Leafs vs Golden Knights Prediction, Picks & Mitch Marner Props for Wednesday (Jan. 15)

• The Golden Knights are -138 home favorites over the Maple Leafs on Thursday night
• Mitch Marner faces his former team for the first time since leaving Toronto this summer
• See my Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights prediction and Mitch Marner props for Thursday’s ESPN showdown below

The Golden Knights (22-11-12) host the Maple Leafs (23-16-7) tonight in what should be an emotional affair at T-Mobile Arena. Vegas is riding a 5-game winning streak and enters as home chalk per the latest NHL odds, despite playing on the back end of a back-to-back after beating LA 3-2 in overtime last night.

The main storyline is Mitch Marner facing his former team for the first time since the sign-and-trade that sent him to Vegas this summer. Marner spent 9 seasons in Toronto and ranks 6th in franchise history with 741 points.

Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET / 6:30 pm PT, with ESPN handling the national broadcast.

Here is my Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights prediction, along with the latest odds and a Mitch Marner prop for Thursday night.

Leafs vs Golden Knights Prediction

I’m backing the Golden Knights moneyline at -130. Vegas is playing its best hockey of the season right now, and I’m not worried about them being on a back-to-back after beating LA in overtime last night.

Toronto has the rest advantage after last playing Tuesday, but the Leafs looked awful in that 6-1 drubbing at Utah. They allowed 41 shots in that game and went 0-for-3 on the power play. Vegas is 5-0 in their last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation, which is exactly where they find themselves tonight.

The Golden Knights are also 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. They’re getting healthier at the right time, with Adin Hill returning to the crease. The Stanley Cup champ owns a career .909 save percentage in nearly 200 games played.

Joseph Woll is back between the pipes for Toronto. He’s been excellent this season with a .920 save percentage, but he’s facing a motivated Vegas squad that will want to end this game quick after going to overtime last night.

The Leafs are 7-11-2 on the road and have dropped 6 of their last 8 away games. More concerning is their defensive structure – they rank 32nd in shots against per game at 31.37, which is a problem against a Vegas team that ranks 10th in shots for at 28.84 per game.

TOR vs VGK: Advanced Stats (Last 10 Games)

Looking at the advanced metrics from the last 10 games, Toronto is getting badly outplayed despite their 7-1-2 record. They’re posting just 39.80% chance of high danger and surviving on a 1.027 PDO, which indicates regression is coming.

Vegas has better underlying numbers, with a 53.98% high-danger chance percentage. Their 84.66% save percentage over the last 10 is the concern, but Hill’s return should help. While he hasn’t played much this season due to injury, he’ll be a big part of Vegas’s Stanley Cup odds push now that he’s healthy.

Marner facing his former team adds extra motivation for Vegas. The T-Mobile Arena crowd will be fired up, and the Knights should control this game from start to finish.

Mitch Marner Props

The revenge game narrative is real, and Marner over 0.5 assists at -142 (DraftKings) is my favorite player prop for this matchup. He’s been automatic at home this season, posting an assist in all but 7 home games at T-Mobile Arena.

Marner has 36 assists in 45 games and leads the Golden Knights in helpers. He’s coming off a hot stretch with 2 goals and 5 assists in his last 5 outings, including multi-point games in 3 of his last 4.

Toronto allows 3.217 goals against per game, which ranks 24th in the NHL. Their team save percentage of .897 ranks 9th, but they’re getting peppered nightly with 31.37 shots against per game. That’s a recipe for Marner opportunities.

The Leafs also struggle on the road, allowing 3.60 goals per game away from home. Vegas boasts the 4th best power play in the league at 26.47%, and Marner plays alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone on that dangerous unit. If Toronto takes penalties like they did against Utah, Marner will feast.

Mitch Marner 2025-26 Stats

Marner has gone over 0.5 assists in 70% of his games over the last 20 outings. Against a Leafs defense missing Chris Tanev and potentially Nicholas Robertson, the matchup gets even better.

This is personal for Marner. He left Toronto after 9 seasons when the relationship soured following another playoff disappointment. The 28-year-old will want to prove he made the right call, and setting up his linemates is what he does best.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Odds

Vegas is currently -130 at Bet365 on the moneyline, while you can grab Toronto at +118 on Caesars if you’re looking for underdog value. The Golden Knights are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +185 odds (Bet365).

The total varies by book, with some offering 5.5 and others at 6.5. The over is -135 at DraftKings for the 5.5 line, while the under 6.5 sits at -134 on FanDuel.

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Odds as of Jan. 15th. Best available lines shown across DraftKings, Bet365, and other major sportsbooks.

Public betting data shows the over is getting heavy action based on the H2H trends. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and 5-2 in the last 7 in Vegas. The moneyline market shows sharp money taking shots at Toronto as a plus-money dog while the public backs the hot Vegas team.

How to Watch Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights

ESPN has the national broadcast for this Thursday night showdown. Canadian viewers can catch it on TSN4.

Puck drop is set for 9:30 pm ET / 6:30 pm PT from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the second half of ESPN’s hockey doubleheader, following Flyers-Penguins at 7 pm ET.