Lightning vs Sabres Best Bets, Picks and Props

• The Lightning are short road favorites tonight versus the Sabres, in a game with a 6.5 goal total
• The over has cashed in four straight matchups between these two teams
• Keep reading for my favorite Lightning vs Sabres best bets and picks, plus which props to bet and the latest odds

The top two teams in the Atlantic Division clash tonight, as the playoff bound Lightning and Sabres meet in Buffalo. Tampa Bay arrives riding a two-game winning streak and holding onto first place in the division, while the Sabres are desperate to snap a brief two-game skid and leapfrog their rivals to secure a more favorable postseason draw.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Lightning as short road favorites in the NHL odds, but I’m bypassing the spread and moneyline markets to focus on the game’s 6.5 goal total.

Puck drop is set for just after 7:00 PM ET from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY, with NHL Network providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my favorite Lightning vs Sabres best bets and picks, plus which player props to bet and the latest odds.

Lightning vs Sabres Best Bets and Picks

• Over 6.5 Goals (-108 at DraftKings)

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I’m betting over 6.5 goals tonight, expecting a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. The over has hit in each of the last four head-to-head meetings between these franchises, and the road hasn’t slowed down Tampa Bay’s goal-scoring environment. Each of their last six games away from home have exceeded the total, including an 8-7 defeat to Buffalo the last time they met.

As for Buffalo, they consistently find themselves in shootouts against quality competition on home ice. The Sabres have seen the over cash in 8 of their last 9 home games against opponents with a winning record. Tampa Bay and Buffalo are two of the seven highest scoring teams in the NHL, and their respective offensive prowess is a big reason why they’re legit Stanley Cup odds contenders.

Lightning vs Sabres Stats

Tampa Bay averages a blistering 3.59 goals per game, with Buffalo close behind at 3.39. In addition to these potent attacks, neither club boasts a team save percentage above the .900 mark. Elite finishing combined with underwhelming goaltending metrics provides a massive statistical foundation for backing a high-scoring result.

Lightning vs Sabres Props

• Alex Tuch Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+138 at Bet365)
• Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-133 at Bet365)

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Moving over to the NHL props market, where I’m locking in a pair of shots on goal wagers.

Getting plus-money on Alex Tuch to simply register three shots on net is tremendous value when you look at his numbers. Tuch is 5-1 (83.3%) versus this prop line in his last six games against top-10 scoring defenses. He is averaging 3.5 shots on goal per game over that span, making this +138 consensus line a high-value misprice by the bookmakers.

Tampa Bay’s Jake Guentzel meanwhile, is firing the puck with staggering consistency. Guentzel has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 5 of his last 7 games overall (71.4%), averaging 3.14 shots per contest. My projection model completely supports this trend, currently slating the winger for 3.1 shots and over 20 minutes of ice time tonight, with plenty of 5-on-5 and power play opportunities to help cash this ticket.

Lightning vs Sabres Odds

Odds as of April 6. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on the Lightning vs Sabres matchup.

If you want to tail my picks tonight, you’ll need access to multiple sportsbooks. Bet365 has the best odds on both of my player prop wagers, while DraftKings is offering the shortest juice on over 6.5 goals.

At the time of writing, the Lightning are currently -115 moneyline favorites, with the Sabres coming back as +100 underdogs.

The most popular bet by far right now in NHL public betting circles is over 6.5 goals, as 94% of the tickets and 95% of money wagered is banking on another high scoring contest between these two teams.