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Odds For 2019 Calder Trophy: Pettersson Listed as Heavy -7500 Favorite; Is There Value in Betting Binnington?

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in NHL Hockey

May 28, 2019 · 10:33 AM PDT

Blues goalie Jordan Binnington.
St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington only played half the year, but was as good as almost any goalie in the league in his rookie season. Photo by Twitter user
  • Elias Pettersson, Jordan Binnington & Rasmus Dahlin are the nominees for the NHL Rookie of the Year award
  • Jordan Binnington won 24 of 30 games in his rookie season and owned the leagues top GAA
  • Binnington lead the Blues from last place in the league to the Stanley Cup Final

Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson is the overwhelming favorite to win the NHL’s rookie of the year award.  Should he be?  There’s a strong case to be made for a certain St. Louis Blues rookie who just so happens to still be playing in the Stanley Cup Final.

2019 Calder Trophy Odds

Nominee Odds
Elias Pettersson (Canucks) -7500
Jordan Binnington (Blues) +750
Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres) +1800

*Odds as of 5/28/19.

Pettersson could definitely win the award after a great freshman campaign for the Canucks.  If I had a vote however, it would have been for Jordan Binnington of the Blues and the fact you can still bet him at +750 presents an opportunity to cash in on some crazy value.

Binnington NHL’s Newest Superstar

January 3rd of this season the St. Louis Blues sat dead-last in the league.  They are now in the Stanley Cup final thanks in large part to the decision to put Jordan Binnington between the pipes. While the playoff run doesn’t have anything to do with Rookie of the Year voting, the wins and numbers he racked up getting them from dead-last to within one point of winning the Central Division do.

Binnington finished the year with a 24-5-1 record with a 1.89 goals against average and .927 save percentage.

That GAA was ranked 1st in the league and his SV% was tied for 4th.  There isn’t a way you can break down the numbers and not arrive at the conclusion he was one of the best goalies in the game, regardless of his age.

The Case Against Pettersson

It’s tough to be negative about a season as good as Pettersson’s, but the reality is it just doesn’t stack up well against Binnington.

Where the Blues goalie was a league leader in many categories, Pettersson was good not great.  He had 28 goals which was tied for 48th best and his 66 points ranked tied for 59th.

He was the definition of impressive “as a rookie,” but as I mapped out above, Binnington wasn’t just impressive as a rookie, he emerged as a true superstar in goal.

The Pettersson hype train rolled along all season and that may be enough to win the trophy but he isn’t deserving of being -7500 and provides absolutely no value at that price tag.  His backers will say Binnington only played half the year but Pettersson himself missed 11 games.

I’d call this award a coin flip where one side of the coin is paying -7500 and the other nets you +750.  With that info in hand, you know what to do.

PICK: Jordan Binnington (+750)

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