Oilers vs Penguins Prediction, Prop Picks, Odds & Starting Goalies (Dec. 16)

• Tristan Jarry returns to Pittsburgh for the first time since Friday’s blockbuster trade sent him to Edmonton for Stuart Skinner
• The Penguins have lost five straight and can’t hold leads, while the Oilers are 7-1 in their last eight meetings
• I’ve got my Oilers vs Penguins prediction for Tuesday’s matchup at PPG Paints Arena, plus odds and prop picks

Tuesday’s marquee NHL matchup reads like a Hollywood script. Tristan Jarry makes his first start against Pittsburgh since the Penguins dealt him to Edmonton on Friday, while Stuart Skinner goes the other way and debuts for his new team against the squad that traded him.

The Oilers (15-12-6) come in off a 4-1 loss to Montreal on Saturday, while the Penguins (14-8-9) are in freefall with five straight losses. Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET from PPG Paints Arena, and I expect Edmonton to keep rolling in this head-to-head.

Here’s my Oilers vs Penguins prediction for tonight’s game, along with prop picks, starting goalies and NHL betting odds.

Oilers vs Penguins Prediction

• Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers ML (-142 at DraftKings)

I’m backing the Oilers moneyline at -142 odds tonight. Pittsburgh simply can’t close out games right now, and Edmonton has owned this matchup historically.

The Penguins have blown third-period leads in four of their last five games, and head coach Dan Muse called it out after Sunday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Utah. He said he never thought he’d be having the same conversation 24 hours after watching his team squander a four-goal lead against San Jose.

Edmonton is 7-1 in their last eight meetings with Pittsburgh and 4-1 in their last five games at wins, and that offensive firepower paired with Pittsburgh’s inability to protect leads is a brutal combination for the home team.

Matchup Stats

The advanced numbers back Edmonton at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. The Oilers have generated 105 high-danger chances compared to Pittsburgh’s 88, and they’re converting at 16.19% versus 14.77%. Edmonton also controls 52.79% of expected goals, while the Pens are hovering right around 50-50.

Connor McDavid has 16 points in his last six games and sits at 52 points in 33 games this season. Leon Draisaitl needs one point for 1,000 in his career, and Zach Hyman has five goals in his last five. This offense is firing on all cylinders.

The trends are ugly for Pittsburgh. They’re 0-6 in their last six against the Western Conference, 0-5 in their last five home games, and just 1-7 at home in their last eight overall. Meanwhile, Edmonton is 40-14 in their last 54 Tuesday games. Everything points toward the Oilers.

Oilers vs Penguins Prop Picks

NHL player prop odds as of Dec. 16 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best NHL Prop Picks

Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (+126)

Draisaitl sits one point shy of 1,000 for his career, and I don’t think he just reaches the milestone tonight—I think he blows past it. The 29-year-old has 43 points in 33 games this season, and the Oilers have averaged over four goals per game in their last five meetings with Pittsburgh.

Draisaitl has feasted on the Pens throughout his career, notching 11 goals and 20 points in 18 career games against the black and gold. I’ll gladly take plus money on a multi-point night in a game where he’s chasing history.

Zach Hyman Anytime Goal (+180)

Hyman has five goals in his last five games and is heating up at the right time. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill will be tested against Edmonton’s third-ranked power play, which converts at over 30%.

Hyman does a lot of his damage in front of the net on the man advantage, and at +180, I like his chances to find the back of the net in what should be a high-scoring game.

Ben Kindel Over 0.5 Points (+120)

Kindel had a goal and two assists in Pittsburgh’s loss to Utah on Sunday, and he’s been productive lately for a Penguins team that will need offense to keep pace with Edmonton’s attack.

Plus money on a player coming off a three-point game is solid value. Even if Pittsburgh loses, the over has hit in four of the Penguins’ last six home games, so there should be plenty of scoring chances to go around.

Oilers vs Penguins Odds

The Oilers vs Pens odds price Edmonton as -142 favorites on DraftKings. Pittsburgh comes back as +120 underdogs.

The over/under for Oilers vs Penguins is 6.5, with -115 juice shaded toward the Under. While oddsmakers expect plenty of goals, the lean toward the Under implies they don’t see this game getting too out of hand.

The betting public is siding with Edmonton at 67% of bets placed on the moneyline at DraftKings, and I’m with the crowd here.

Oilers vs Penguins Starting Goalies

Jarry gets the start for Edmonton with a 10-3-1 record, 2.69 GAA, and .908 save percentage this season. He made 25 saves in his Oilers debut against Toronto on Saturday, and playing against his former team should add some extra motivation tonight.

Skinner debuts for Pittsburgh after immigration issues delayed his arrival. He posted a 2.83 GAA and .891 save percentage across 23 games with the Oilers before the trade, though the 27-year-old was actually on a strong run before getting dealt. He went 4-2-1 with a 2.15 GAA and .913 save percentage in his last seven starts.

How to Watch Oilers vs Penguins

Tuesday’s game starts at 7:30 PM ET from PPG Paints Arena. Crosby enters two points shy of Mario Lemieux’s franchise record of 1,723 points, so history could be made on both sides tonight.