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Game 5 Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Odds, Predictions & Starting Goalies (May. 1)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Updated May 1, 2024 · 1:03 PM PDT

Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston celebrates his overtime goal against the Vegas Golden Knights
Apr 27, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) celebrates his overtime goal against the Vegas Golden Knights in game three of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
  • We’ve made our Stars vs Golden Knights prediction for Game 5
  • The Wednesday NHL odds favor Dallas to take a 3-2 series lead
  • Read below for Game 5 Golden Knights vs Stars odds, predictions and starting goalies

The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars face off in Game 5 of their first-round Western Conference playoff series on Wednesday, May 1 at 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. The series is tied 2-2 after the Stars won both games in Las Vegas.

The Stars are favored at -160 on the moneyline, while the Golden Knights are +135 underdogs. The over/under is set at 5.5 goals.

What’s the best bet for Game 5 of this series? Here’s our Stars vs Golden Knights prediction, plus a breakdown of the goalie matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Odds

Team Puck Line Moneyline Total
Golden Knights +1.5 (-190) +135 Over 5.5 (-125)
Stars -1.5 (+155) -160 Under 5.5 (+105)

In the Game 5 Knights vs Stars odds, Dallas is the -160 moneyline favorite, giving them 61.5% implied win probability.

 

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Stars Showing Resiliency

After losing the first two games at home, the Stars looked primed for an early playoff exit. But they bounced back with two straight wins in Vegas to even the series. In Game 3, Dallas prevailed 3-2 in overtime on a goal by Wyatt Johnston. The Stars followed that up with a 4-2 victory in Game 4 behind 32 saves from goaltender Jake Oettinger.

YouTube video

The Golden Knights won Games 1 and 2 in Dallas by scores of 4-3 and 3-1. However, they were unable to hold serve at home, losing 3-2 in OT and 4-2 in regulation. In Game 4, Jack Eichel and Michael Amadio scored for Vegas, but it wasn’t enough as the Stars rallied from 1-0 and 2-1 deficits.

Dallas’ top scorers in the regular season were Jason Robertson (46 goals, 63 assists), Roope Hintz (37 goals, 38 assists), and Joe Pavelski (28 goals, 49 assists). However, in the playoffs, Wyatt Johnston (2 goals) and Ty Dellandrea (1 goal, 1 assist) have stepped up with key goals. Veterans Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin each have 2 assists.

Starting Goalies

For Game 5, the Golden Knights are making a switch in net, going with Adin Hill over Logan Thompson. Hill played well in limited action this season, going 16-7-1 with a 2.50 GAA and .915 save percentage.

Thompson started the first four games, going 2-2 with a 2.35 GAA and .921 save percentage. Although Thompson has played well, the goalie change could provide a spark for Vegas. Hill was instrumental in Vegas’ 2023 Cup run, posting a .932 save percentage in 14 starts.

The Stars will stick with Jake Oettinger, who is also 2-2 in the series with a 2.38 GAA and .907 save percentage. During the regular season, Oettinger went 35-14-4 with a 2.72 GAA and .905 save percentage. While Oettinger hasn’t been at his best, he’s made timely saves when needed.

Betting Trends + Injuries

Interestingly, the road team has won all four games in this series so far. The Stars were 2-1-1 against the Golden Knights in the regular season. With the series shifting back to Dallas, the Stars will look to finally defend home ice, while the Golden Knights aim to continue their road success.

On the injury front, the Stars are mostly healthy, with depth forwards Radek Faksa (lower body) and Mason Marchment (undisclosed) both listed as questionable for Game 5.

For the Golden Knights, defenseman Nicolas Hague is doubtful with a lower-body injury. Forward Anthony Mantha was a healthy scratch last game but could draw back in for Game 5.

Game 5 Golden Knights vs Stars Prediction

This has been an evenly matched series, with neither team able to defend home ice so far. However, that could change in Game 5. The Stars have the momentum in the series and are finding their game offensively, scoring seven times in the past two games.

Dallas is also playing stingy defense, allowing just four goals in the last two games. Their penalty kill is also operating at 82% and stymying the VGK power play (0/4 since Game 1). A Vegas upset likely hinges on the play of goalie Hill, who is 2-3-0 against Dallas in his career with a .916 save percentage.

We’re backing a Dallas team with far superior possession metrics in this series (63.95 xGF% vs. 36.05 xGF%). Pete DeBoer’s team was 26-13-4 at American Airlines Center during the regular season, and we expect them to deliver their first playoff home win of 2024 on Wednesday.

Game 5 Pick:

 

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