Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Prediction, Picks, Odds & Betting Trends (Tuesday, March. 10)

• I’ve made my Maple Leafs vs Canadiens prediction for Tuesday’s Original Six clash at Bell Centre
• Toronto is winless in seven straight while Montreal is 9-2-1 at home since mid-December and scoring 4.60 goals per game since the break
• My Maple Leafs vs Canadiens picks, odds and betting trends are all below

The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-26-11) visit the Montreal Canadiens (34-18-10) on Tuesday night in a rivalry game that couldn’t be more lopsided. Toronto is winless in seven straight since the Olympic break and sits last in the Atlantic. Montreal holds the top Wild Card spot and has won seven of their last nine at Bell Centre.

The Leafs’ 3.48 goals against per game is their worst mark since 1990-91, and every other season they’ve allowed that many, they missed the playoffs. Montreal is scoring 4.60 per game since the break, trailing only Edmonton.

Puck drop is set for 7 pm ET on Sportsnet. Check out my Maple Leafs vs Canadiens prediction, picks and odds below.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Prediction

• Canadiens -1.5 (+145 at DraftKings)

I’m taking Montreal on the puck line for my Maple Leafs vs Canadiens prediction. The Canadiens have covered in 17 of their last 25 games and are 9-2-1 at home since December 18. Their last game at Bell Centre was a 6-2 thrashing of the Capitals on February 28. They’ve scored six or more goals in five home games this season, the most since 1996-97.

Toronto is 0-9 in their last nine against Eastern Conference opponents and 0-6 against Atlantic teams. The Leafs allow 31.95 shots per game (worst in the NHL) and have scored just 2.00 goals per game since the break. They also lost Chris Tanev for the season to core muscle surgery, gutting their top defensive pair.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Key Stats

The home team has won 14 of the last 18 meetings in this rivalry, and the Canadiens have seven of their next nine at Bell Centre. Nick Suzuki has nine points (three goals, six assists) in his last four games, the most by any Montreal skater in a four-game span this season. Montreal is clicking, and Toronto is falling apart.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Picks

• Lane Hutson Over 0.5 Assists (-182 at DraftKings)

Hutson has 53 assists in 62 games this season, operating at a point-per-game pace that only four defensemen in the league can match. The Calder Trophy winner from last season has been even better in year two, logging 23:41 per night and quarterbacking Montreal’s top power-play unit with 17 PP assists.

He’s recorded an assist in four of his last five games and has a three-game streak rolling into tonight. He set up both of Caufield’s goals in the March 6 comeback against Anaheim. The -186 is steep, but Hutson has recorded an assist in five straight following a win, and Toronto allows the most shots in the NHL.

• Cole Caufield Over 1.5 Points (+197 at Caesars)

Caufield has 37 goals and 27 assists this season, shooting at a career-best 19.6% clip. He’s been on fire since the Olympic break with five goals and an assist in four games, and he has 11 goals and four assists in 19 career games against Toronto (0.79 points per game). He’s also averaged exactly four shots on goal in all three matchups with the Leafs this season.

This line was bumped from 0.5 to 1.5 after sharp action, but +197 still has value. Caufield had six points in his last four games entering tonight. With Hutson feeding him on the power play and Woll’s .902 SV% on the other end, a multi-point game is in play.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Odds

The Maple Leafs vs Canadiens odds have Montreal as a -170 home favorite with Toronto at +145. The puck line is Canadiens -1.5 (+140) and Maple Leafs +1.5 (-160). The total is set at 6.5, with the over at -125 and under at +105.

Montreal’s -170 moneyline carries roughly a 63% implied probability. The over has hit in four straight Canadiens games as a favorite and in four of Toronto’s last five following a loss. Neither goalie has a shutout this season, and both carry save percentages around .900. This game has goals written all over it.

Odds as of March 10 via consensus sportsbooks. New American customers can grab the BetMGM promo code for a bonus on tonight’s NHL odds. Canadian residents should use the Bet99 promo code.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Betting Trends

The public is overwhelmingly on Montreal tonight. About 94% of the moneyline handle and 90% of tickets are on the Canadiens. The over is drawing even heavier action, with 95% of the money on goals.

Normally that kind of lopsided action is a contrarian fade signal, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers here. Toronto is 0-9 vs the East and allows 3.48 goals per game. Montreal is 9-2-1 at home since December 18 and scoring 4.60 GPG since the break. The public is on the right side.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Recent Meetings

The home team has won 14 of the last 18 overall meetings, and the under is 10-3-2 in the last 15 in Montreal. That under trend is worth watching, but current form points to goals tonight.

Joseph Woll gets the start for Toronto (13-10-4, 2.98 GAA). He’s allowed five goals in each of his last two starts and has a .783 and .821 SV% in those outings. Jakub Dobes is confirmed for Montreal (20-6-4, 3.03 GAA), coming off a 36-save win over the Kings on Saturday. Dobes is 10-1-2 in his last 13 games.