By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
The New York Islanders (35-21-5, 18-11-3 away) head west riding a five-game winning streak that has them firmly in third place in the Metropolitan Division. They’ll face the Anaheim Ducks (33-24-3, 20-9-1 home), who are licking their wounds after a 5-1 beatdown at the hands of Colorado on Tuesday night.
Anaheim sits second in the Pacific Division with 69 points, one behind Vegas, but this is a tough spot. The Ducks are on the back half of a back-to-back and will turn to backup Ville Husso, who hasn’t started since January 26.
Puck drop is set for 10 pm ET on ESPN+. Here are my Islanders vs Ducks prediction, props, odds and projected lineups.
My Islanders vs Ducks prediction is on New York to win outright. The Islanders have won seven of the last nine meetings in this series, including a 5-2 victory at UBS Arena back in December. And while Anaheim’s 20-9-1 home record is impressive, several situational factors tilt this one toward the visitors.
The Ducks are 1-5 in their last six games in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation, and 1-5 in their last six against Eastern Conference opponents. That 5-1 loss to Colorado wasn’t just a blip on the scoreboard — Quenneville called out his team for falling behind early, saying “playing from behind is not traditionally winning hockey.”
A quick look at the 5-on-5 numbers over the last 10 games shows Anaheim actually controls possession slightly better (50.50% CF% vs 49.21%). But the Ducks are only scoring on 8.51% of their shots at even strength compared to the Islanders’ 11.27%, and their save percentage sits nearly two full points lower.
That finishing gap matters even more tonight with Husso in net. He hasn’t played in over five weeks and allowed five goals on 37 shots in his last outing against the Islanders back in December. Rittich, meanwhile, has a career 4-1 record against Anaheim with a .934 save percentage. I’ll take the road team and the streak.
Barzal leads the Islanders with 17 goals and 38 assists and has notched a helper in three straight since the Olympic break. He’s got 18 assists across 31 road games this season and already had one against Anaheim in their lone meeting. Barzal’s playmaking is a constant, and at -118 I’m comfortable he dishes one tonight.
The rookie defenseman has been a revelation for the Islanders, scoring seven goals over his last 10 games with 10 total points. Schaefer has cashed the over 2.5 SOG prop in six of his last eight games, and with Pulock out of the lineup, he’s going to see even more ice time on the top pairing alongside Mayfield.
Anaheim allows 28.92 shots per game (21st) and their 5-on-5 high-danger chance share of 49.75% means they’re not exactly locking things down defensively. Schaefer should have plenty of runway to fire from the point.
Odds as of March 4 via consensus sportsbooks. New bettors can claim the FanDuel promo code and grab a sign-up bonus for tonight’s NHL odds.
The Islanders vs Ducks odds are essentially a pick’em, with both sides trading around -110 on the moneyline. The puck line has the Ducks at -1.5 (+215) and the Islanders at +1.5 (-265), while the total sits at 6.5 (-115 over, -105 under).
I’d lean under on the total given the head-to-head history in Anaheim (under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings at Honda Center), but the Ducks’ tendency toward high-scoring games at home (averaging 6.60 combined goals in their last 10 home games) keeps me off it as an offical pick.
Forwards:
Ondrej Palat – Bo Horvat – Mathew Barzal
Jonathan Drouin – Calum Ritchie – Emil Heineman
Anders Lee – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Simon Holmstrom
Kyle MacLean – Casey Cizikas – Marc Gatcomb
Defense:
Matthew Schaefer – Scott Mayfield
Adam Pelech – Tony DeAngelo
Carson Soucy – Adam Boqvist
Goalie: David Rittich (confirmed)
Rittich carries a 13-8-3 record with a 2.63 GAA and .899 save percentage this season. His numbers haven’t been flashy, but his career record against Anaheim is hard to ignore. Jonathan Drouin returns to the lineup after missing Sunday’s game with a lower-body injury.
Ryan Pulock (upper body) is out after leaving Sunday’s game. Kyle Palmieri (ACL), Alexander Romanov (upper body) and Semyon Varlamov (knee) also remain sidelined.
Forwards:
Chris Kreider – Leo Carlsson – Cutter Gauthier
Jeffrey Viel – Mason McTavish – Beckett Sennecke
Alex Killorn – Ryan Poehling – Jansen Harkins
Ross Johnston – Tim Washe – Ian Moore
Defense:
Jackson LaCombe – Jacob Trouba
Olen Zellweger – Radko Gudas
Pavel Mintyukov – Drew Helleson
Goalie: Ville Husso (expected)
Husso hasn’t started since January 26 and owns a 6-5-1 record with a 3.26 GAA and .882 save percentage. He allowed five goals on 37 shots in December’s matchup with the Islanders, and his last start was a rough 4-7 loss to Edmonton where he gave up five on 30 shots.
The Ducks didn’t hold a morning skate after Tuesday’s loss. Troy Terry (upper body), Mikael Granlund (upper body) and Frank Vatrano (shoulder) remain out, while Ryan Strome is a healthy scratch. Petr Mrazek is done for the season.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
