Leafs vs Panthers Game 3 Prediction, Pick & Odds for Friday (May. 9)

• The Panthers are -240 moneyline favorites over the Maple Leafs in Game 3 of their 2nd Round playoff series
• Toronto leads the best-of-seven series 2-0
• Check out my Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 3 prediction and pick, along with the top odds below

The Florida Panthers find themselves in a 2-0 hole as their series against the Toronto Maple Leafs shifts to Sunrise for Game 3. Despite the deficit, online sportsbooks are favoring the Panthers to get right back into this NHL playoff battle on home ice.

The puck is set to drop at 7:00pm ET at the Amerant Bank Arena, with TNT handling the national broadcast.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Prediction

I’m predicting the Panthers take care of business on home ice and win Game 3 by multiple goals. Florida has controlled the run of play in both contests, but only has two one-goal losses to show for it.

The Panthers have out-chanced and out-shot Toronto in Games 1 and 2, ranking 4th among playoff teams in goals above expected. This suggests positive regression is on the horizon for a Florida squad that tallied the 4th most goals per game this postseason.

Sergei Bobrovsky’s performance is a bit concerning, as the veteran netminder owns a subpar .876 save percentage in the playoffs. However, he has a track record of bouncing back strong as a series progresses. In fact, Bobrovsky posted a stellar .914 save percentage during last year’s Stanley Cup-winning run after some early hiccups.

Sergei Bobrovsky vs Joseph Woll Playoff Stats

On the flip side, Joseph Woll will get the nod between the pipes for Toronto in Game 3. The young goalie has an inflated 4.01 goals against average in the playoffs, allowing seven goals on only 56 shots faced versus Florida. He represents a clear downgrade from Anthony Stolarz, who left Game 1 with an injury.

Maple Leafs vs Panthers Pick

• Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5 (+115 at Bet365)

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I have two more key reasons why I’m backing the Panthers to cover the -1.5 puck line. Firstly, Florida’s issues in Games 1 and 2 largely stemmed from sloppy puck management in the neutral zone, leading to transition chances against. However, head coach Paul Maurice has emphasized tactical adjustments to shore up these correctable breakdowns.

Additionally, the Panthers’ power play, which ranked 5th in efficiency during the playoffs, should feast on a Maple Leafs penalty kill that sits 7th. On the flip side, Toronto’s power play is just 1-for-8 in the series and now has to face off against Florida’s suffocating 88.5% PK unit, 2nd best in the postseason.

Lastly, I expect the Panthers to ride the energy of their raucous home crowd. Florida was an elite 28-13-2 at Amerant Bank Arena during the regular season and has racked up the most home playoff wins (15) of any team over the past two postseasons.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Odds

The top price on the Panthers puck line is +115 at bet365. Florida is a heavy -240 moneyline favorite, while Toronto comes back at +195. The game total is set at 6 goals, with the Over juiced to +100.

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Odds as of May 9th at Bet365. Claim the Bet365 bonus code to wager on Leafs-Panthers. Toronto residents should check out Bet99 for an $800 first bet encore.

Taking a look at the NHL betting trends, the public is heavily backing the Leafs at +1.5, with 63% of bets on that side.. However, most models and sharp money indicators point to value on the Panthers -1.5 ticket.

Historically, Florida has won 4 of the past 5 matchups in this rivalry played in Sunrise, with 3 of those victories coming by multiple goals.