Blues vs Jets Prediction & Odds – How to Bet Pivotal Game 5
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Jets are -180 moneyline favorites over the Blues in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series
- Connor Hellebuyck has the second-worst save percentage among starting goalies in the postseason
- See the Blues vs Jets Game odds below, plus my prediction and how to bet the pivotal Game 5 matchup
Will the real Connor Hellebuyck please stand up. That’s what Jets fans are demanding prior to Game 5 tonight versus the visiting Blues. The best-of-sever series is tied at 2 in the NHL playoff bracket, but online sportsbooks are expecting Hellebuyck and Winnipeg to bounce back after dropping two straight.
Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET at the Canada Life Center, in Winnipeg, MB, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Blues vs Jets Prediction
My prediction is that St. Louis’ offense stalls in Game 5. Simply put, their current level of scoring is not sustainable. The Blues scored five times in Game 4, but generated only 2.4 expected goals. The game before, they lit the lamp seven times, but produced just 2.68 expected goals.
For the series, they’ve scored 16 times, the most of any team that’s only played four games. Those 16 goals have come on just 91 shots, which is the fewest shots on goal of any playoff team outside of Tampa Bay.
They boast a 17.6% shooting percentage, after scoring on only 11% of their attempts in the regular season. What’s even more surprising is that the success is coming against Hellebuyck.
The Jets netminder is the favorite to win the Vezina, and a primary reason Winnipeg is a serious Stanley Cup odds contender. However, this series he’s looked like a mere mortal.
Binnington vs Hellebuyck Playoff Stats
Hellebuyck’s save percentage through four games sits at .817, the second worst among any playoff goaltender. His goals against average isn’t much better, sitting at 4.24. Contrast that to the regular season, when he led the league with a 2.01 GAA, and was second with a .925 save percentage.
He’s too good to underperform for this long. The advanced stats agree, as St. Louis has generated the fewest expected goals in the postseason, but rank number one in shooting percentage. Expect some positive regression in Hellebuyck and Winnipeg’s favor tonight.
SPORTSBOOK
St Louis Blues vs Winnipeg Jets Odds
The game odds support that, as the Jets are -180 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 goals at +154 odds on the puck line. St. Louis comes back as a +150 underdog, while the game total sits at 5.5.
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Per the NHL public betting trends, the Blues are 3-1 on the puck line in the series, while the over has hit in three of four contests. The majority of bettors are expecting another high-scoring game tonight, as 85% of the total tickets are backing over 5.5 goals. I disagree with that sentiment, as I’m banking on Hellebuyck to revert back to his All-World form.
How to Bet Blues vs Jets Game 5
- St. Louis Blues Under 2.5 Goals (-140)
Another reason why I’m fading the Blues’ offense, is the fact that Winnipeg is dominating puck possession. The Jets hold a significant advantage in Corsi For percentage, and have done an excellent job at limiting high-danger scoring chances.
Winnipeg was the number one team in goals against this season, and were exceptionally tough to score on at home. The Jets averaged 1.95 goals against per contest in their own barn, posting a .933 save percentage. The Winnipeg faithful are going to be incredibly loud tonight, and I expect the whole team to rise up and hold St. Louis below 2.5 goals.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
