Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sunday Afternoon Hockey

• The Avalanche are -178 moneyline favorites over the Maple Leafs on Sunday
• Toronto has dropped three straight, and rank dead last in goals against
• See my Avalanche vs Maple Leafs prediction and picks below, plus the latest odds for Sunday Afternoon Hockey

A pair of struggling teams meet on Sunday in Toronto, as the Colorado Avalanche (34-6-9, 14-4-5 away) face the Maple Leafs (24-18-9, 16-7-6 home). Colorado enters play losers of four of their last five games, while Toronto has dropped three straight.

Online sportsbooks expect the Maple Leafs woes to continue, pegging the Avs as sizeable road favorites per the latest NHL odds.

Puck drop is set for 1:30 pm ET / 11:30 am MT from Scotiabank Arena, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, with NHL Network and Altitude Sports providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Avalanche vs Maple Leafs prediction and picks, plus the latest odds for Sunday Afternoon Hockey.

Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Prediction and Picks

• Over 6.5 Goals (-115 at Bet365)

Colorado enters play as the favorite in the Stanley Cup odds, but you’d never know it by their recent play. The Avs have surrendered 22 goals in their last five games, a stretch that started with a 4-3 overtime loss to Toronto on home ice.

Toronto has won just once since that outing, losing four of five overall. They’ve yielded at least 6 goals on three separate occasions during that span, including on Friday against Vegas.

Anthony Stolarz returned from a two-month absence for that game and probably wished he was still on IR. The Maple Leafs’ number one netminder allowed 5 goals on 30 shots in his return, marking the ninth time in his last 10 starts he’s surrendered at least 3 goals.

Stolarz is expected to sit on Sunday in favor of Joseph Woll, but no matter who’s been in between the pipes for Toronto, opponents have been filling the net at will. No team has allowed more goals than the Maple Leafs this season, while Toronto also ranks in the bottom-five in scoring chances allowed at even strength.

COL vs TOR: 5-vs-5 Advanced Stats

That spells trouble against Colorado, who’ve scored 22 more goals than any other club. The Avalanche are top-three in expected goals for, as well as scoring chances and high danger opportunities.

The Avs get serious production from up and down their lineup, but Nathan MacKinnon is the star of the show. The Hart Trophy odds favorite leads the league in goals and points, registering 41 points in his last 24 games.

Colorado features three 20+ goal scorers on their roster, while eight players have scored at least 10 times, which makes them a nightmare to defend.

Mackenzie Blackwood vs Joseph Woll Stats

So why not just bet the Avs on the moneyline? Well, their recent play in their own end, plus the Maple Leafs offensive prowess, should help send this game soaring over the total.

Only Colorado has scored more often than Toronto this season, while the Maple Leafs have nearly as many double-digit goal scorers (six) as the Avs. Auston Matthews leads that group with 25 goals so far, while John Tavares is only one tally shy of his 16th 20-goal season.

Sure, it hurts that William Nylander is on IR, but projected Colorado starter Mackenzie Blackwood has surrendered 11 goals in his last two starts, posting an abysmal .765 save percentage.

I’ll take over 6.5 goals as my favorite Avalanche vs Maple Leafs pick, as high-scoring games are the norm for these two clubs. Five of Colorado’s last seven games have produced at least 7 goals, while Toronto outings have cleared 6.5 goals in six of the Maple Leafs last seven games.

Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Odds

Odds as of Jan. 24 at consensus sportsbooks. Check out SBD’s Bet365 promo code to bet on the NHL this weekend.

The best place to bet over 6.5 goals right now is Bet365, who are offering the line at -115 odds. Bet365 also has the most favorable odds on Colorado to cover the 1.5 goal puck line, as well as the Toronto moneyline. If you’re looking to bet the under head to BetMGM, whose -102 odds on 6.5 goals is the lowest price in market.