Leafs vs Panthers Prediction, Pick, Odds & Projected Lineups (Jan. 6)

• The Panthers visit Toronto as slight road favorites despite missing seven players to injury
• Florida just beat Colorado’s 10-game win streak while Toronto continues blowing late leads
• See my Panthers vs Leafs prediction for Monday’s matchup at Scotiabank Arena, plus odds and best picks

The Panthers (22-16-3) head to Toronto on Monday night as slight road favorites despite missing Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and five other players. The Maple Leafs (19-15-7) have points in six straight games behind Auston Matthews’ record-breaking run, but they can’t hold leads.

Florida just knocked off Colorado 2-1 on Sunday, snapping the Avalanche’s 10-game winning streak. Toronto blew two third-period leads Saturday in an overtime loss to the Islanders. Coach Craig Berube called them out for sitting back with the lead.

Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET from Scotiabank Arena. Here’s my Panthers vs Leafs prediction for Monday night, along with betting odds and best picks.

Panthers vs Leafs Prediction

• Panthers vs Leafs Pick: Panthers ML (-115 at Bet365)

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My Panthers vs Leafs prediction for Monday is Florida winning in Toronto. The Panthers just proved something Sunday by beating the league’s hottest team while missing their two best forwards. Toronto keeps giving up late goals, and that’s not changing anytime soon based on how they play with the lead.

The advanced numbers favor Florida over their last 10 games at 5-on-5. The Panthers are controlling 49.88% of shot attempts compared to Toronto’s 46.39%. They’re getting better goaltending too, posting a 90.72% save percentage versus the Leafs’ 89.07%.

Toronto’s shooting 10.95% at 5-on-5 compared to Florida’s 8.70%, which explains why they’re staying competitive. But that kind of shooting percentage isn’t sustainable when Matthews is carrying the offense. Florida’s expected goals percentage sits at 50.25% versus Toronto’s 48.80%.

Advanced Stats

The Panthers are controlling play better across the board. Toronto’s high-danger chances percentage is slightly better at 48.13% versus 46.51%, but they’re not converting enough to make up for getting outplayed everywhere else.

Toronto’s problem is defending with the lead. They’ve blown multiple third-period leads recently, including two against the Islanders on Saturday. Berube called them out for sitting back too much. Florida’s 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, and they know how to close out wins.

Florida gets Sergei Bobrovsky in net tonight after Tarasov’s strong performance Sunday. Bob’s been better lately with three or fewer goals allowed in 9 of his last 11 starts (7-3-1). He’s 16-10-1 career against Toronto with a .906 save percentage and 2.67 GAA. Those numbers aren’t amazing, but he’s trending up even if his overall season stats (2.84 GAA, .885 SV%) look mediocre.

Matthews is on fire with 10 points in his last four games, but one player can’t fix a team that keeps blowing leads. The Panthers are playing with belief right now. They know how to grind out wins when they’re not at full strength, and Toronto’s been handing out late goals like candy.

Panthers vs Leafs Odds

The Panthers at -115 on the moneyline carry an implied probability of 53.5% to win. You’d risk $115 to win $100, returning $215 total on a winning bet. The Leafs at -105 have an implied probability of 51.2%, meaning you’d risk $105 to win $100.

This line is basically a coin flip with Florida getting slight favoritism on the road while missing seven players. Books saw what Florida did against Colorado and don’t trust Toronto to hold a lead.

The puck line at -1.5 (+200) for Florida means they need to win by 2 or more goals. You’d profit $200 on a $100 bet. Toronto gives up late goals constantly, but I’d rather take the straight moneyline in what should be tight.

Toronto +1.5 at -245 means they can lose by one and still cover. You’d need to risk $245 to win $100. That’s way too much juice to lay on a team that’s been blowing leads.

The total at 6.0 is priced evenly. Over 6.0 at -115 and under 6.0 at -105 are basically a pick’em. Matthews is hot and both teams can score, but Florida’s playing tight defense after holding Colorado to one goal. I’m staying away from this total.

NHL betting odds as of Jan. 6 at Bet365 Sportsbook.

Panthers vs Leafs Projected Lineups

Florida Panthers

Forwards

Defense

Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (starter), Daniil Tarasov

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forwards

Defense

Goalies: Joseph Woll (starter), Dennis Hildeby

Florida’s missing Aleksander Barkov (knee), Matthew Tkachuk (lower body), Seth Jones (upper body, week-to-week), Dmitry Kulikov (shoulder), Tomas Nosek (knee), Jonah Gadjovich (upper body), and Cole Schwindt (arm).

Toronto is without William Nylander (lower body, on IR but could return soon), Jake McCabe (lower body, out up to a week), Anthony Stolarz (upper body), Chris Tanev (groin), Dakota Mermis (lower body), and Dakota Joshua (kidney). Brandon Carlo returns tonight after missing 23 games with an ankle injury.

How to Watch Panthers vs Leafs

Monday’s game starts at 7:30 PM ET from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Sportsnet Ontario will carry the broadcast in Canada, while TNT and HBO Max have coverage in the United States.