Golden Knights vs Canadiens Odds, Best Bet and How to Bet Game 4 – Valuing Home Underdogs
By Robert Duff in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Vegas Golden Knights are -182 road favorites to beat the Montreal Canadiens in Game 4 of their Stanley Cup semifinal series on Sunday, June 20
- Montreal leads the best-of-seven series 2-1
- Read below for analysis, odds, and a betting predictionÂ
Like the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Winnipeg Jets before them, the Vegas Golden Knights were heavily-favored to have their way with the Montreal Canadiens. Yet again, it hasn’t turned out that way.
Opportunistic Montreal leads this Stanley Cup semifinal series against Vegas 2-1 following a shocking Game 3 triumph on Friday. Still, that hasn’t impressed the oddsmakers much.
Despite suffering successive losses to the Habs, the Golden Knights are the -182 betting choice to beat the Canadiens in Game 4. Montreal is 4-0 straight up in its past four home playoff games. The Habs were home underdogs in two of those games.
 Golden Knights vs Canadiens Odds – Game 4
| Player | Moneyline | Spread at DraftKings | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | -182 | -1.5 (+150) | O 5.0 (-141) |
| Montreal Canadiens | +155 | +1.5 (-182) | U 5.0 (+117) |
Odds as of June 19th.
Puck drop for Game 4 is set for 8pm ET Sunday at the Bell Centre. NBCSN is carrying the broadcast.
Fleury’s McSorley Moment
Vegas was 1:55 away from a Game 3 victory when a puck handling gaffe by Golden Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury left Montreal’s Josh Anderson with an empty-net tap in goal. Anderson scored in overtme to give the Canadiens a 3-2 victory.
The entire episode was eerily reminiscent of 1993, the last time Montreal won the Cup. That year, the Los Angeles Kings were 1:45 away from a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup final when LA defenseman Marty McSorley was penalized for using an illegal stick. Eric Desjardins scored from Montreal on the ensuing power play and again in overtime for a 3-2 victory.
Good on Fleury celebrating his assist. pic.twitter.com/zk6UUVWHyR
— Andrew Berkshire (@AndrewBerkshire) June 19, 2021
Is it wise to make betting decisions based on omens? Probably not. But call it luck, call it the bounces, it certainly is continuing to go in Montreal’s favor.
The John Tavares injury in Game 1 of the first round. The Mark Schiefele suspension in Game 1 of the second round. Now the Fleury flub.
Canadiens vs Golden Knights Series Odds
| Team | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | +130 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | -155 |
Forward Halt
If you’re the type who’d rather make their wagering decisions from more of an analytical basis, the Canadiens have that going for them, too. Montreal is doing to the Vegas forwards what the Golden Knights did to the Colorado forwards in Round 2. The Habs are absolutely silencing them.
Alex Pietrangelo stays HOT! 🔥#VegasBorn back on top early in the third. #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/q8SEI7ViEY
— NBC Sports Hockey (@NBCSportsHockey) June 19, 2021
The Golden Knights have six of their eight goals in the series from defensemen. Rearguard Alex Pietrangelo has more goals against Montreal (three) than the entire Vegas forward group (two). Pietrangelo has 4-4-8 totals in the past seven games.
Injury Update
It appears that the Canadiens will be without head coach Dominque Ducharme for 14 days due a positive COVID-19 test. He missed Game 3 because of it. The NHL confirmed Saturday that there have been no other positive tests among the two teams.
Hearing that #habs interim head coach Dominique Ducharme will need to isolate for 14 days before he's eligible to rejoin the team following his positive COVID-19 result.
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) June 19, 2021
Montreal is also without forwards Jake Evans (concussion) and Tomas Tatar (undisclosed). Both are listed as questionable.
Vegas first-line center Chandler Stephenson (undisclosed) is also listed as questionable for Game 4.
Trendspotting
Montreal is 6-1 both SU and against the spread in the last seven games against Vegas. Overall, the Habs are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS over the past 10 games.
Former Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty hasn’t scored in the series. Montreal forward Cole Caufield leads all rookies in playoff scoring with seven points.
The Montreal Canadiens are undefeated in these playoffs when they score two goals in a game.Think about that. #GoHabsGo
— The Original Burnsie (@burnsieoriginal) June 19, 2021
Montreal has successfully killed off 25 straight penalties and lead the playoffs with a 92% kill rate. The Canadiens rated 22nd in the NHL on the PK during the regular season. Vegas is 0-for-10 on the power play in this series.
The Canadiens also lost head coach Claude Julien during last year’s playoffs when he was hospitalized with chest pains.
Vegas has trailed in all three playoff rounds. The Golden Knights were down 1-0 to the Minnesota Wild and 2-0 to the Avalanche.
If the #VegasBorn #GoldenKnights could score on a PP, Fleury's incident wouldn't have mattered at all. pic.twitter.com/p1WT8VLA5R
— x-Victory Flamingo🦩 (@VGKFlamingo) June 19, 2021
Canadiens goalie Carey Price stopped 29 of 30 shots over the first two periods of Game 4. He owns a .932 save percentage in the playoffs.
Game 3 marked the first time in the 2021 playoffs that the Canadiens won after surrendering the first goal of the game. Teams that take a 2-1 lead in the Stanley Cup semifinal round own a .760 (57-18) rate of winning the series.
Pick: Montreal Canadiens (+155)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
