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Wild Card Weekend Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Jan 10, 2023 · 2:32 PM PST

Tom Brady is 7-0 SU against Dallas
Jan 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) on the sideline against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
  • In the NFL Wild Card Weekend picks against the spread, there are some intriguing early lines to target
  • At home, the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers
  • The Dallas Cowboys are the 3-point road chalk at Tampa Bay, even through Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is 7-0 straight up against Dallas

In weighing the NFL Wild Card picks against the spread, one of the unique aspects available to bettors is a healthy supply of head-to-head data. That’s because all six games on top this weekend are regular-season rematches.

Three of the games will be seeing teams clashing for the third time this season. In the nine previous meetings this season in these Wild Card Weekend rematches, the home team was dominant straight up, going 6-3. However away teams were 7-2 ATS.

Which of these games are worth a play in the Wild Card Weekend NFL odds as ATS picks? Let’s take a look at that and all of the Wild Card picks against the spread.

Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars LAC-1 JAX 1
 New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings MIN-3 MIN 1
Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers DAL-3 TB 1

Odds as of January 10 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL in Wild Card Weekend

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Jaguars, Vikings and Buccaneers.

Wild Card ATS Pick 1: Jaguars Already Whipped Chargers Once

In Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars put a 38-10 beat down on the Chargers. That game was played in Los Angeles and the Jaguars weren’t nearly the team that they are now.

Both of these clubs are coming into the postseason riding hot streaks. Jacksonville has won five in a row and six of seven games. Los Angeles is 4-1 over the past five games. The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five games while the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

LA WR Mike Williams limped off the field in the Chargers’ Week 18 loss at Denver with back spasms. He’s a key cog in their offense.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns. RB Travis Etienne ran for 1,125 yards. And Jacksonville’s coach Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +1 (-110), 1 unit

Wild Card ATS Pick 2: Vikings the Better of Two Overachieving Teams

On Christmas Eve, Greg Joseph kicked a 61-yard field goal on the last play of the game to give Minnesota a 27-24 verdict over the Giants. That day, the Giants had no answers for Vikings All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson. He caught 12 passes for 133 yards and a TD.

Minnesota didn’t cover in that win over the Giants. The Vikings were just 7-9-1 ATS this season, while New York was an NFL-best 13-4. At the same time, the Vikings were 11-0 SU in games decided by the margin of one score.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110), 1 unit

Wild Card ATS Pick 3: Brady Is Perfect Against Cowboys

Seven times Tom Brady has faced the Dallas Cowboys. In all seven games, he’s beaten Dallas.

Anyone for eight-for-eight? At home, NFC South champion Tampa Bay is getting three points from the oddsmakers.

Brady is 7-3 SU and ATS as an underdog in the NFL Playoffs. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU in the last five postseason games. Dallas hasn’t won a road playoff game since 1992.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-120), 1 unit

  • ATS season record 32-22-1, +10 units

Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati was an AFC-best 12-4 ATS this season. But the seven-game ATS win streak of the Bengals was halted at home last week by a Ravens team that was missing several starters and went with third-stringer Anthony Brown at QB. The majority of those first-team players will be back for this Wild Card game.
  • Buffalo Bills (-10.5) vs Miami Dolphins: Buffalo was a middling 8-7-1 ATS during regular-season play and 0-2 ATS this season against Miami, so laying double digits and betting the Bills seems like a sucker play. Except for the fact that the Dolphins don’t know who will be their starting QB and they only made the playoffs because the New York Jets (0-6 SU), Miami’s Week 18 opponent, managed to limp even more sadly to the finish line than the Dolphins (1-5 SU).
  • San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs Seattle Seahawks: San Francisco is 2-0 both SU and ATS in two clashes with Seattle this season. Prior to this season, the 49ers were 2-15 SU when facing the Seahawks. San Francisco was a solid 11-6 ATS during the regular season, while Seattle was 7-10.



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