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Leafs vs Lightning Prediction, Odds, Props & Starting Goalies (Apr. 17)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Updated Apr 17, 2024 · 1:26 PM PDT

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews talks to Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov
Mar 11, 2019; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) talks to Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) in the second period at Scotiabank Arena. The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs play their final game of the regular season tonight
  • The Wednesday NHL odds favor the Lightning to win at home
  • Read below for Leafs vs Lightning prediction, odds, and starting goalies

Both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning already know who they will play in Round 1 of the NHL Playoff Bracket, essentially rendering Wednesday’s regular-season finale meaningless. However, that doesn’t mean the players don’t have anything to play for.

Auston Matthews can record his historic 70th goal of the season tonight, while Nikita Kucherov can collect his 100th assist. These NHL props have been factored into our Lightning vs Leafs prediction for Wednesday.

Let’s dive into the odds and tell you how we’re betting this game (barring both star players suit up).

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
TOR Maple Leafs +1.5 (-210) +125 Over 6.5 (+100)
TB Lightning -1.5 (+175) -150 Under 6.5 (-120)

The Lightning are a heavy -150 moneyline favorite over the Leafs in the Wednesday NHL odds, giving them an implied win probability.


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Odds as of April 17, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on Leafs vs Lightning.

Bolts Favored in Wednesday NHL Odds

The Tampa Bay Lightning are the home favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Wednesday NHL odds as they aim to enter the postseason on a winning note. Tampa Bay has dropped three straight games, including a 4-2 loss to Buffalo in their most recent outing.

The Leafs are available as road underdogs as they enter with a losing streak of their own. Toronto has dropped two straight games, including an ugly 5-2 defeat to the Florida Panthers in their most recent showing on Monday night.

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Home-ice advantage has been factored into this NHL betting line, as Tampa Bay is 24-11-5 at Amalie Arena this season. The Leafs, however, have a solid road record at 24-10-5. The Bolts have won six of their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record.

The Maple Leafs (46-25-10, 102 points) hold a 2-1 edge in the season series against the Lightning after recording a pair of overtime wins in the first two matchups and losing most recently in regulation on April 3.

Matthews + Kucherov Prop Bets

With both teams locked into their first-round playoff matchup, the focus turns to player milestones in this regular-season finale. Auston Matthews needs one more goal to become the league’s first 70-goal scorer since 1992. Kucherov, meanwhile, needs one more assist to hit the 100-assist milestone.

Here are the current odds for these props at Bet365. If you visit the same-game parlay section of their sportsbook, you can combine these two outcomes for +140 odds. Bet this NHL SGP here .

Prop Odds
Auston Matthews Goal -145
Nikita Kucherov 1+ assists -230
SGP Odds +140

We love the odds on Matthews to score, as he will be facing Tampa Bay backup goalie Matt Tomkins. The 29-year-old has managed a lackluster .891 save percentage in five appearances this season, all against teams that rank bottom-10 in the league.

Kucherov has heavy -200 odds to record an assist in the game, which makes sense given his production against Toronto. In 34 career games against the Blues and White, Kucherov has dished out 24 helpers and collected 42 points.

Leafs vs Lightning Prediction

Sharp bettors are all over the Lightning in this game, as the moneyline has shifted from -125 to -150. It’s hard to feel overly confident in Tampa Bay without Andrei Vasilevskiy, but the Leafs are projected to turn to third-stringer Martin Jones (.908 SV%), who also doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Over their past 10 games, the Leafs have a 57.15 xGF%, while the Bolts have a 48.89 GF%. We’d lean toward Tampa Bay if we were picking a winner due to home-ice advantage, but we’re sticking to the props market, as that’s where we expect the teams to focus their objectives.

TOR vs TBL Picks:

  • Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (-145)
  • Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 Assists (-230)
  • SGP (+140 at Bet365 )


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