Leafs 2-8 ATS in Past Ten, +164 Road Dogs vs Lightning on February 25

Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs are +164 underdogs for Tuesday night's road game against Tampa Bay. Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 25, 2020
  • Bolts are 10-0 SU on home ice heading into action on Tuesday night and head-to-head, while Tampa Bay has defeated Toronto eight times over last 10 meetings
  • Get the odds, analysis and best bets for tonight’s game here

The Toronto Maple Leafs will go from facing a 42-year-old beer league goaltender to taking on one of the best in the NHL on Tuesday night, February 25, 2020.

The Leafs, who are a dismal 2-8 against the spread over their last 10 games, are +164 underdogs as they prepare to take on Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning on the road.

Coming off their most embarrassing defeat of the season, can the Maple Leafs regroup and steal a game in Tampa? Here’s a closer look at the odds for Tuesday night with the best bet for the Atlantic Division matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at BetOnline
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-145) +164 O 6.5 (-129)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+125) -182 U 6.5 (+117)

Odds taken on Feb. 24

Toronto, clinging on to the third spot in the Atlantic Division, is coming off its most embarrassing defeat of the season on Saturday, losing to emergency goalie David Ayres. The Toronto Marlies Zamboni driver was pressed into duty after Carolina goalies James Reimer and Petr Mrazek exited with injuries.

The result didn’t go in Toronto’s favor — losing 6-3 and while only generating eight shots on goal against Ayres.

On Tuesday, the road gets a little tougher against Vasilevskiy, whose 32 wins lead all goaltenders this season. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner has a solid .916 save percentage and 2.58 goals-against average.

Maple Leafs Have Been Dismal Against the Spread

Over their last 10 games, the Leafs own a dismal 2-8 record against the spread. They are 2-7 ATS as the underdog heading into action on Tuesday night.

Is there any reason to believe the Leafs are worth betting on as the +164 underdogs?

Toronto stood firm at the trade deadline, which means this will be the same team that suffered that loss to the Canes just three days ago. The Leafs are 16-14-1 on the road this season, but the team has dropped four of its last five games away from Scotiabank Arena.

Tampa Bay on the other hand rarely loses on home ice. The Bolts own a 20-7-2 record at Amalie Arena this season and have won their last 11 games on home ice. Taking the Bolts straight up at home may not have big payouts, but it’s a safe wager these days.

Bolts Have Dominated Head-to-Head Matchup vs Leafs

If you’re basing your betting decision on head-to-head matchups, it’s likely a no-brainer as Tampa Bay has won 8 of its last 10 against the Maple Leafs. The Lightning have won the last three meetings, averaging 5.30 goals per game in that span. The rest of the stats are just as lopsided, with Tampa averaging 40% power play efficiency and are 83% on the penalty kill against the Maple Leafs over their last three meetings.

While taking the Leafs SU doesn’t seem like the logical choice, there’s value in betting on the Over/Under.

BetOnline has set the total goals at 6.5 and it’s important to note that two of the last three meetings between the Leafs and Bolts have resulted in “Over” outcomes.

Tampa Bay has played in four straight games that went “Over” the projected mark, while three of the last four for the Leafs have also gone “Over”.

Pick the Lightning with an ‘Over” outcome, as this should be another high-scoring affair.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (-182)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.