Capitals vs Penguins Prediction (Game 3): Can Washington Overcome Pittsburgh’s Home Dominance?

After letting a two-goal third-period lead slip away in Game 1, Washington rebounded with a decisive 4-1 win in Game 2 to even their best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal with the Penguins. Tonight, the series shifts to PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for Game 3 (4:30 PM ET) with the Capitals hoping to take back home-ice advantage in what is now a best of five.

Read on for the opening odds, statistical comparison, key injury updates, and final score prediction.

Straight-up playoff prediction record: 10-4.
Moneyline playoff prediction profits (based on $100 wagers): +$425.00

Opening Odds

The Penguins came out of Game 2 griping about their goal that never was, a would-be Patric Hornqvist garbage tally that probably went over the line but didn’t have the video evidence to back it up.

If their being honest with themselves, however, a debatable video review is not what lost them the game.

[A] debatable video review is not what lost [Pittsburgh Game 2 of the series].

They came out sluggish, found themselves down 3-0 just two minutes into the second, and couldn’t claw their way back like in Game 1. While they wound up outshooting Washington 33-32, that’s only because the Caps were sitting on the lead. Washington dominated the first, building up a two-goal cushion while outshooting the Pens 20-10 in the frame.

From there, they played solid defense-first hockey, giving up a decent number of shots, but few quality chances.

Key Injuries & Absences

Malkin, Pittsburgh’s leading scorer in the regular season (42 G, 98 PTS), is a game-time decision due to the lower-body injury he suffered in Game 5 against Philadelphia. His presence or absence may prove the difference maker as he gives Pittsburgh two bona fide first lines. Their center depth has been, arguably, the biggest reason they’ve won two straight Stanley Cups.

Hagelin (10 G, 31 PTS) remains sidelined with the facial injury he suffered in Game 6 against the Flyers, while Dumoulin was the victim of a (mildly) controversial hit by Washington’s Tom Wilson in Game 2.

Burakovsky hasn’t played since Game 2 against Columbus, and Washington has, surprisingly, been better without him, going 5-1 since.

Regular Season Team Stats

Betting Results & Trends*

*Statistics in this table include playoffs but date back to regular season.

Score Prediction

Caveat! The score prediction, above, is dependent on Malkin playing. This game is a firm stay-away until his status becomes clear, which may mean waiting until almost puck-drop to place a bet.

If the big Russian is in the lineup, Barry Trotz is going to have a difficult time getting one of his top two lines out against Malkin and Crosby. One of the big advantages of home-ice is having last change, so Mike Sullivan will be able to deploy either of his future Hall-of-Famers anytime the Lars Eller or Jay Beagle lines take the ice for the Caps.

Avoiding those matchups becomes easier for Trotz if there’s only one line to worry about.

One of the big advantages of home-ice is having last change, so Mike Sullivan will be able to deploy either [Crosby or Malkin] anytime the Lars Eller or Jay Beagle lines take the ice.

Matt Murray’s play in the Pittsburgh net continues to be a huge concern, but he was significantly better at home this season than on the road (.917 vs .896 SV%), much like Pittsburgh’s overall record. Add in the litany of playoff experience the 23-year-old already has and Pittsburgh is the pick.