Will Aaron Rodgers Retire? See Updated Odds After Mike Tomlin Resigns as Steelers Coach

• Aaron Rodgers retirement odds skyrocketed on Kalshi after Mike Tomlin’s resignation
• The 42-year-old quarterback’s final pass was a pick-six in the Steelers’ playoff loss
• See the complete betting market breakdown and Rodgers’ retirement analysis

Aaron Rodgers’ NFL career appears to be over. The 42-year-old quarterback’s retirement odds jumped to 77% on Kalshi’s prediction market Tuesday after Mike Tomlin resigned as Pittsburgh Steelers head coach.

Tomlin stepped down just one day after the Steelers’ 30-6 wild-card loss to Houston. The timing removes the primary reason Rodgers might have returned for a 22nd season.

Here are the latest odds for Rodgers to retire following Tomlin’s resignation, plus our betting analysis further below.

Aaron Rodgers Retirement Odds

Odds as of Jan. 13 on Kalshi prediction markets. Trading volume has exceeded $25,000.

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The market moved sharply toward retirement after Monday night’s playoff disaster and accelerated Tuesday when Tomlin’s resignation was announced. Rodgers came to Pittsburgh specifically to play for Tomlin, and without that connection, the incentive to return evaporates.

You can track the live Aaron Rodgers retirement market on Kalshi below:

Rodgers’ Playoff Performance Against Houston

If Rodgers retires, his final pass was a 50-yard pick-six to Houston safety Calen Bullock. The statistical line from his last game makes it an ugly exit: 17-of-33 passing, 146 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, two fumbles.

The 146 passing yards marked the lowest of his 22-game playoff career. His 50.8 passer rating was also a playoff career-worst. Rodgers absorbed 12 quarterback hits and had four passes batted down at the line.

ESPN’s Troy Aikman said during the broadcast: “I think we are watching Aaron Rodgers’ last game.” Aikman retired at 34 due to injuries and concussions, so he knows when a quarterback has reached the end.

How Mike Tomlin’s Resignation Impacts Aaron Rodgers’ Future

Rodgers was asked about Tomlin’s future during his post-game press conference Monday night. After giving a lengthy answer in support of his coach, a reporter asked another Tomlin question.

“I’ve talked extensively about how I feel about Mike… and I just did in that f**king answer,” Rodgers said. Then he walked out.

Rodgers called criticism of Tomlin “an absolute joke” multiple times. Less than 24 hours later, Tomlin informed players during a 2 p.m. ET meeting Tuesday that he was stepping down after 19 seasons, and the Steelers will search for just their fourth head coach since 1969.

What Aaron Rodgers Said About His Future

Rodgers refused to commit either way after the playoff loss. “I’m not going to make any emotional decisions,” he said. “Disappointed obviously. Such a fun year. A lot of adversity but a lot of fun.”

When asked if Monday could be his final game, Rodgers gave his standard response: “Every game could be my last game.”

ESPN’s Lisa Salters revealed that during Week 15, Rodgers told the broadcast crew his retirement stance was “probably” and added, “It just feels like the end.” When he signed his one-year, $13.65 million deal with Pittsburgh in June, he said: “I’m pretty sure this is it, you know, that’s why we just did a one-year deal.”

Potential Aaron Rodgers Landing Spots for 2026

An AFC executive told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler: “I can’t think of a team where he fits.”

The teams that need quarterbacks don’t make sense for a 43-year-old coming off a brutal playoff performance. Las Vegas holds the No. 1 pick and is targeting Fernando Mendoza. Minnesota needs a long-term answer after ranking 29th in passing. Miami is expected to move on from Tua Tagovailoa but needs someone who can survive behind their pass protection.

The Raiders allowed 64 sacks in 2025, most in the NFL, and Rodgers absorbed 12 hits in one playoff game. That combination doesn’t work. Pittsburgh might have been the only place that made sense, and only because of Tomlin.

Will Aaron Rodgers Retire?

According to the prediction markets, yes, Aaron Rodgers will retire. He finishes with a Hall of Fame resume: 66,274 passing yards (4th all-time), 527 touchdowns (4th all-time), a record-tying 102.2 career passer rating, four MVP awards, and a Super Bowl XLV championship.

The 77% Aaron Rodgers retirement odds on Kalshi back that up. The age, injuries, brutal playoff ending, Tomlin’s resignation, and lack of landing spots all point the same direction.

Rodgers said his decision involves “getting away and then having the right conversations.” Those conversations will likely end with him hanging it up.