Bruins vs Panthers Prediction, Picks & Starting Goalies for Wednesday

• The Panthers are -145 moneyline favorites over the Bruins on Wednesday
• Boston has exceeded its expected goals for total by 39% over the last eight games
• See my Bruins vs Panthers predictions, picks and starting goalies for Wednesday, below

It’s hard to believe, but with just 27 games remaining, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are 9 points out of a playoff spot. They’ll look to narrow that gap tonight, as they take on a Boston Bruins squad currently occupying the East’s last postseason berth.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Panthers in the latest NHL odds, pegging them as -145 moneyline favorites. That’s a price I’m willing to pay, as Boston has been significantly overachieving at a rate that’s not sustainable. 

Puck drop for this Eastern Conference clash is set for 7pm ET inside Florida’s Amerant Bank Arena, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Bruins vs Panthers prediction and picks, along with the starting goalies for Wednesday.

Bruins vs Panthers Prediction and Picks

• Florida Panthers Moneyline (-145 at BetMGM)

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Despite key injuries, Florida’s roster is still littered with enough talent to make them a Stanley Cup odds contender. Captain Aleksander Barkov is out for the year, while star defenseman Seth Jones is on IR. Second leading scorer, and former Bruins star Brad Marchand has been ruled out tonight, but they seem to have dodged a bullet with Sam Bennett, who’s good to go.

Bennett, leading scorer Sam Reinhart and Carter Veraeghe are three of the most dangerous offensive players in the league, and the team has been given a serious boost over the last two weeks by Matthew Tkachuk’s return. The team has the second-highest Corsi For percentage since January 17th, meaning they are dominating puck possession and scoring chances.

Positive results have been slow to materialize, as evident by their 3-5 record during that stretch, but positive regression is coming their way, and I bet it starts tonight on home ice.

BOS vs FLA: Advanced Stats Since Jan. 17

Speaking of regression, that’s exactly what’s about to smack Boston in the face. The team has outperformed their expected goals total by 39% over the last eight games, posting a ridiculous shooting percentage of almost 16%. For context, that’s a full 3% higher than their season-long mark, and over 2% higher than the best shooting percentage in the league so far.

There’s no shortage of snipers on the Bruins, with Morgan Geekie and David Patranak posting 32 and 22 goals respectively, but the team simply can’t continue converting at such an efficient rate.

Defensively, they’ve sprung multiple leaks and the goaltending has been suspect. They blew a 5-1 lead to Tampa Bay in the Stadium Series on Sunday, and have yielded 36 more high-danger scoring chances than the Panthers since January 17th, despite playing fewer games.

Another issue plaguing Boston is its discipline. They lead the league in penalty minutes this season, and that’s not a recipe for success against a team as potent offensively as Florida.

Bruins vs Panthers Starting Goalies

I expect starting goalie Jeremy Swayman to be under siege in the Bruins net tonight, especially given the Panthers improved play recently and Boston’s propensity for taking penalties.

Swayman is getting all sorts of praise for his fisticuffs with Andrei Vasilevskiy last time out, but the fight is overshadowing some pretty poor play. The Team USA Olympian has coughed up five or more goals in three of his past nine starts, and ranks 35th this season in GAA and 23rd in save percentage.

Jeremy Swayman vs Sergei Bobrovsky Stats

Sergei Bobrovsky will man the Panthers’ net again tonight, and although his numbers look underwhelming this season, Florida is playing much better defense in front of him.

Even without Jones on the blueline, the Panthers posted the third-best expected goals per 60 minutes mark in January.

Their strong recent play in their own end and offensively, coupled with the Bruins crashing back down to earth make the Panthers the preferred choice on the moneyline tonight. They’ve won seven of their past 10 meetings with the Bruins, and I expect another victory over them tonight.