Game 4 Stars vs Oilers Prediction, Expert Pick & Best Odds (May. 27)

• The Oilers are -160 moneyline favorites over the Stars in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final tonight
• Stuart Skinner has posted three shutouts in his last five starts, including a 33-save gem in Game 3
• See my Game 4 Stars vs Oilers prediction and expert pick below, plus the best odds

The Edmonton Oilers look to push the Dallas Stars to the brink of elimination in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final. After a dominant 6-1 victory on Sunday, Edmonton can take a commanding 3-1 series lead with another home win.

Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Game 4 Stars vs Oilers Prediction

My prediction is that we’ll see a defensive battle tonight, with both teams tightening up in this crucial Game 4. While the scoreboard showed a blowout in Game 3, the underlying numbers tell a different story that points to the under.

Stuart Skinner has been absolutely locked in since returning to the crease. The Oilers’ netminder has posted a remarkable .955 save percentage and 1.18 goals-against average over his last five games, including three shutouts. His 33-save performance in Game 3 was perhaps his best of the playoffs, stopping all but one shot despite Dallas generating 13 high-danger chances.

Meanwhile, the Stars’ offensive struggles have been glaring. Dallas is shooting just 4.23% this postseason, with their high-danger shooting percentage sitting at a paltry 6.25%. Despite controlling play at 5-on-5 with a 54.65% expected goals share, they’ve managed only three even-strength goals through three games.

DAL vs EDM Advanced Stats (Playoffs)

The road has been particularly unkind to Dallas, who are just 2-5 away from home these playoffs. Most concerning? They haven’t scored first in any of their seven road games, putting constant pressure on Jake Oettinger to be perfect.

Edmonton’s defensive structure has improved dramatically, allowing just 2.93 goals per game in the playoffs (4th best). While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl grab headlines, the Oilers’ commitment to team defense has been the real story of their playoff run.

History suggests teams play tighter in Game 4 when leading 2-1. The team that goes up 3-1 wins the series 91% of the time, making this a must-win for Dallas. Expect both teams to prioritize defensive structure over offensive creativity.

Edmonton’s 14.75% shooting percentage and 95.77% save percentage indicate they’re riding an unsustainable hot streak. These numbers typically regress, especially in high-pressure situations where teams focus on limiting quality chances.

Stars vs Oilers Expert Pick

• Under 6.5 Total Goals (-125 at Bet99, -130 at Caesars)

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Despite the 6-1 final in Game 3, Dallas actually out-chanced Edmonton in high-danger opportunities. The Stars’ inability to finish combined with Skinner’s elite goaltending created a lopsided score that doesn’t reflect the actual game flow.

Jake Oettinger has allowed 12 goals in three games this series, struggling with a save percentage below .900 in each contest. Despite maintaining a +4.4 goals saved above expected for the playoffs, he’ll need to find his form quickly. The 25-year-old Skinner, meanwhile, has completely turned his playoff around, going 4-1 with three shutouts in his last five starts.

Dallas boasts the third-best penalty kill in the playoffs at 83.3%, while Edmonton’s vaunted power play has been inconsistent, failing to score in Game 3 despite three opportunities. With both teams likely to play more conservatively, special teams goals should be at a premium.

The Stars are being outplayed at the one thing they do well – finishing. Their process is sound, but when you’re shooting 4.23% against a goalie with a .955 save percentage, goals become incredibly difficult to come by.

Look for a tight-checking affair as both teams understand the magnitude of Game 4. The under has excellent value at -125.

Stars vs Oilers Best Odds

For the best Stars vs Oilers odds, Edmonton’s moneyline sits at -155 at BetMGM. The Oilers are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at great +156 odds (FanDuel), while Dallas gets the 1.5 goals. Head to Caesars for the top price on the Stars’ puck line.

The total sits at 6 or 6.5, depending on the book. However, you can find the latter in most sportsbooks’ alternate total sections. FanDuel offers plus money on over 6.5 at +106, with the best under 6.5 odds are found at Bet99 (-125).

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

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LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD2DYW

CODE: SBD2DYW

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of May 27th at NHL betting apps. Edmonton residents should grab a Bet99 promo code to place a wager.

According to NHL public betting trends, the majority of bettors are expecting another high-scoring affair, but the smart money should be on the under given the game’s importance and recent goaltending performances.