Bruins vs Flyers Prediction, Picks, Lineups & Odds (April 5)

• Boston is 11-3 after a loss and 4-1 as an underdog, yet the Bruins vs Flyers odds have them as +120 road dogs
• Philadelphia is 5-12 at home over its last 17 and 2-9 against teams with winning records at Xfinity Mobile Arena
• See my Bruins vs Flyers prediction, picks, lineups and odds for Sunday afternoon

Boston (40-23-12) holds a wild card spot in the NHL playoff bracket and has no trouble winning as an underdog. Philadelphia (37-27-12) needs the points more but hasn’t been able to take care of business at home, going 5-12 over its last 17 in its own building.

The Flyers are coming off a 4-2 loss to the Islanders on Friday. Puck drop is at 3:30 pm ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena. My Bruins vs Flyers prediction and picks are below.

Bruins vs Flyers Prediction

• Winner bet: Bruins Moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

• Total bet: Over 5.5 Goals (-130 at Fanatics)

Two Bruins vs Flyers predictions for Sunday. Boston on the moneyline and the over.

The Bruins are 11-3 after a loss over their last 14 games and 4-1 as an underdog in their last five. Philadelphia is 2-9 against teams with winning records at home over its last 11 and just 3-7 as a favorite in its last 10. Plus money on a team with Boston’s bounce-back track record is a gift.

The over has cashed in 12 of Boston’s last 17 road games and 11 of their last 13 against top-10 scoring defenses on the road. Our projection model forecasts 5.9 combined goals, giving the over a comfortable cushion above the 5.5 line.

Bruins vs Flyers Key Stats

Boston scores 3.30 goals per game with a 23.4% power play. Philly’s power play is at 15.1%, and their .883 team save percentage is one of the worst in the East. The Bruins also dominate the faceoff circle at 53.0% compared to Philly’s 49.0%, which helps them control possession and generate offensive zone time.

Bruins vs Flyers Picks

I’ve got two shot volume plays backed by our projection model for my Bruins vs Flyers picks.

• Elias Lindholm Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115 at Bet365)

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Lindholm averages 1.7 shots per game on the season, but our model projects him for 2.7 tonight, a 58.8% increase over his baseline. He centers Boston’s third line and gets second-unit power play time. Even money on a player projected that far above the line is strong value.

• Christian Dvorak Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-137 at Caesars)

Dvorak averages 1.9 shots per game and our projections have him at 2.2 tonight. He skates on Philly’s second line with Konecny and Martone, and he cleared this line in five straight road games heading into the weekend. With the Flyers needing offense to stay in the wild card hunt, Dvorak should be active.

Bruins vs Flyers Projected Lineups

Boston Bruins Projected Lines

Forwards:

Marat Khusnutdinov – Fraser Minten – David Pastrnak
Casey Mittelstadt – Pavel Zacha – Viktor Arvidsson
Lukas Reichel – Elias Lindholm – Morgan Geekie
Tanner Jeannot – Sean Kuraly – Mark Kastelic

Defense:

Jonathan Aspirot – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Henri Jokiharju
Nikita Zadorov – Andrew Peeke

Expected Starter: Jeremy Swayman (30-17-4, 2.70 GAA, .908 SV%)

Philadelphia Flyers Projected Lines

Forwards:

Tyson Foerster – Trevor Zegras – Owen Tippett
Travis Konecny – Christian Dvorak – Porter Martone
Alex Bump – Noah Cates – Matvei Michkov
Sean Couturier – Luke Glendening – Garnet Hathaway

Defense:

Travis Sanheim – Rasmus Ristolainen
Cam York – Jamie Drysdale
Nick Seeler – Emil Andrae

Expected Starter: Dan Vladar (25-13-7, 2.47 GAA, .905 SV%)

Boston is running rookie Fraser Minten as the top-line center with Pastrnak on his wing, giving their first unit a nice blend of speed and finishing ability. Philly leans on its top six, with Zegras centering the first line and Dvorak running the second alongside Konecny and Martone.

Bruins vs Flyers Odds

The interactive widget above will update automatically as the Bruins vs Flyers odds move throughout the day.

Philadelphia is -140 at bet365 while Boston is +120 at DraftKings. The puck line has Philly -1.5 at +185 (bet365) and Boston +1.5 at -200 (DraftKings). The total is split across books: Fanatics has the over 5.5 at -130, while DraftKings is offering the under 6 at -110. Shopping that half-goal difference matters if you’re playing the total.

Swayman (.908 SV%) gets the nod for Boston while Vladar (.905 SV%) goes for Philly. The gap in team save percentage (.898 to .883) tells the bigger story. The full Sunday NHL odds board is worth a look if you’re building a multi-game card.