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2020 NHL Draft Lottery Odds Phase 2; Which Team Will Land Lafreniere?

NHL Draft Lottery
Eight teams have an equal chance to win the NHL draft lottery Monday August 10th. Photo from @NHLdotcom (Twitter)
  • The second phase of the NHL draft lottery takes place tonight at 6:00 pm eastern time
  • Eight teams have a chance to win the lottery and snag the first overall pick
  • See the odds and with past lottery history for each team below

For the eight teams that lost their qualifying playoff matchups, there is a silver lining – they have a 12.5% chance of landing the first overall pick and the prized possession of being able to draft presumptive #1 pick Alexis Lafreniere.

The National Hockey League has had a draft lottery in place since 1995, where it underwent significant tweaks prior to the 2014-15 season to give less weight to a team finishing last in the standings. In the first phase of the lottery, a placeholder team won in what was the most complicated process in lottery history, and that resulted in a qualifying team that lost their playoff matchup winning the right to the first overall pick.

Each of the eight teams that failed to advance in the post-season have the exact same odds to win the right to select Lafreniere, but which teams have had luck on their side in the past and which ones are hoping to win the lottery for the very first time?

Odds to Win #1 Overall Pick in NHL Draft Lottery

Team Last Time Won Draft Lottery Times Won Draft Lottery Odds to Win Draft Lottery at DraftKings
Edmonton Oilers 2015 (Connor McDavid) 3 +675
Florida Panthers 2014 (Aaron Ekblad) 3 +675
Toronto Maple Leafs 2016 (Auston Matthews) 1 +675
Pittsburgh Penguins 2005 (Sidney Crosby) 1 +675
Winnipeg Jets 2001 (Ilya Kovalchuk) 1 +675
New York Rangers N/A N/A +675
Minnesota Wild N/A N/A +675
Nashville Predators N/A N/A +675

Odds taken August 10

Before the qualifying matchups took place, the Montreal Canadiens were the favorites to land the first overall pick because they were well down in the standings this year and they faced a heavily favored Penguins squad. The dream scenario of a French-Canadian superstar heading to La Belle Province was thwarted when Montreal upset Pittsburgh in four games.

Oilers Lottery Victory Would Send People Into a Tizzy

Of all of these eight squads, the one that you could potentially say least deserves to win would be the Edmonton Oilers. They picked first overall a whopping four times since 2010 (New Jersey Devils won 2011 lottery but only moved up to fourth during the old lottery format), selecting Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Connor McDavid.

Other fascinating destinations in the Lafreniere sweepstakes include the Penguins, where he’d be joining a team with superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They of course drafted Rimouski star Crosby in 2005, and 15 years later it would be apropos if they picked another Rimouski phenom in Lafreniere. Hockey crazed Toronto would also provide a market that could make the most of his marketability.

New York Rangers Present Great Opportunity

You have to figure commissioner Gary Bettman would be extremely excited if Lafreniere would wind up on the Rangers, who have never won the lottery before. He could go to an American market under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden with a team led by Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. Since there is no way to handicap where he might land with every team sporting the same odds, the big apple would provide a tremendous destination for the superstar in waiting, should you feel like taking a flier on someone to win the lottery.

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