Bruins vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction: Rusty Tampa Falls to Boston

The final series of round two of the 2018 NHL playoffs gets underway tomorrow afternoon (3:00 PM ET, April 28) with the East’s top two teams meeting in central Florida. The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Boston Bruins to Amalie Arena for Game 1 of the best-of-seven.

Despite struggling against the Bruins in the regular season (1-3), the more rested Lightning opened as significant -143 home favorites for Game 1, with the goal total of 6.0 shaded toward the under.

Below, learn the moneyline, puckline, and O/U, plus the key stats, significant injury news, and our final score prediction.

Straight-up playoff prediction record: 8-3 (as of Apr. 25; result here pending)
Moneyline playoff prediction profits (based on $100 wagers): +$278.00

Opening Odds

The teams took very different paths to round two. The Bruins were pushed to the limit by Toronto. After taking a 3-1 lead, they let their first two chances to close the series slip away before pulling off an epic third-period comeback in Game 7.

David Pastrnak led the team with 13 points in seven games, including a six-point night in Game 2. Jake Debrusk is the hottest Bruin, with three goals in his last two games and five, total, in round one (tied for the team lead with Pastrnak).

Pekka Rinne started all seven games against Toronto, posting a mediocre .909 SV% and 2.60 GAA.

Jake Debrusk is the hottest Bruin, with three goals in his last two games and five, total, in round one.

Tampa had a much easier time in round one, bouncing New Jersey in five games. Nikita Kucherov picked up where he left off in the regular season, leading Tampa with five goals and 10 points in five games. No other Lightning player had more than six points, though Alex Killorn did notch four genos.

Andrei Vasilevskiy had a stellar .941 SV% in the series and a 2.01 GAA.

Key Injuries & Absences

Not much to see here. Injuries shouldn’t have an impact in Game 1.

Regular Season Team Stats

Betting Results & Trends*

*All statistics date back to regular season.

Score Prediction

The Bruins had a chance to win the Atlantic division title on the last day of the regular season, but lost at home to the Panthers. Their penalty was a much tougher first-round series against Toronto, and the B’s will enter round two the more fatigued and banged-up team because of it.

When Tampa [which has had seven days off] came back from its bye week in the regular season, they [lost two straight].

Over the course of the series, that could be the difference. However, they were gifted two days of rest ahead of Game 1, while Tampa has been off for an unseemly seven days. When Tampa came back from its bye week in the regular season, they looked out of sorts and promptly took bad losses to the Knights (4-1, home) and Wild (5-2, away) before righting the ship.

With the success Boston had against Tampa in the regular season and the potential for the Lightning to have a little ring-rust on them, the Bruins at +129 are better value than Tampa at a short -143, especially considering Boston’s stronger puck-possession and shot metrics.