Lightning vs Maple Leafs March 10 Betting Preview: Toronto Home Underdogs for First Time This Season

Zach Hyman
The Maple Leafs are only one-point ahead of the Florida Panthers in the playoff race. Photo by Tom Szczerbowski (Wikimedia Commons)
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday, March 10, 2020, at 7:00 pm EST
  • The “Over” has hit both times these teams played this season
  • See the odds and best bets for tonight’s game, which sees Tampa Bay as the road favorite

The Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds have Toronto as the -105 underdogs versus Tampa Bay on Tuesday, March 10, 2020, at 7:00 pm EST. The Maple Leafs are looking to rebound from an unsuccessful California road trip and close the standings gap between themselves and division rival Tampa Bay.

The Lightning and Maple Leafs respectively rank first and third in the NHL among scoring and are expected to engage in another high-scoring affair tonight. Tampa Bay scored first in each of the previous two times these teams faced each other this season, both of whom are 1-1-0 in the season series. The winner of their game led after the first and second periods.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+205) -115 O 6.5 (-115)
Toronto +1.5 (-245) -105 U 6.5 (-105)

Odds taken Mar. 9

First Time Leafs are Home Dogs

Tonight’s game against Tampa Bay will be the first Toronto is a home underdog this season. Despite a 17-9-7 home record this season, the Leafs haven’t fared too well among betting trends when playing at Scotiabank Arena.

They’re 16-16 on the moneyline, 10-22 with the spread, and 15-16-1 among totals when at home this season. They haven’t fared any better as underdogs, in general, this season, going 5-7 on moneyline wagers, 7-5 with the spread, and 9-3-0 among totals. If these previous trends are any indication, tread carefully if this is a primary determinant when making your final picks.

Over Hit Both Times in Team’s Previous Matches

When these teams first met in October, Tampa Bay won 7-3, while Toronto took the second match 4-3. The “Over” hit each time these teams played this season, over which a total of 17 goals were scored between both squads. The Leafs and Lightning are scoring below their respective season averages over the last month.

Tampa has averaged 3.51 goals a game in 2019-2020 but has maintained 3.21 goals per game since February 10. Toronto is averaging 3.41 goals a game this season, but netting 2.76 a game over the last month. Despite their struggles as of late (both have gone 4-5-1 in their last 10 games), expectations for a high-scoring affair should be high when two of the league’s three highest-scoring teams play.

Lightning Finishing Chances

One category where Tampa Bay has been very successful this season is their ability to generate and finish on their chances. At five-on-five, the Lightning average 53.91 percent of their game’s expected goals, which is third in the NHL.

Tampa Bay is averaging 54.27 percent of their game’s five-on-five scoring chances (SCF) and 59.11 percent of goals off of scoring chances (SCGF), which respectively rank third and first in the league. The Lightning have had an average of 54.32 percent of their game’s high danger chances (HDCF) and scored 58.67 of goals off high danger chances, which respectively rank fourth and second in the NHL.

Best Bets

Yes, both teams have struggled as of late, with Toronto scoring well below their season average and the Lightning losing captain Steven Stamkos for 6-8 weeks, but this should still be another exciting division matchup between two of the league’s offensive juggernauts. With Toronto’s struggles at covering wagers at home, the Tampa Bay Lightning appear to have a solid edge tonight.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (-115), Over 6.5 (-115)

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