Bruins vs Sabres Prediction, Prop Picks, Odds & Projected Lineups (Mar. 25)
By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Bruins vs Sabres odds have Buffalo as a -205 home favorite on Wednesday night
- Boston sends Joonas Korpisalo to the crease with a 4.57 GAA in March
- See my Bruins vs Sabres prediction, prop picks, odds and projected lineups below
The Buffalo Sabres (44-20-7) are 33-6-3 since Dec. 9 and on the verge of ending a 14-season drought in the NHL Playoff Bracket. They open a four-game homestand Wednesday against a Boston Bruins (39-24-8) team whose five-game point streak was snapped with a 4-2 loss to the Leafs on Tuesday.
The goaltending mismatch is the headline. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has a 2.19 GAA and .925 save percentage since Jan. 19. Joonas Korpisalo is 0-1-2 with a 4.57 GAA this month.
Puck drop is set for 7:30 pm ET from KeyBank Center. My Bruins vs Sabres prediction, prop picks and odds breakdown are below.
Bruins vs Sabres Prediction
- Sabres ML (-205 at DraftKings)
The juice is heavy, but Buffalo has earned it. The Sabres have won 12 of their last 14 games and are 5-1 at home over their last six. They’re also 4-0 in their last 4 against Atlantic Division opponents and 10-2 as a favorite over their last 12.
Boston is 2-9 on the road over their last 11 and 5-15 in their last 20 road games against teams with a home winning percentage above .600. They’re also running Korpisalo in net, who is 0-1-2 with a 4.57 GAA this month.
Bruins vs Sabres Key Stats
Buffalo scores more, allows less, and stops pucks at a higher rate. Boston’s power play is the one edge at 23.7%, but the Sabres’ penalty kill ranks sixth at 81.9%.
The Bruins also allow 30.08 shots against per game, the most in the NHL. My Bruins vs Sabres prediction is on Buffalo at home.
Bruins vs Sabres Prop Picks
Three props for my Bruins vs Sabres picks tonight.
- Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105 at DraftKings)
Thompson has gone over 3.5 shots in 6 of 6 games against the Bruins, averaging a massive 6.17 per game in that stretch. Near even money on a 100% hit rate against a specific opponent is the best prop on the board Wednesday.
- Charlie McAvoy Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-152 at Caesars)
McAvoy has cleared 1.5 shots in 11 of his last 13 games (85%) and in 6 of 6 following a Bruins loss, averaging 2.67 per game in those bounce-back spots.
The Boston defenseman is on a 10-game road point streak with four goals and 10 assists.
- David Pastrnak Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135 at BetMGM)
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Pastrnak is on a 10-game point streak with 15 points, but his shot volume drops against quality competition. He’s gone under 3.5 shots in 5 straight against opponents with a winning record, averaging just 1.8 per game.
uffalo’s .901 save percentage ranks third in the NHL, so Pasta should be a bit more selective with his shot volume. That rounds out my Bruins vs Sabres prop picks.
Bruins vs Sabres Odds
Odds as of Mar. 25. New bettors can use the DraftKings promo code to wager on tonight’s Bruins vs Sabres odds.
Buffalo’s -205 moneyline on DraftKings translates to roughly a 67% implied win probability. The best price on Boston as underdogs is +178 at Caesars, which translates to a 36% implied win probability.
The home team has won all four of the last four meetings at KeyBank Center, though Boston owns the all-time series at 38-14 over the last 52 meetings and 21-7 in the last 28 in Buffalo.
Bruins vs Sabres Projected Lineups
Buffalo Sabres Projected Lines
Forwards:
Peyton Krebs – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch
Jason Zucker – Ryan McLeod – Jack Quinn
Noah Ostlund – Josh Norris – Josh Doan
Zach Benson – Sam Carrick – Beck Malenstyn
Defense:
Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin
Owen Power – Bowen Byram
Logan Stanley – Zach Metsa
Goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Luukkonen is 7-2-0 with a 2.19 GAA and .925 save percentage since Jan. 19. He stopped 22 shots in Buffalo’s 4-1 win over Boston on Dec. 27. Samuelsson is questionable with an illness.
Alex Tuch has seven goals and four assists in his last 11, while Dahlin has two goals and three assists in his last three.
Boston Bruins Projected Lines
Forwards:
Marat Khusnutdinov – Fraser Minten – David Pastrnak
Casey Mittelstadt – Pavel Zacha – Viktor Arvidsson
Lukas Reichel – Elias Lindholm – Morgan Geekie
Tanner Jeannot – Sean Kuraly – Mark Kastelic
Defense:
Jonathan Aspirot – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Mason Lohrei
Nikita Zadorov – Henri Jokiharju
Goalie: Joonas Korpisalo
Jeremy Swayman made his fourth straight start Tuesday but is expected to sit Wednesday. Pastrnak has 18 goals and 30 assists in 44 career games against Buffalo. Boston enters with no injuries.
Buffalo is without Jordan Greenway (abdomen), Justin Danforth (lower body), Conor Timmins (leg), Jiri Kulich (ear, out for season), and Tanner Pearson (undisclosed). Samuelsson (illness) is questionable.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.