Blues vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions, and Starting Goalies

• The Blues are +190 moneyline underdogs tonight in a showdown with the first place Avalanche
• St. Louis is 6-1 straight up as a road underdog in their last seven instances
• See my favorite Blues vs Avalanche picks and predictions, plus the starting goalies for this Western Conference clash

The Avalanche are back on home ice tonight as big favorites in the NHL odds when they host the Blues. With the regular season winding down and just a handful of games remaining, the Avalanche have already punched their postseason ticket behind the MVP-caliber play of Nathan MacKinnon.

Meanwhile, the Blues enter Denver relying on Robert Thomas to help close the gap in the Western Conference wildcard race. Puckdrop is set for 9:30 pm ET at Ball Arena, in Denver, CO, with ESPN handling broadcast duties.

Keep reading for my favorite Blues vs Avalanche picks and predictions, plus the starting goalies for this Western Conference clash.

Blues vs Avalanche Picks

• St. Louis Blues Moneyline (+190 at DraftKings)

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I’m on St. Louis to win outright tonight, as they’ve been absolute road warriors in the role of underdogs away from home. The visitors are a staggering 6-1 when operating as the underdog over their last seven road games. They also boast a highly profitable 7-2 record as a dog over their last nine contests overall. Furthermore, the Blues have won five straight road games against opponents with a winning record.

Conversely, Ball Arena hasn’t provided much of a home-ice advantage lately. The Avalanche have gone ice-cold in their own building, posting a 1-5 record at home over their last six games, looking nothing like the top contender in the Stanley Cup odds.

Those struggles are amplified after a victory, as the Avalanche are just 1-7 at home following a win in their last eight attempts. At +190 odds, the situational trends point heavily toward the Blues pulling off the upset.

The Avalanche lean heavily on their high-octane offensive attack and possession metrics, while the Blues rely on a gritty, physical game to keep matchups within striking distance.

Blues vs Avalanche Stats

On paper, the Avalanche dominate the traditional counting statistics, but the underlying style metrics perfectly illustrate why the Blues are such a dangerous road underdog.

The most glaring mismatch is in the shot and goal departments. The Avalanche boast a massive advantage in generating offensive pressure, firing 33.64 shots per game compared to the Blues’ modest 25.29. This sheer volume allows the Avalanche to net a robust 3.76 goals per night. .

However, the Blues hold their own distinct advantages that make them a live dog. The Blues play a much heavier, more punishing brand of hockey. Averaging 22.33 hits per game compared to the Avalanche’s 17.05, the visitors try to slow the pace and disrupt the neutral zone through physicality. They also sacrifice the body significantly more, averaging 13.84 blocked shots per game.

Interestingly, despite the massive gap in overall 5-on-5 offensive production, the special teams battle is practically a dead heat on the man advantage. The Blues actually hold a fractional edge on the power play, converting at a 17.9% clip compared to the Avalanche’s 17.8%. If the Blues can manage the puck and stay out of the penalty box they could easily take down Colorado.

Blues vs Avalanche Predictions

• Valeri Nichushkin Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-161 at Bet365)
• Colton Parayko Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+117 at Bet365)

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Shifting over to the NHL props market, where Valeri Nichushkin is a big threat to exceed 1.5 shots on goal. The Avalanche forward is a perfect 3-0 versus this line in his last three games against the Blues, averaging a massive 5.67 shots per game in that span. Furthermore, Nichushkin has gone over this prop line in three of four home games recently, maintaining a solid 2.25 shots per game average in Denver.

Colton Parayko meanwhile, has exceeded 1.5 shots on goal in five of his last six games overall, good for an 83.3% success rate while averaging 2.33 shots per contest. He is also thriving in this exact game script; Parayko has gone over his 1.5 shots on goal prop line in three of four games as an underdog. With the Blues needing a victory and Parayko eating heavy minutes on the blue line, expect him to keep firing the puck from the point tonight.

Blues vs Avalanche Odds

Odds as of April 5. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on the Blues vs Avalanche matchup.

Blues vs Avalanche Starting Goalies

The battle in the crease features two netminders who have been pivotal to their respective teams’ success this season. Based on the current depth charts, the Blues will turn to Joel Hofer to keep their wildcard hopes alive, while the Avalanche will counter with the NHL’s statistical leader in several key goaltending categories, Scott Wedgewood.

Hofer vs Wedgewood Stats

Wedgewood has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He currently paces the entire NHL in Goals Against Average (2.13) and Save Percentage (.918). His elite consistency has translated directly to the win column, where his 28 victories rank tied for seventh league-wide. With only six regulation losses across 42 appearances, Wedgewood gives his squad a chance to win every time he steps on the ice.

At the other end of the rink, Joel Hofer frequently displays the ability to steal games single-handedly. While his 2.58 GAA and .909 save percentage trail Wedgewood’s league-leading marks, Hofer possesses an incredibly high ceiling. The netminder has recorded a staggering six shutouts this season, ranking second in the NHL. Hofer will face a daunting task against a high-volume offense, but his track record indicates he is capable of weathering the storm.