeds in the NFL Playoffs. And it didn’t go well.

The two 7-seeds both lost by a combined margin of 73-36. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 as 12.5-point favorites. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also covered as the 8.5-point chalk, whipping the Philadelphia Eagles 31-15.

The year before, the Indianapolis Colts lost 27-24 to the Buffalo Bulls, while the Chicago Bears fell 21-9 at the New Orleans Saints. The seven seeds are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

That doesn’t bode well for either of this season’s sevens. The Seattle Seahawks are 9.5-point underdogs at the San Francisco 49ers. At Buffalo, the Miami Dolphins are 13.5-point underdogs.

Cowboys Aren’t Road Warriors, Brady’s MNF Record

The Dallas Cowboys are going to Raymond James Stadium as 2.5-point road favorites over the Buccaneers. But they won’t be arriving as fans of another famous Texas institution, Willie Nelson.

On The Road Again clearly isn’t on the playlist inside the Cowboys’ locker room. This is the first time Dallas has been the road chalk in an NFL playoff game since a January 5, 1997 date at Ericsson Stadium.

Dallas was a 3.5-point away pick at the Carolina Panthers – and lost outright 26-17. In fact, the Cowboys haven’t won a road playoff game since January 2, 1993. They beat the 49ers 30-20 in the NFC Championship Game. They’re 0-8 SU on the road in the postseason since that game.

After beating the 49ers, Dallas won the Super Bowl that season, so that means they’re either winning the big game or losing to the Buccaneers. Best to wager on the latter.

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is 7-0 straight up in seven starts facing the Cowboys. In those seven games, he’s thrown for an average of 277.8 yards per game, and 2.14 TDs per game.

This game is also being played on Monday night. Brady is 20-8 SU all-time on MNF.

Odds Against Bengals and Vikings

Since both #1 seeds get a first-round bye, for one week at least, the song can’t be right. One isn’t the loneliest number. It’s three.

Last year’s 47-17 thumping of the New England Patriots by the Bills ended an 0-6 SU skid for 3-seeds on Wild Card Weekend. It was the Cowboys, the 3-seed in the NFC, who lost 23-17 to the #6 49ers.

The previous win by a #3 seed came in 2017 when the Jacksonville Jaguars edged Buffalo 10-3. Three seeds haven’t swept both games on Wild Card Weekend since 2016. In other words, the odds are fairly good that one of this season’s #3 seeds – either the Bengals (AFC) or the Minnesota Vikings (NFC) – are going down to defeat on Wild Card Weekend.

While not as bad as #3, the 4-seed has also known struggles. Both #4 seeds won last season. That also hadn’t happened since 2016. They’d gone 3-5 SU from 2017-20.


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